Anthony Swarzak SP (MIN) - I'd avoid starting Swarzak in all leagues today. He has a 3.62 ERA, but an xFIP of 4.87 exposes his true skills - or lack thereof. I'm never a fan of pitchers with low K rates, and Swarzak certainly fits that mold with an underwhelming 4.39 K/9. Unlike some low K rate guys I will roster, Swarzak doesn't make up for his inability to miss bats by obtaining a high percentage of ground balls as evidenced by his 36.7 GB%. Once Swarzak's HR/FB% (5.6%) normalizes, his ERA will rocket upwards. His matchup today is particularly bad as he is pitching in US Cellular Field. According to ESPN's park factors, US Cellular Field has the second highest HR rate in the Majors.
Ricky Romero SP (TOR) - Even though Romero won his 13th game last night and had a 1.66 August ERA heading into the start, I will continue to warn subscribers about him. Similar to last season, Romero is fading as the season wears on and the innings pile up. The August ERA is nice, but a look at the peripherals will leave anyone less than thrilled. Counting last night's start, Romero has walked 16 batters and struck out just 26 in 44 August innings. It's quite similar to the 17 walks and 29 strikeouts Romero issued in 42 innings last August. He went on to post a 4.50 September ERA as his K/BB continued to shrink.
Alcides Escobar SS (KC) - Escobar got off to a very cold start this year and then caught the attention of many fantasy fans with a ridiculous hot streak. I for one was more optimistic than others about Escobar's performance heading into the season, but that optimism has since been curbed. Escobar is still young, but he has taken a step back in a few areas of his game. For starters, his plate discipline has fallen off (EYE dropped to .37 from .51). He has never shown much patience, but after doubling his walk rate last season I saw some light. Well, Escobar put that light out as his 6.5 BB% has dropped to 4.3%. His lack of on base skills (career .290 on base percentage) hurts his runs scored and stolen base opportunities. From a power perspective, no one expected Escobar to be Babe Ruth. However, his drop in ISO from .091 to .078 takes away some extra base hits that could help stabilize his average. Speaking of average, I expected Escobar to take a step forward as his BABIP last season was unlucky considering his high LD% of 21.5%. Unfortunately, that number has fallen to 17.3%. All in all, it's been a disappointing year for Escobar, and his inability to get on base consistently seems like it will prevent fantasy owners from ever benefiting from Escobar's speed that allowed him to steal 42 bases in just 108 AAA games in 2009.
Salvador Perez C (KC) - Perez collected three hits including his first ever Major League homer last night. Perez is just 21 YO, and I don't think his bat will be ready to contribute in most standard mixed leagues the rest of this season or in 2012. He has shown an okay EYE (around .50) throughout the Minor Leagues but really suffers from a lack of patience. Pretty much at every stop he walked around 5 percent of the time and in limited Major League action that has not changed (4.9 BB%). Unfortunately for Perez, it is much more difficult to maintain a high contact rate (at least initially) upon reaching the Majors. The result for Perez is a .33 EYE. Until Perez can get his contact rate closer to 90% (where it was in the Majors) and hit for more power (just a .088 ISO), he will provide fantasy owners with very little.
Freddy Garcia SP (NYY) - Garcia continues to give the Yankees rotation an unexpected lift as he improved to 11-7 last night. Garcia allowed only 1 ER while striking out 4 and walking 1. Garcia is a nice story, but I do think his ERA is understated by about a run. Given Garcia's past, there's no reason to expect him to be able to maintain a 77.1 LOB% (career mark of 73.1) or a 5.9 HR/FB% (career mark of 10.9). Don't be surprised to see those numbers normalize over the last month of the season leading to some more runs allowed by Garcia as fewer runners are left stranded and more fly balls clear the fence.
