Jair Jurrjens SP (ATL) - Jurrjens dominated the Orioles last night, tossing a complete game shutout. Jurrjens was more dominant than usual, striking out a season high of 8 batters while walking just 1. I know it seems like we've been saying it for some time, but Jurrjens remains a prime sell high candidate. His control (1.98 BB/9) has been in the 3.14-3.25 range for four straight years, so some regression there may come. In the luck categories, Jurrjens has been very fortunate. His BABIP of .257 is below his career mark of .257, LOB% of 84% is above his career mark of 74.9 (despite lowest K rate of past four years) and his HR/FB% of 4.6% is below his career mark of 6.8%. All this is not to say that Jurrjens is a bad pitcher, it's just to say that his current 1.98 ERA is not sustainable and when Jurrjens other stats regress it'll likely be in the mid to high 3's range.
Brandon Phillips 2B (CIN) - Phillips accounted for both of the Reds' runs last night, as he blasted two solo homers, his 7th and 8th of the season. It was obviously a nice game for Phillips, but I'm not so sure if it is a sign of things to come as Phillips (30) has seen his power numbers trend downwards the past few seasons. Here are his ISO's since 2007: .197/.181/.171/.155/.133. Here are his HR/FB%'s since 2007: 15.9/13.2/11.6/10/8.3. Phillips is certainly a useful fantasy commodity at 2B, but it appears as if his 20+ homer days are behind him.
Madison Bumgarner SP (SF) - Bumgarner put together a second straight dominant effort following that disastrous start against Minnesota. Last night, he struck out 9 and walked just 1 leading to just 1 ER. Bumgarner has pitched really well this season, despite what his 4-9 record might otherwise indicate. He has a solid 3.31 K/BB ratio, which is the same as last season, but Bumgarner is going with a bit more dominance now as his K/9 are up from 7.96 to 7.84. He has also maintained his 45.1 GB% from last season, posting a nearly identical 45.2 mark this year. Add all this up, and you've got a guy whose FIP is an amazing 2.54. Given Bumgarner's poor record and ERA-FIP discrepancy, I think there may be an opportunity to buy low here.
Mark Ellis 2B (COL) - Playing in Colorado for the first time as a Rockie, Ellis had a big game. He went 3-5 with a homer, a double and 3 RBI's. I'm sure we'll see a lot of people rush to pick up the MI from the waiver wire in hopes that the move from Oakland to Coors Field will boost Ellis' numbers. While that may be the case, it doesn't change Ellis' skills and doesn't mean he's worth a fantasy add. Ellis is hitting just .225 thanks to a putrid .25 EYE, and his LD% of 16.2 is the worst of his career. At age 34, Ellis' skills (which weren't that good to begin with) have deteriorated. I'd imagine there are a lot more higher upside plays out there than Ellis.
Brian Wilson RP (SF) - Wilson had an ugly 9th inning yesterday, blowing his second consecutive save opportunity. He got just 2 outs while giving up 4 hits, a walk and was lucky to escape with only 2 ER. So is there something wrong with Wilson? Well, yes. Wilson's strikeouts are way down and his walks way up. As a result, his impressive 3.58 K/BB ratio from a year ago is all the way down to 1.64. Wilson's flaws are somewhat masked by his impressive ability to keep the ball in the park thanks to a 54.1 GB% and a 3.2 HR/FB% that can't be considered lucky in light of the fact that he posted marks of 4.5 and 4.2 the past two seasons. Still, the drop in K's and rise in BB's is concerning. It's possible there is an injury here or that Wilson will continue to blow saves. I'd play this one safe and use Wilson's 24 saves as a bargaining chip and move him in a trade.
