Mike Pelfrey - Pelfrey improved from hideous to poor yesterday, as the Met #1 starter allowed four runs (three earned) and eleven baserunners in 5 1/3 innings against Colorado. Pelfrey's control has escaped him thus far this year, and he's also continuing a trend from last year that saw his GB% drop....a dangerous thing to have happen when you allow as many balls in play as Pelfrey does. I'll maintain that Pelfrey is at best a #4 starter when everything is going smoothly.....and that doesn't apply right now. I would shy away from putting him in my lineup at least until either the control or the GB rate improve....preferably both.
Starlin Castro - Castro had three singles, three runs, and a steal yesterday in the 5-4 win over Houston, and he's hitting a robust .364 through his first 10 games. His contact rate is up above 95% early this year, and after watching him post an 86% figure as a 20 year old last year I'm convinced he'll be able to put up a few 90% contact years before he's through. He does already have two doubles and two triples, but he's hitting 55% of balls in play on the ground, so I wouldn't expect an awful lot in the way of power right now...he's going to be almost strictly AVG, R, SB for a while. He's a very useful player at a weak position, and obviously there's clearly upside here down the road from a power standpoint.
Jose Tabata - Tabata has stayed hot for the Pirates, hitting in all 10 games thus far and swiping bases in each of the last three. The 22 year old leads the majors in hits since the 2010 All-Star break, and his improved power and patience make him a must add in all formats, even if regression (especially on the AVG end) is likely.
Edinson Volquez - Remember 2008? Volquez was a Cy Young candidate that year despite 4.3 BB/9, so it can happen. So far his line doesn't look like much, but there are two fluky things in it that make me wonder if he's going to have what's becoming a more and more common big 2nd year after TJ surgery. The two items are: 1) 9 of the 11 runs scored against him through 3 starts have been in the 1st inning, and 2) 3 of the 9 flyballs he has allowed this year have gone out of the park. Neither one of those items will continue to this extent, his velocity is normal, his contact rate against is normal, and his GB% is actually even a bit higher than normal. He pitches in a tough home park, but I'm very optimistic.
Ryan Dempster - Just the slightest bit of caution here on Dempster, who after last night has struck out 22 men in 20 IP thus far. Dempster's three outings have come against three bottom-tier offenses in PIT, ARI, and HOU, yet he still hasn't been able to keep any of them off the board. His velocity is down almost one full mph, his swinging strike% is on the decline for the fourth straight year, and his contact rate against is nudging up near 80%. So far he's still racking up the K's, but he's going to be 34 in a few weeks and all these negative indicators are going to mean something sooner or later. I'm reserving judgment for another few outings, but I'm just a slight bit concerned right now.
