Vin Mazzaro - I don't know much about Vin Mazzaro, but I'm pretty certain Monday was the worst pitching performance of his career, starting from tee-ball through the majors. Summoned into duty after Kyle Davies was injured in the first inning and Nick Adcock had tossed 1 2/3 innings of relief, Mazzaro allowed 14 ER - yes, 14 ER - in just 2 1/3 innings against the Indians. He yielded 11 base hits, 3 walks and managed 2 strikeouts as his ERA rose from 4.50 to 22.74 and he now owns a 3.79 WHIP in 6 1/3 innings this season. Mazzaro was slated to start today but he obviously won't be on the hill following yesterday's disaster. By allowing 14 ER in one game, Mazzaro became the first pitcher since Mike Oquist in 1998, and third pitcher since 1947, to reach such a feat. Congratulations, Vin Mazzaro!
Tyler Chatwood - The Angels' rookie toes the rubber against Oakland today in search of his third win in 2011. Through 41 2/3 innings this season, Chatwood owns a 3.89 strikeout rate, 5.40 walk rate and a 5.58 FIP. Looking at those numbers, it's easy to understand why the young right hander shouldn't be owned in 1-year leagues. He's kept his ERA at 3.67 thanks to an incredibly high 86% strand rate and .270 BABIP. Give Chatwood some credit, he's posting a solid 46% ground ball rate and he'll need to maintain or improve upon that number if he hopes to keep his ERA in the 4.00-range moving forward. Chatwood is struggling to fool batters as his chase rate is just 19% and hitters make contact on 92% of pitches in the strike zone, which is 5% above the league average. For those with Chatwood in keeper leagues, the hope is that he takes his lumps this season and begins to improve his strikeout rate so that he's worth a roster spot next season. Until then, he's not going to contribute much in any league format.
James Shields - James Shields looks to continue his outstanding start to the season today against the Yankees. Shields enters today's start with a 2.08 ERA, 3.07 FIP and a 7.57 strikeout rate. He's been throwing his curveball more often (+6% compared to 2010) which has contributed to batters making contact on a higher percentage of pitches outside the strike zone. Shields has also lowered his walk rate from 2.26 in 2010 to just 1.93 this season and he's also inducing more grounders (46%). He's benefiting from a .245 BABIP (compared to a .304 career mark) and his strand rate is a ridiculously high 87%. Both those indicators are going to even out and Shields' ERA will rise. With that regression in mind, I expect Shields to own a 3.80-4.00 ERA moving forward.
Francisco Liriano - Here's all you need to know about Francisco Liriano this season. He's thrown a no-hitter and still owns a 7.07 ERA entering today's start versus the Mariners. Let me explain just how bad Liriano has been in 2011. His strikeout rate has dropped from 9.44 in 2010 to just 5.30 this season while his walk rate has gone from 2.72 last year to 6.81 in 2011. He's allowing 1.26 HRs per game and his chase rate has fallen from 34% in 2010 to just 23% this season. If a pitcher was experiencing these types of changes with any of the aforementioned statistics, it'd be cause for concern. The fact that Liriano is struggling with all of them signals he isn't the same pitcher this year. He's throwing about 1.5 mph slower yet has thrown his fastball 5% more than in 2010. He's also throwing his slider less often. Overall, it appears Liriano's become a pitch-to-contact pitcher. I have no confidence that Liriano is going to turn things around so if you can trade him for a bag of peanuts, you may want to consider the exchange.
Travis Hafner - One of the many feel good stories so far for the Cleveland Indians is the re-emergence of Travis Hafner. After going 1-for-3 with 3 RBI Monday, Pronk is hitting .339/.407/.532 with 5 HRs and 19 RBI for the season. Hafner owns a decent enough .189 ISO and is walking in 10% of his ABs. However, Hafner is also getting ridiculously lucky with a .408 BABIP which has fueled his high BA. Aside from the BABIP, Hafner's overall numbers are just slightly better than his 2009 marks when he hit 16 HRs and drove in 49 in limited ABs. The fact that Hafner's shoulder is strong enough to play 5 of 7 games each week means he's got a real chance at 20-23 HRs to go along with 80 RBI by season's end. Those aren't terrible numbers from your utility but don't expect the BA to remain so high.
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