Yovani Gallardo – With the Brewers vs. Nationals game postponed Saturday due to rain, Yovani Gallardo had his start pushed back to this afternoon, which gives his fantasy owners a chance to go to church and pray that the big RHP starts striking out batters soon. Through 20 innings, Gallardo has exactly 8 strikeouts or a 3.60 K/9 rate. Considering his career mark is 9.14, I’m not too concerned about a 20 inning sample. He still owns a 2.70 ERA (although his FIP is 4.28) and he’s inducing 7% more ground balls compared to last season. There’s nothing wrong with his fastball (still 92 mph) although batters are making substantially more contact on pitches outside the strike zone (75% compared to 59% career mark). He’s also only allowed 1 HR. Build anxiety with whoever owns Gallardo in your league and try to steal him in a buy-low trade.
Edinson Volquez – When Edinson Volquez faces the Pirates today, you’ll have a pretty good idea of whether he’s going to post a good or bad start based on his first inning results. In general, Volquez and the first inning of games just don’t get along. In 2011, Volquez has allowed 2 ER in innings 2-9 and 9 ER in the first inning and, for his career, he owns a 5.57 ERA in the 1st inning – the highest of any inning in which he pitches. Overall in 2011, the RHP has continued a career trend of struggling with control. Despite throwing a first-pitch strike to 64% of batters this season, Volquez still owns a troubling 5.29 walk rate after posting a 5.03 mark in 2010. He’s also been hurt by the long ball as he’s already yielded 3 HRs in just 17 innings. The strikeouts will always be there, but until Volquez can lower his walk rate and limit HRs, he’s going to remain a high-risk, high-reward SP in all league formats.
Jonny Gomes – You know it’s early in the season when Jonny Gomes is posting a 26% walk rate. The Reds’ outfielder connected for his 4th and 5th HRs of the season Saturday against Pittsburgh and is off to a nice start in 2011. He’s already recorded 13 RBI, owns a .683 SLG% and is showing great patience with a 15:10 BB/K ratio. Realizing we’re talking about a small sample size, I’m still intrigued about Gomes’ sleeper potential this season. It was just 2 seasons ago in 2009 that Gomes posted a .274 ISO and hit 20 HRs in just 281 ABs. While he did struggle in 2010 with a .164 ISO and 18 HRs in 511 ABs, it was also Gomes’ first season getting every day ABs and he faltered down the stretch by recording just a .706 OPS in the second half (compared to an .801 mark in the first half). With a career .215 ISO and playing home games in Cincinnati, feel free to make Gomes a speculative add with the hopes he can keep up his fast start.
Troy Tulowitzki – Tulo may lead the majors with 7 HRs, but what’s been just as impressive is his improved walk rate this season. Colorado’s SS has never posted a walk rate above 12% in his major league career, but he’s already taken 12 walks against just 5 strikeouts in 2011 – good for a 19% walk rate through 14 games. By being more selective and patient, Tulowitzki is getting better pitches to hit and absolutely crushing those pitches. His chase rate has dropped from 28% in ’10 to just 18% heading into last night’s game against the Cubs and his SLG% is .865 through 14 games. Tulowitzki also owns a 20% LD rate and is hitting more fly balls this season which has helped boost his HR total. It’s been said before, but all indications point to Tulo having his best year yet in ’11.
Ryan Dempster – After posting a 6.30 ERA in his first 3 starts, I’ve noticed the “Dumpster” nickname resurfacing from fantasy owners as they grow impatient with the RHP’s slow start. It’s not time to panic yet and I expect Dempster to get back on track soon, although perhaps not in today’s start against Colorado on the road. Dempster has actually posted an excellent 9.90 strikeout rate and is walking just over 3 batters per game in 2011. He’s been undone by the HR (4 allowed in 20 IP) and some bad luck as he owns a 59% strand rate and .321 BABIP. Over the past 3 seasons, Dempster has struck out at least 172 batters and recorded FIPs of 3.41, 3.87 and 3.99 so it’s unlikely he’ll continue with his current struggles. This is another buy-low situation so take advantage if you can.
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