Josh Tomlin - When Josh Tomlin owned a sub-3.00 ERA entering June, it was pretty clear he wasn't going to be able to maintain that level of success all season. And, predictably, Tomlin has posted a 6.60 ERA this month, allowing 22 ER in 30 innings. Today, Tomlin enters his start against the Diamondbacks with a 3.95 ERA and 4.02 FIP, meaning his regression has really leveled out. Tomlin's strikeout rate remains low, at just 5.08, but he also continues to do an excellent job limiting walks (1.13 BB/9). Where Tomlin has gotten into trouble is with the long ball. He's yielded 13 HRs in 95 innings, although most of those have been solo shots. Usually pitch-to-contact pitchers rely on piling up a bunch of grounders but Tomlin only owns a 38% GB rate as he's clearly a fly ball pitcher. That's a tricky combination, and it makes me even more nervous about Tomlin's ability to maintain an FIP around 4.00 moving forward. For those in leagues that use wins as a category, Tomlin's definitely valuable but be careful about who you start him against. If I own Tomlin, I'm sitting him on the road against Arizona today.
Felipe Paulino - Felipe Paulino intrigued me last season after tossing 91 innings for the Astros and tallying a 8.15 strikeout rate and 3.44 FIP despite going 1-9 and having a 5.11 ERA. Paulino was bitten by a really low strand rate (58%) and really high .331 BABIP. He also didn't help himself by recording a walk rate which hovered around 4.50 batters per game. I figured when Paulino's fortune evened out, he'd have a chance to be a back end of the rotation starter in deep leagues in 2011. Through 49 innings this season, Paulino has maintained a solid 7.79 strikeout rate and significantly lowered his walk rate to just 2.90 while allowing fewer than 1 home run per 9 innings. He's even increased his GB rate by 7% to 49% and his FIP is once again under 4.00, sitting at a cool 3.79. However, once again a .329 BABIP and 67% strand rate are hurting Paulino's ERA (4.35) and he's 0-5 for the season. The good news is that he is likely very undervalued so keep an eye on his next couple starts to see if his peripheral stats remain solid. I'd even venture to say Paulino is worth a spot start today against the Padres at Petco.
Nick Markakis - Left for dead by many fantasy baseball managers (and myself), Nick Markakis is starting to finally show some signs of life in June. The Orioles were off Monday, so heading into tonight's game against the Cardinals, the outfielder is on a 14-game hitting streak and is batting .337 in June. He's even stolen 2 bases in the past 3 games. Markakis' power numbers (.084 ISO, .360 SLG%) are still very alarming and in decline for the 4th straight season, so let's not kid ourselves and think he's suddenly become a legit starting OF in 10 or 12 team leagues. That said, it's good to see at least something from Markakis who was truly dreadful for the first 2 months of the season. With a .277 BA, it's reasonable to expect Markakis to continue to improve since he has finished the past 3 seasons with BAs right around the .300 mark. But until I start seeing more HRs and extra base hits (he only has 14 for the season), I'm tempering my excitement after just 1 good month.
Ben Zobrist - The Rays' second baseman/OF finished Monday's game against the Reds going 2-for-4 with a pair of doubles. For the season, Zobrist is hitting .271 with 9 HRs, 40 RBI and 7 steals. After posting a .246 ISO and .543 SLG% in 2009, Zobrist's power disappeared last season as he owned an alarmingly low .115 ISO to go along with a .353 SLG%. Whatever was sapping Zobrist's power from last season is gone in 2011 as the versatile utility man once again owns a .200+ ISO and .481 SLG%. By now, it's clear Zobrist is more of a 15-20 HR player who can swipe around 20 bases and won't kill your fantasy team's BA or OBP. That's a valuable commodity in any league format and especially at a thin position like second base.
Jeff Francoeur - After posting an outstanding .926 OPS in March/April, Jeff Francoeur has - you won't believe this - regressed quite a bit in May (.675 OPS) and June (.641). Frenchy's power numbers have also fallen as he hit 5 HRs in March/April, 4 in May and just 1 this month. On Monday, Francoeur went 1-for-4 against the Padres and his overall season line sits at .264/.310/.439. Francoeur's .178 ISO is a nice bump over past seasons but, otherwise, his numbers are similar to his 2010 totals. It'd be a great story if Francoeur could ever meet his potential but at this point, it appears he's going to be an OF who posts .700-ish OPS marks to go along with a few HRs. That makes him a fringe fantasy player in most leagues, at best.
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