AL Player Notes - May 31, 2011

Chone Figgins - Perhaps the most damning indictment of Chone Figgins steep and drastic decline as a hitter is that the Mariners dropped him in the lineup on Monday from second to eighth and moved Brendan Ryan (!) up to the 2-hole - and the only question I asked myself was, "What took them so long?" Indeed, Figgins appears to be broken, entering Monday's game batting .193 with a .496 OPS in 192 ABs. The silver lining has always been that Figgins will at least steal you some bases and he's even failing at that task by swiping just 7 bags in 12 tries. Part of Figgins' problem is his line drive rate has dropped from 23% in 2009 to just 17% this season, meaning that his .213 BABIP is not all bad luck. The reality is Figgins needs a line drive rate in the mid-20% range to be successful. When that rate drops, the third baseman simply cannot make up for those lost hits with more grounders or fly balls. Figgins is also showing little patience this season, owning a 25% chase rate while his walk rate has fallen from a career mark of 10% to just 5%. He finished Monday's game 0-for-3 with 2 strikeouts and can be dropped in most league formats at this point as it's very unlikely he rebounds in the coming months.

Trevor Cahill - It's been well documented in the Fantistics player updates during the past year or so that Trevor Cahill's 2.97 ERA in 2010 was significantly lower than his 4.19 FIP. Despite a 5.40 strikeout rate and thanks to a .236 BABIP, 77% strand rate and 56% ground rate, Cahill put together an outstanding 2010 season. This year, many, including myself, expected Cahill to regress quite a bit. However, through his first 78 innings, Cahill continues to pitch well by showing an improved strikeout rate (7.07) and increased ground ball rate (57%) which has helped him post a 2.02 ERA entering yesterday's start against the Yankees. That said, Cahill's peripheral stats indicate he continues to enjoy a good deal of fortune as his FIP is 1.51 runs above his ERA. We saw a little bit of regression as Cahill was tagged for 4 ER in 6 2/3 innings on Monday against the Yankees. Still, it's very encouraging that Cahill's striking out more batters this season and it seems reasonable to expect an ERA in the 3.20-range for the remainder of the season.

Erik Bedard - In his last 5 starts, Erik Bedard has been outstanding, allowing just 4 ER in 33 innings while striking out 28 and walking only 7. He appears to be regaining the form that enabled him to post sub-4.00 FIPs from 2005 to 2007 with Baltimore. For the season, Bedard owns a 7.84 strikeout rate, 3.16 walk rate and excellent 46% ground ball rate. He's been hurt by the HR, yielding 1.22 HRs per game, but otherwise is a solid No. 3 or No. 4 fantasy starter in deep 12/14 team leagues. Part of Bedard's success is due to the southpaw throwing 8% fewer fastballs compared to his career rate and 4% more change-ups. By mixing up his pitch selection, Bedard has kept hitters off balance and maintained success despite a small dip in his strikeout numbers. He faces his former team today and then draws the Rays on Sunday, making him a strong 2-start pitcher this week.

Eric Hosmer - Eric Hosmer was plenty hyped a few weeks ago when he got called up to the majors and so far, he's pretty much lived up to the expectations. On Monday, Hosmer belted his 5th HR of the season, a 2-run shot off Ervin Santana, and finished the game 2-for-5 with 4 RBI. In 95 ABs this season, Hosmer owns a .274/.314/.505 line with 15 RBI. He entered yesterday's game with a .200 ISO and 13.3% HR/FB rate so the power is already major league ready. Hosmer has struggled with his BA a bit and is only walking in 6% of his ABs but, overall, the kid is more than holding his own. I'd add Hosmer in most league formats as he's at least a backup first baseman with pop. In keeper leagues, Hosmer is pure gold and should be owned everywhere.

Victor Martinez - Victor Martinez hit his 5th HR of the season Monday against the Twins, finishing the game 1-for-4 with 2 RBI. For the season Martinez is batting a solid .298 to go along with 5 HRs, 27 RBI and a .469 SLG%. At 32, Martinez continues to provide consistent production in the middle of the Tigers lineup, owning a .168 ISO this season after posting .177 and .191 marks the past two seasons. Martinez has also been making better contact this season as evidenced by his 23% line drive rate which represents a 6% improvement over his 2010 season mark. Additionally, Martinez has been more patient and owns a 0.88 BB/K rate, his highest mark since 2006 when he played for the Indians. For all these reasons, you should expect more of the same production from Martinez moving forward.

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