Happy Mother's Day! Now onto the updates...
Bartolo Colon - The Yankees got a whiff of Colon Saturday night and it didn't smell too good. The big right hander's Cinderella season took a step backwards as the Rangers tagged Colon for 5 ER on 9 hits in 4 1/3 innings. Colon entered last night's start with some ridiculous numbers through 33 innings - 9.00 strikeout rate, 48% groundball rate and 1.64 walk rate. He had struggled with keeping the ball in the yard and that tendency was Colon's demise as he allowed 2 HRs against Texas. Colon hasn't been too creative on the mound this season, throwing pretty much all fastballs (85% of his pitches) and a few sliders and change-ups. The biggest difference has been Colon inducing so many more grounders. He owns a 1.47 GB/FB mark which is significantly higher than his career rate of 1.05. It's hard to imagine Colon can maintain that rate and I don't believe he's going to have much fantasy value moving forward.
Fausto Carmona - Fausto Carmona is owned in just 13% of ESPN leagues, which I can understand because he doesn't strike out a ton of batters and his current 4.43 ERA ain't exactly pretty. But this is a case where a small sample size (44 innings) is hurting a pitcher who has actually been quite good in 2011. Carmona has made 7 starts this season and given up 22 ER. In 2 of the starts, he yielded 16 ER while allowing just 6 ER during the other 5 outings. He's also pitched into the 7th inning or beyond in 5 of the 7 starts. My point? Carmona is definitely worth owning in 12/14 team AL-only and mixed leagues because he's been excellent most of the time. Yes, there's risk that every once in awhile he may throw a real dud to mess up your team's ERA for the week but if you start him against the right lineups, Carmona makes a solid value play. With a 1.19 WHIP, 5 quality starts and a 3.79 FIP, Carmona is worth a flier. He starts against the Angels later today.
Dan Haren - Dan Haren has been a consistently excellent pitcher for a long time so it's scary to think that he might actually be getting better. Entering today's game against the Indians, Haren owns some ridiculous numbers: 2.12 FIP, 1.76 ERA, 0.35 HR rate and 6.57 K/BB to go along with a 4-2 record. Compared to previous seasons, Haren has adjusted the way he approaches hitters. He's throwing his cutter 37% of the time (10% increase from 2010) while tossing a fastball just 34% (9% decrease from 2010). So far, 2011 marks the 3rd straight season Haren has increased the usage of his cutter, which he only started throwing in 2009 when he was with Arizona. Interestingly, this is also the 7th straight season Haren has thrown fewer fastballs, down from 63% in 2004 to 42% last year and now 34% in 2011. Early in the season, hitters have not had an opportunity to adjust to Haren's new approach and he's consequently done a great job keeping the opposition off balance. As hitters get to see Haren a second time (as the Tribe will today), they will make adjustments and his overall numbers will regress a bit. That said, Haren is a good bet to finish in the top 3 for the AL Cy Young this season and should be one of the top 5 or 6 SPs throughout 2011.
David Murphy - David Murphy entered last night's game against the Yankees with a disappointing .098 ISO. So it was good to see Murphy connect for his 3rd HR of the season and finish the game 2-for-4. Filling in for the injured Josh Hamilton, Murphy hasn't exactly lit the world on fire as he's batting just .271/.333/.396 with 11 RBI. Part of the problem is that Murphy's groundball mark is through the roof at 58%. That explains why Murphy only has 6 extra base hits on the season. He's also dealing with .278 BABIP which is significantly lower than his career .314 mark. The outfielder's career ISO and SLG% are .173 and .454, so expect to see an improvement in his 2011 number's soon, assuming he starts hitting the ball in the air more often. If he does rebound, Murphy could be an intriguing fourth OF in deep leagues.
Brett Gardner - Lil' Brett Gardner has been a big disappointment in 2011, batting just .217 entering Saturday's game against the Rangers. He's also been caught stealing in 4 of 8 attempts, which is a much lower percentage than his 47/56 mark last season. In the preseason, I predicted Gardner would score 100 runs and steal 50 bases in 2011 and he's making me eat some crow right now. However, I do think there's hope that Gardner can turn things around soon. His BABIP has dropped from .340 in 2010 to .263 this season which has hurt his BA and OBP numbers. Assuming that BABIP bounces back to the .300 mark or above, you'll see Gardner on base more often. That should mean more steals. I'm not too concerned about the caught stealing percentage at this point because we're just talking about 8 attempts. Gardner has also posted a .381 SLG% which is higher than his mark from last year and he's got a .167 ISO and 3 HRs after owning just a .103 ISO and hitting 5 HRs all of last season. Bottom line: Gardner is a good buy-low candidate right now.
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