Michael Brantley OF (CLE) - Michael Brantley is enjoying a breakout season in large part due to his increase in EYE (from .58 to 1.13). His current EYE is being driven slightly by a reduction in strikeouts but primarily because of a large increase in his walk rate (from 6.8% to 11.1%). A glance at Brantley's minor league numbers and a look at some of his swing data confirm the legitimacy and sustainability of Brantley's double digit walk rate. Sure, he only walked 6.8% of the time last season, but in 6 minor league stops (spanning from 2006-10) Brantley never posted a walk rate below 10.4%. Also, Brantley has an absurdly low swinging strike percentage (2.6%, 2.7% last season) and makes contact on 92.3% of the pitches he swings at. That's remarkable, especially considering the league average is 80.9%. In light of that information, one might even anticipate an increase in Brantley's current contact rate, which is already a very good 88.9%. This is a legitimate .300 hitter who can go 10/30 in homers/steals and should score a good amount of runs in a surprisingly effective Cleveland lineup. His high on base percentage makes him a particularly safe bet in runs scored and stolen bases because he'll allow himself plenty of opportunities. I'd target Brantley in a trade as his lack of name recognition will probably allow him to be had for less than his current and future value would otherwise indicate.
Alexi Ogando SP (TEX) - Ogando is expected to pitch at KC today, and the matchup makes him a must start in all formats. Be careful if you attempt to sell high on Ogando. Yes, his 95.4 LOB% and .193 scream sell high as both numbers are far from sustainable. However, owners should focus more on how Ogando has pitched lately. After striking out just 9 total batters in his first 3 starts (4.19 K/9), Ogando has struck out 23 batters in his last 4 starts (8.51 K/9) and hasn't struck out less than 5 in any of those games. On top of this, Ogando has been able to pitch at least 6 innings in every start. So, yes, Ogando is going to experience some regression, but an improvement in his peripherals will curb the negative impact it is going to have on his numbers. This is a case where just looking at a player's FIP (4.21 in Ogando's case) will cause an owner an error in judgment because that number does not weigh Ogando's more recent starts more heavily, when those K/9 numbers are more indicative of how he is likely to pitch for the rest of the season.
Edwin Encarnacion 3B (TOR) - I previously told owners to be patient with Encarnacion and that the power will come. Well, it hasn't as he is yet to tally a HR. Still, I stand by my sentiments that the homers will start coming in bunches for Encarnacion. He is just 28 YO and has a career HR/FB% of 11.6%; last season he posted a 15.1 HR/FB%. Encarnacion is still making good contact and getting loft on his swing as his LD% is 20.4% (an improvement from last season), and his FB% is right in line with where it was last year at 49.1%. Don't forget this guy hit 21 homers in just 96 games last year. The EYE (.25) is a slight concern but less so due to good LD/FB numbers and an increased contact rate. Long term playing time is also a concern with Brett Lawrie likely being called up at some point, but Encarnacion can play third, first or DH. Plus, he has been plugged in the cleanup role with Adam Lind out, and hitting behind Jose Bautista can't be described as a bad thing.
Danny Duffy SP (KC) - Duffy is getting called up to make his Major League debut today. He's a must add in deep mixed leagues and AL leagues and someone to watch out for in standard leagues. Throughout his minor league career, Duffy has been a strikeout machine. At 4 different levels last season Duffy struck out 10 batters per 9 and followed it up with good command as evidenced by his 5.06 K/BB ratio. Throughout his minor league career Duffy has struck out 10.5 batters per 9. I'm somewhat bullish on Duffy because when he jumped to AA last season, he posted the best walk rate of his career at 2.04. This year he debuted at AAA and in 7 starts posted a 10.75 K/9 and 2.50 BB/9, both of which are better than his minor league averages. The fact that Duffy improved as he moved up the ladder gives me confidence his game can translate quickly to the Major League level.
Casey Kotchmann 1B (TB) - Don't be sucked into Kotchmann's hot start with the Rays. Kotchmann is hitting .352, but it's a pretty empty .352 when you consider his .080 ISO. Kotchmann has excellent plate discipline and always has, so it's not surprising to see him go on a hot streak. Just remember the hot streak is mainly comprised of singles, so it doesn't bring too much value with it and that Kotchmann is a career .262 hitter. Kotchmann's downfall is that he'll never hit for power. His career 8.9 HR/FB% indicates that Kotchmann doesn't have much raw power, but his biggest problem is his inability to get the ball off of the ground. Kotchmann currently is hitting ground balls a whopping 57.5% of the time - something you'd see out of a speed only guy. His FB% is a joke at 17.5%. Once Kotchmann's current singles average of .347 reverts towards his previous three year average of .214, you'll want no part of him.
