Zack Greinke SP (MIL) - In keeper leagues, Greinke may be an undervalued commodity. The truth is he is elite. Greinke has a 2.92 FIP and 2.31 xFIP, but a deflated strand rate (66.7 LOB%) has inflated his ERA to 3.92 - making him seem merely average. Greinke's career strand rate is 72%, and he leads the majors with 11.17 strikeouts per 9 innings. That is evidence that his low strand rate this year can be chalked up to nothing more than a bit of randomness and bad luck. Further reason to expect Greinke to post a better ERA both rest of season and next year is that his HR/FB% is at 15%. In each of the past four seasons, Greinke's HR/FB% was below double digits, and his career mark is 8.9%. He could be an undervalued asset for those of you looking for all around starting pitching help down the stretch or a keeper to anchor your staff for next season.
Chris Volstad SP (FLA) - Volstad, despite his 5.60 ERA, makes for a decent sport start option today. A.) He goes up against a poor offense in the San Diego Padres. B.) The game takes place at Petco Park which should help mitigate Volstad's biggest weakness this season - a 17.3 HR/FB%. It's not all bad luck as Volstad has posted a 17+ Hr/FB% in the past. However, against that team and in that park it's worth considering that Volstad's expected ERA with a normal HR/FB% is around 3.71.
Mike Minor SP (ATL) - Minor improved to 3-2 with a victory over the Giants last night. Minor did not give up a run over 6 innings of work and impressively struck out 9 batters while walking just 1. Minor entered the game with 8 starts under his belt in which he compiled a poor 4.84 ERA. At first glance, I want to jump up and proclaim Minor unlucky as his FIP is an outstanding 2.56. However, it's not that simple. For starters that FIP is assuming a normal BABIP for Minor. Currently his is a very high .372, but when you consider his strikeout percentage is just league average and his LD% allowed is a WHOPPING 30.1%, I don't think we can call that BABIP unlucky. Secondly, the FIP rewards Minor for not allowing a homerun yet this season, but it's unreasonable to expect Minor to have a 0 HR/FB%. That's certainly not sustainable, especially since a high LD% can often lead to an elevated HR/FB%. While FIP is a stat that I love and is extremely useful for fantasy owners, it can be misleading like any other stat when not used in context. In Minor's case, he has not been nearly as unlucky as his ERA-FIP gap might indicate.
Ryan Howard 1B (PHI) - Howard was out of the lineup yesterday due to cramping in his right hand. It does not appear to be serious by any means. Howard's decline as a hitter is continuing this season. Last year, we saw his power drop off as his ISO fell to .229 after four straight years at .290+. This season it has stayed down at .235. Those are still really strong numbers, but do show Howard isn't what he once was. His HR/FB% decline over the past several years: 31.8/25.4/21.1/20.3 tells the same story. This season Howard's superb contact at the plate has disappeared. From his rookie season up to last year, Howard posted some monster LD%'s: 26.6/21.9/24.3/22.3/23.2/23.2. However, this season Howard's LD% is only 19.8%, which helps to explain the low average.
Matt Kemp OF (LAD) - Kemp stole his 33rd base of the season last night. It's quite amazing to think that Kemp has already stolen 14 more bases than all of last season, and at the same time he has been caught 10 less times. His success percentage has dramatically increased from 56% (awful) to 89% (amazing). Kemp's dual speed/power threat has made him this year's top fantasy outfielder. Not only has Kemp's success rate been better but his opportunities have increased as Kemp has a career high 10.7 BB% and consequently career high .393 on base percentage. He should remain an elite stolen base threat down the stretch.
