Jeremy Hellickson (SP-TB) Hellickson's record fell to 11-10 after earning the loss last night against the Rangers. He allowed 2 runs on 6 hits, 4 walks and 1 home run while striking out 4 in 6 innings of work. While he lowered his ERA to 3.01, Hellickson looks like a candidate for regression in 2012. His 4.53 xFIP is very high, and his 6.14 K/9 and 3.24 BB/9 are below average for a starter in 2011. He has greatly benefited from a .237 BABIP (allowing a 21.5 percent line drive rate) and strand rate of 81.4 percent. However, his 10.2 swinging strike rate indicates that he should be striking out more than 6.14 hitters over 9 innings and his 61.5 percent first pitch strike percentage suggests that he will improve his walk rate. Owners should not expect Hellickson to reproduce the same season if he does not improve his peripherals. He will not be able to replicate a .237 BABIP in 2012, much like Trevor Cahill.
Brett Lawrie (3B-TOR) Lawrie went 1-for-4 with a home run, 3 RBI and a strikeout in the Blue Jays' loss to the Orioles. The home run was Lawrie's sixth of the season, and he has an impressive line of .329/.380/.682 with 3 stolen bases in 91 plate appearances. I have been very impressed with Lawrie's all around game over the last few weeks. He has shown good speed, shown good range at third and demonstrated a good eye at the plate. His 6.6 percent walk rate should improve. His 19.5 percent chase rate would rank among the top three in baseball. His .369 BABIP is unsustainable, but his .353 ISO is staggering. His ability to hit for power and average along with his speed makes him a keeper league pick, and I would not be surprised to see him ranked in the top 10 among third baseman for next year.
Kevin Gregg (RP-BAL) Gregg blew his sixth save of the season last night against the Blue Jays. He allowed one run on three walks and one hit, and he saw his ERA increase to 4.41. His WHIP of 1.63 ranks last among major league closers, and it ranks seventh worst among qualified relievers. In each of the last three seasons, Gregg's strikeout rate has dropped while his walk rate has increased. He now has a 6.00 BB/9 this season, which is unacceptable for any reliever, especially a closer. I can't imagine the Orioles will stick with Gregg in the role next season. Mike Gonzalez has been pitching well of late with better velocity, and I would not be surprised to see Buck Showalter use him in the role for the rest of September with an eye towards 2012.
Scott Feldman (P-TEX) Feldman made his first start of the season last night against the Rays after making 7 appearances out of the bullpen. He threw 6 shutout innings in which he struck out 4, walked one and allowed 2 hits and picked up his first win of the season. While the start does not have much impact for this season since he was making a spot start, it does put him in the discussion for a spot in the 2012 rotation. His stuff last night was much better than last season. He averaged 91.5 mph on his fastball and 90.2 mph on his cutter, a major improvement from his 90.4 mph (fastball) and 89.2 mph (cutter) average velocities in 2010 and reminiscent of his 2010 season when he had a 91.6 mph (fastball) and 90.5 (cutter) average velocities. Even though it's a small sample, his 3.25 xFIP and 6.25 K/9 are career bests. Keep a look out for him in 2012.
Mike Trout (OF-LAA) Trout had his most impressive game of his major league career against the Mariners on Tuesday night. He went 2-for-5 with 2 home runs, 5 RBI, 3 runs scored, a strikeout and a walk. He now has 5 home runs, 1 stolen base and a slash line of .246/.306/.523 in 72 plate appearances this season. Trout has hit 4 home runs and hit .409 since being recalled by the Angels 2 weeks ago. He should be starting in the place of either Vernon Wells or Bobby Abreu, but he has spent most of the time on the bench since being recalled. He has earned some more starts, and I would be surprised to see him not make the major league team next season. However, the Angels are set to have every single one of their outfielders return next season. Unless the club can make a trade in the offseason, Trout will have competition for a starting spot in the lineup.
