Ike Davis (1B - Mets) - It was the best of time, it was the worst of times. After reaching an average of .352 as of April 29th, Davis has gone into a slump, dropping to .312 by going just 2-for-18 this week with 7 K's. Davis wasn't expected to hit in the .350's and, frankly, he's not expected to maintain this level either. A little statistical correction to start the month of May. The good news is that Davis' power and EYE are solid, with an AB/HR of 18.2 and an EYE of 0.54 (which has recently dropped with this week's high K-rate). Still riding the up-arrow on Ike Davis and I would expect his fantasy value to remain fairly consistent for 2011.
Kelly Johnson (2B - Diamondbacks) - Johnson owners got a brief sign of something positive in last night's game. He hit his 4th HR of the year and broke a 4-game hitless streak. Still, Johnson's first 5 weeks have been anything but rewarding for fantasy owners. Johnson is hitting a mere .176 for the season with a .264 OBP, 4 SB, and 34 K's. That's an EYE of .32, meaning he strikes out at least once a game (once for every 3.2 plate appearances). This is quite the drop-off from last year's .284/.370/.496 with the Braves that led to an EYE of 0.53. Because 2B is so weak (and there isn't nearly as much upside on the waiver wires at that position), I'm sticking with Johnson through May.
Javier Vazquez (SP - Marlins) - Javier Vazquez has become pretty predictable at this point. With only 1 quality start in 7 outings this year, Vazquez is posting a 6.39 ERA and 1.81 WHIP with a 2-2 record. He has given up exactly 4 ER in 5 of his 7 starts and 3 ER in the other two. He already has 21 walks through 31 innings and the K-rate has dropped from last year's rate of 6.9 to this year's rate of 4.7 (compared to an overall career rate of 8.0). Without the K's, Vazquez offers little to fantasy owners (other than two starts next week). His fastball velocity has been steadily decreasing over the last three years, from 91.2 in 2009 (which was his last good K year) to 89.0 in 2010 and averaging about 88.1 this year.
Albert Pujols (1B - Cardinals) - Pujols struggles continue into the month of May, hitting just .143 this month without an extra base hit. His last XBH came on April 23rd, which was also his last HR. He only has 8 XBH for the season, 7 of which are HR's which helps bump the SLG over .400 for now. With the overall #1 consensus pick, the panic button is well out of reach for fantasy owners, but it is certainly disappointing. The good news is he is still drawing walks (14 BB vs. 13 K's) and his AB/HR is still solid at 17.1. It certainly speaks volumes of the player's talent when he posts a sub-20.0 AB/HR rate and an EYE greater than 1.0 and he is still having a slow start. If he doesn't break out of this by the end of the month, then we have something to talk about. For now, all we can do is be patient and wait for the production to come around.
Carlos Pena (1B - Cubs) - Fantasy owners who have practiced the patience principle have been rewarded the last two days from Carlos Pena. He has two HR in as many games, breaking his homerless streak to start the season. Pena's ownership has dropped tremendously over the last few weeks and rightfully so. Without HR's and a sub-.200 average, there was little value to extract from him, especially at the first base position. But we all knew that Pena's power would emerge at some point and it would come in bunches. You also know he's good for at least 25 HR this year, as 5 of his last 6 seasons have yielded at least 27 or more. Since 2004, he has averaged a HR for every 14.3 AB and has led the league in AB/HR in 2 of the last 4 seasons with a 12.1 in 2009 and 10.7 in 2007.
Follow us on Twitter all year: @Fantistics and @jribando
