Derek Jeter SS (NYY) - Even a Yankee hater such as myself can't help but getting giddy at the awesomeness of baseball, which was on fully display yesterday as Derek Jeter's 3,000th hit was a homerun on a day in which he went 5-5 at the plate. However, the fantasy baseball side of us must remain business like and stoic. In doing so, Jeter owners must recognize this as a sell high moment. Move him for an Alexei Ramirez and you have made your team better. While it was nice to see Jeter turn back the clock for the day, you must realize that he won't be able to do it too many more times over the season's second half. Jeter is a GB machine (65.3%), and unfortunately the extra grounders are coming at the expense of line drives as Jeter's LD% of 11.7% is awful. He had set his previous career low in LD% last season at 16.1%. The balls Jeter does put in the air are mostly harmless - see 3.5 HR/FB%.
BJ Upton OF (TB) - Upton has remained a tremendous fantasy asset despite his low BA (.234); yesterday he homered (15th of season) and stole a base (21st of season). Plus, there's reason to believe that the batting average may be on the rise soon. Upton's current BABIP of .277 is the worst of his career and well below his career mark of .327. However, given Upton's ISO of .182 (26 points higher than career), EYE of .45 (identical with career mark) and 18.7 LD% (1.1 percentage points above career mark), we should certainly expect that BABIP to rise as the season goes along.
Scott Baker SP (MIN) - Last week I recommended starting Baker at home against a weak NL offense. This week, I'm recommending sitting him in leagues with limited starts or where people are watching their ratios. Baker moves from one of the hardest parks to hit homers in the AL (Target Field) to one of the easiest (US Cellular). And while the White Sox offense hasn't exactly been en fuego, they have plenty of guys who can go yard. Baker has a history of giving up the long ball (1.16 career HR/9), and he is due for some slight regression as all of "luck" factors have been fortunate for him. His BABIP is 11 points below average, LOB% is 7.7 percentage points above average and HR/FB% .6 percentage points below his career average (but has been elevated in past two years).
Jonathan Papelbon RP (BOS) - Papelbon worked a perfect inning last night, striking out one, but he was not credited with a save since Boston had a 4 run lead. Papelbon's high ERA makes him a buy low candidate in my book, as he has actually pitched like the dominant closer he was prior to last season. Despite having a 4.15 ERA, Papelbon's FIP is really, really exceptional at 2.18. His K/9 are up to 12.46, but the increased dominance has not come at the expense of any lost control (1.82 BB/9). As a result, Papelbon is actually posting the second best K/BB ratio of his career: 6/86. Expect the ERA to lower as the saves pile up.
John Lackey SP (BOS) - Lackey pitched the best game of his season last night, holding the Orioles scoreless for 6.2 innings while striking out 7 and walking just 1. I've made it known before that I'm not a Lackey supporter, and this outing doesn't change anything for me. He's not dominant (5.60 K/9, trending downward since 2005), doesn't have great control (3.36 BB/9, trending upward since 2007) and has the lowest GB% (37.5%) of his career.
