Brian Duensing - Brian Duensing is learning a lesson about how luck plays into pitching stats such as wins and ERA. In 2010, Duensing posted a sparkling 2.62 ERA and went 10-3 for the Twins in 130 innings. However, he enjoyed an 82% strand rate, .272 BABIP and 3.85 FIP which indicated that his sub-3.00 ERA wasn't sustainable. Fast forward to this season and Duensing's ERA has spiked to 5.37 and he's just 2-5 through 58 innings. However, Duensing's strand rate has fallen to just 65% while his BABIP is up to .328. Interestingly, Duensing's 3.96 FIP is much more respectable than his ERA and right in line with his FIP from 2010. In 2011, he's striking out and walking more batters while allowing a few more HRs and inducing fewer grounders but none of these peripheral stats have changed very significantly compared to last season. Duensing starts against the Royals today and could be a buy-low candidate in 12/14 team leagues.
Jo-Jo Reyes - Much was made of Jo-Jo Reyes going 28 straight starts without a win which overlooked the fact that, somehow, Jo-Jo Reyes is actually pitching OK this season. He starts against the Orioles today in search of his second straight win after dominating the Indians with a complete game on Tuesday. In 60 innings this season, Reyes is striking out 6.08 batters per game, walking just 2.82 and allowing only 0.68 HRs per game. Those aren't bad numbers at all, especially when accompanied by Reyes' 4.12 FIP. Despite the better-than-expected peripheral stats, Reyes is playing with fire in that he is surviving with a 46% fly ball rate but owns just a 6.5% HR/FB rate. That's definitely not sustainable so expect to see more HRs hit off Reyes in his upcoming starts. On the flip side, Reyes is also dealing with a .335 BABIP which should drop at some point as well. I'm not saying Reyes is worth owning, but if you need an extra start today, you could probably do worse than Jo-Jo versus Baltimore.
Adam Dunn - It might be time to take the Big Donkey out back and put him down because right now Adam Dunn is lost at the plate. He finished Saturday's game against Detroit 0-for-4 with 3 strikeouts. Count me as one of the many analysts who figured Dunn playing 81 games at U.S. Cellular Field would be good for at least 40 bombs in 2011. Instead, it's June 5th and Dunn has just 5 HRs to go along with a .317 SLG% and .142 ISO while batting all of .178. If there's any good news, it's that Dunn has pushed his walk rate back into the high teens, after falling to just 12% last season. However, as the walk rate has improved, Dunn's strikeout rate has gotten worse. He simply will not break out of this prolonged slump until he stops striking out at a 42% clip. I am as confused as you by Dunn's first two months this season. But for those who own the former Red and National, I encourage you to continue to be patient. Dunn has an extensive sample size of being one of the best and most consistent power hitters in the game. He has hit between 38 and 46 HRs in 7 straight seasons. He owns a career .515 SLG% and .267 ISO. And at 31-years old, he hasn't suddenly become Casey Kotchman. I would still target Dunn as a buy-low candidate right now, although I wouldn't give us quite as much as I would have at the beginning of May.
Josh Beckett - Josh Beckett tallied his 9th quality start of 2011 by holding the Athletics to 3 ER in 6 innings on Saturday in Fenway. It was a little bit of a disappointing start for Beckett's fantasy owners as the big right hander allowed 0 ER, 2 singles and 1 walk through 5 innings before yielding a 2-run hit to Josh Willingham in the 6th. In the 7th Beckett allowed the first 3 batters to reach and got yanked. He was fortunate that only 1 of those base runners scored thanks to solid relief pitching. For the season, Beckett now owns a 2.01 ERA, .189 BAA and 1.03 WHIP to go along with 67 strikeouts in 76 innings. A big part of Beckett's success is that he's allowed just 0.39 HRs per game to go along with a 4.2% HR/FB rate. Considering Beckett's career HR/9 and HR/FB rates are 0.98 and 10%, respectively, it's safe to assume he'll be giving up some more long balls in the foreseeable future. Beckett is also benefiting from a .240 BABIP and 85% strand rate so expect him to regress soon. Based on the numbers, I expect Beckett to post an ERA in the 3.20-3.50 range for the remainder of the season.
C.J. Wilson - I remember owning C.J. Wilson in 2008 when he was a train wreck waiting to happen every time he tried to save a game. He finished that season with 24 saves in 28 chances but owned a 6.02 ERA while doing his best Jose Jimenez impression. With that season in mind, it's pretty amazing how good Wilson has become as a starter these past 2 seasons. The Rangers' lefty ace faces the Tribe today in search of his 6th win of the season and currently owns a very solid 3.49 FIP and 3.32 ERA to go along with an improved strikeout rate of 8.30 (he struck out 7.50 batters per game in 2010). Wilson has also lowered his walk rate by a batter per game, from 4.10 in '10 to just 3.10 this season. I'm also encouraged by Wilson's improved chase rate which has jumped by 6% over last season. His ground ball rate is down a little and his HR rate is slightly up but overall Wilson is a consistent No. 2 SP in 12+ team leagues.
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