Jon Rauch (RP-TOR) Rauch allowed 2 hits and 1 run, but he earned his eleventh save of the season in last night's victory over the Orioles. Before the game, John Farrell said he would stick with Rauch as his closer and would only be skipped due to workload. Fran Francisco has not allowed a run in seven straight appearances, and if Rauch has one more shaky outing in the next couple of days, I can see Farrell making a change. He now has an ERA of 4.53 (xFIP of 4.42) with a below average strikeout of 6.04 K/9 for a closer. His velocity has dropped noticeably from 90.5 mph in 2010 to 89.5 mph this season. That drop has resulted in Rauch getting fewer swinging strikes, a drop from 8.2 percent last season to 6.5 percent (a career low). Things aren't looking well for Rauch owners, and they should have Francisco stored away safely.
BJ Upton (CF-TB) Upton went 3-for-3 with 2 walks, 2 RBI's and a triple in the Rays' 8-4 victory over the A's. Upton, who has 16 home runs and 23 stolen bases, improved his slash line to .233/.316/.408 for the season. Over his last 4 games, Upton has gotten hot and 7-for-16 with three walks and 2 extra-base hits. A .281 BABIP indicates that his average should be higher considering he has a .325 BABIP over his career. His 17.5 percent line drive rate is at its highest mark since 2008, which is a good indicator that his BABIP should increase over the coming weeks. Additionally, Upton has cut down on his strikeout rate from 26.7 to 24.4 percent, and his swinging strike percentage has dropped 2 percentage points. Overall, his batting average won't be higher than .245, but Upton's 20 plus home run power and 35 plus stolen base season continues to keep him in the upper echelon of fantasy outfielders.
Felipe Paulino (SP-KC) Paulino did not earn a decision in the Royals 4-3 loss to the Tigers, but he pitched his second straight quality start last night. He went 6.2 innings allowing 3 runs, 6 hits, 1 home run and 2 walks while striking out 7. He now has an ERA of 4.19 this season, while still producing a lower xFIP of 3.42. Paulino has an impressive strikeout rate of 8.59 K/9, but he has pitched better of late since lowering his walk rate to 2.56 BB/9. His .353 BABIP should drop, but he has produced a .343 BABIP for his career. He does a relatively decent job of keeping his home run rate down (9 percent HR/FB ratio), and continues to be a good matchup type for owners who could use strikeouts. It will be interesting to see where his BABIP sits after a few more starts.
Ubaldo Jimenez (SP-CLE) Jimenez, while not having a particularly good matchup, struggled in his first start since being traded to the Indians. He allowed 5 runs on 7 hits, 1 home run and 3 walks while striking out 7 and his ERA jumped to 4.64 for the season. Much has been made of Jimenez's velocity this season as his average fastball velocity has dropped from 96.1 to 93.4 mph, but he showed better velocity last night as he averaged 94.8 mph. His strikeout rate of 8.79 is a career high despite the drop off in velocity, and that suggests his overall movement is still there on his pitches. His ERA should drop and it has been mostly affected by a low strand rate of 66.4 percent. We probably won't see an ERA below 3.00 again, but I am convinced his best days are not behind him if he can avoid any unforeseen injuries.
Michael Young (1B/2B/3B/DH-TEX) Young hit cleanup in the Rangers order and played third base last night in the Rangers' 8-7 win over the Indians. He went 2-for-5 with a home run and RBI's. Young now has 10 home runs, 76 RBI's and a slash line of .336/.372/.500 for the season. His wRC+ of 136 is tied for a career high, and he is coming off a month of July where he had an OPS of 1.008. The move to DH should keep Young fresh as the Rangers head into the dog days of August in the Texas heat, and Young should be able to maintain a batting average higher than .325. He has cut down his strikeout rate to a career low 11.7 percent, and he has a line drive rate of 25.5 percent.
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