NL Player Notes - July 24, 2011

Ubaldo Jimenez - For all the hoopla about Ubaldo Jimenez's struggles earlier this season, the big right hander's stats entering today's outing against the Diamondbacks are close to his 2010 totals. He's striking out about the same number of batters (8.31 K/9), walking a few less (3.46 BB/9) and allowing 0.77 HRs per game. While his 4.00 ERA is significantly worse than his 2.88 ERA in 2010, Jimenez's 3.51 FIP this season is much closer to last season's 3.10 mark. Jimenez was due for a bit of regression this season after he tallied just a .271 BABIP in 2010. He's not a top 15 fantasy SP like he was in 2011, but I'm confident Jimenez can be a top 25 guy during the second half of the season.

Charlie Morton - Charlie Morton started the season off with a 2.52 ERA through his first 11 starts and looked like one of the better pitchers in the game. However, since June 4th, Morton has not pitched 6 full innings and has witnessed his ERA jump by more than a run to 3.62. For the season, Morton has just a 5.29 strikeout rate and 3.53 walk rate and is allowing an unsustainably low 0.26 HRs per game. Morton has changed his pitching approach and now throws 19% more fast balls this season than 2010 and just about quit throwing his slider (2% in '11). The result has been an improved chase rate and batters making contact on a larger number of pitches outside the strike zone. It's likely many of those balls in play have been of the weakly hit variety which helps explain how Morton has improved his BABIP by 40 points this season. He'll face the Cardinals today and I remain bearish on his long-term prospects.

Anibal Sanchez - After a rough start to July when he allowed 12 ER in his first 2 starts, Anibal Sanchez has settled down the past 2 outings by yielding just 4 ER in 12 1/3 innings of work. Sanchez will take on the Mets this afternoon in search of his 7th win of the season. In 2011, Sanchez has upped his strikeout rate by 2 batters per game, tallying a 9.34 K/9 compared to a 7.25 mark in 2010. He's also managed to lower his walk rate and is yielding fewer than 1 HR per game. He had an excellent 2010 season by posting a 3.55 ERA and 3.32 FIP, but he's been even better in 2011 as evidenced by is 3.52 ERA and 3.19 FIP. Sanchez has definitely moved from a merely good fantasy SP to one of the better options available, thanks to the solid ERA and outstanding strikeout rate.

Todd Helton - Last season Todd Helton posted the lowest ISO mark of his career at .111. At 37-years old, he looked to be at the end of his amazing career. Needless to say, expectations for Helton's performance in 2011 were low for most fantasy owners. But instead of struggling again, Helton has resurrected his career and entered Saturday's game against the Diamondbacks with his highest ISO (.176) since 2005. Helton has also been able to push his BA to .322 after going 1-for-3 on Saturday and now owns a slick .322/.406/.500 line to go along with 11 HR and 51 RBI. The first baseman has cut his strikeout rate by 7% compared to 2010 and is recording the highest LD rate (26%) since 2003. While first base is deep, Helton can definitely be a starter in deeper leagues and is an excellent reserve/utility play in most league formats.

Neil Walker - The Pirates' second baseman has been a bit of a disappointment to fantasy owners this season. After recording an .811 OPS in 2010, Walker owns just a .741 mark this season after going 1-for-4 on Saturday against the Cardinals. He's maintained a solid 22% LD% but is hitting 7% more grounders and 8% fewer fly balls. That change has helped to cause Walker's ISO to fall from .167 last season to .134 in 2011. Most concerning to me is that Walker's chase rate has jumped from 28% to 33% and he's making 8% more contact on pitches outside the strike zone. Basically, Walker's become impatient and its affected the contact quality of his balls in play. He's still just 25 so there's plenty of time for Walker to improve his approach. But, for now, I'd look for other options at second base.

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