BJ Upton OF (TB) - With lots of speculation that Upton may be traded, there's a good chance that such a move would be beneficial to his fantasy value. For starters, only a contender would likely trade for Upton so he will most likely not be traded to any awful offenses. More importantly, however, a change in Upton's home venue may help his power numbers. According to ESPN park factors, Tropicana Field is the 20th hardest place to hit a homerun. A one year sample size isn't very good, but over the past 5 seasons Tropicana field has ranked in the bottom half of the league in terms of home runs allowed in each of those seasons with an average in the bottom third. Upton is in his peak power years (just shy of turning 28) and currently enjoying a 14.3 HR/FB% that is the second best of his career. However, his HR/FB% on the road is 18% versus just 10.9% at home, so a trade may even bolster Upton's current power spike.
Blake Beavan SP (SEA) - If you are searching the waiver wire for a pitcher, you might come across Beavan and his 3.04 ERA. Don't be drawn in, as there is very little upside here. Beavan only has a K/9 of 4.05, and given his minor league track record that seems about right. He does offer superb control (1.35 BB/9), which once again meshes with what he has done in the minors. Despite the good control, I'm generally not a fan of low K guys (low ceiling, high risk) unless he has an extremely favorable GB rate. While in Beavan's case, not only does he not have a favorable GB rate, his first four starts have portrayed him to be very FB risky (just a 35.6 GB%). So why is the ERA low then? Well, all of the "luck" categories have been very beneficial to Beavan. He has a BABIP of .241, LOB% of 81.4% and HR/FB% of 8.3%. None of these numbers, with the HR/FB% a possible exception, are sustainable in my opinion. This is a mid-4 ERA's pitcher who won't generate strikeouts nor many wins given the offense behind him. In other words, he projects to offer very little fantasy value.
Joel Pineiro SP (LAA) - Pineiro took the loss last night. The good news was he didn't walk a batter. Unfortunately, he didn't strike one out either. Pineiro has been a big disappointment in my eyes, as he struck me as a relatively safe fantasy option after two consecutive season with sub 4 ERA's/FIP's/xFIP's. Pineiro's problem missing bats this season has just been too dramatic for him to overcome, though. He is striking out just 3.86 batters per 9. Meanwhile his control is trending in the wrong direction (BB/9 the last three seasons - 1.14/2.01/2.54) as is his GB rate (60.5%/54.9%/48.4%). It's unlikely in my eyes that we see much of a turnaround for Pineiro, and frankly given his lack of dominance the ceiling is so low that the expected return if Pineiro does figure it out is not enough to balance out the risk involved in playing him.
Danny Valencia 3B (MIN) - Valencia popped his 12th homer of the season last night, and he is showing slightly more pop in his bat this year than he did last season: ISO increased from .137 to .154 and HR/FB% from 7.1% to 11.4%. However, Valencia has gone overlooked in a lot of leagues due to the dreadful batting average: .234. Valencia's EYE is not good, but not awful either (.40), and his LD% is a respectable 19.3%. As a result, I'd expect his BABIP to settle in somewhere between his .253 mark this season and his .345 mark last season. In fact, let's just say Valencia has a BABIP rest of season that matches his career mark (.296); this makes Valencia more of a .260-.270 hitter if the improved pop remains and boosts his fantasy stats across the board.
Rich Harden SP (OAK) - Harden got the victory over the Yankees last night, and he has pitched pretty well over 4 starts this season. He is striking out almost a batter an inning (8.87/9), which is much improved over the 7.34 mark he posted in his disastrous 2010 season with the Rangers. Harden's ERA of 4.63 leaves much to be desired, but in a small sample size that number is skewed by a high HR total. Now, Harden will give up homers because he is FB risky, but his current 16.7 HR/FB% is more than 1.5 times his normal rate of 10%, which is right around the league average. As a result, Harden's xFIP of 3.54 is a much better indicator of where we can expect him to be at from here on out. There's definitely risk with Harden, but a guy with his K rate (who has shown respectable control thus far) is certainly valuable. I'd go as far as to say that when healthy Harden is near a must start at home, where his FB riskiness is lowered to a degree pitching in the giant Oakland ballpark.
