Alex Gordon – Is this the year Alex Gordon finally puts it all together and becomes an impact, middle-of-the-order hitter? If he maintains his current .426 BABIP, the answer is a resounding yes. However, considering Gordon’s career BABIP is .301, let’s assume that number regresses over the next few months –what should we expect from the former third baseman-turned-outfielder? Unlike past seasons, Gordon has basically stopped taking walks as he owns a 4% BB% in ’11 compared to a 10% career mark. If he doesn’t reverse this trend, his OBP is going to plummet once his BABIP drops. He also owns a .182 ISO which is just .20 higher than his career mark and likely aided, again, by that extremely high BABIP. One positive sign for Gordon is that he’s cut his strikeouts from 25% in ’10 to just 19% this season. Gordon has also been hitting a lot of line drives (26% LD%) and ground balls (43%), which is much different than his career trends. Overall, though, I’m not seeing a lot that makes me think Gordon has turned the corner. Perhaps he’s focused more on hitting down on the ball which has resulted in the line drive/ground ball rates that have helped push up that BABIP. But in such a small sample, I have trouble buying Gordon is doing anything more than having a nice hot streak that’s aided by some luck. Sorry, but I can’t jump on board the Gordon bandwagon quite yet.
Dan Haren – Besides, perhaps, Josh Johnson and teammate Jered Weaver, no pitcher in baseball has been more dominant than Dan Haren so far this season. The Angels’ other ace will face Boston today in search of a 5-0 start. Last season was a tough one for Haren, who posted his highest FIP (3.71) and ERA (3.91) since 2006 when he was with the Athletics. You can attribute a large part of Haren’s success to outstanding control as he owns just a 0.58 walk rate. Haren’s always had solid control (his career walk rate is under 2.00) but he’s been especially pinpoint in 2011. The righty has also mixed up his pitch selection, tossing fewer fastballs (-6% compared to ’10) and more cutters (+9% compared to ’10) which has helped him post the highest chase rate of his career with a 36% mark. It’s unlikely Haren can keep his walk rate this low over the coming weeks and he’s also unlikely to maintain his current 0.29 HR/9 mark. Still, it’s a great sign to see Haren come out of the gate so strong and he should have a chance to finish the season as a top-5 fantasy starter.
Michael Pineda – Through 3 starts, Michael Pineda has lived up to the hype that had him ranked in the top-20 minor league prospects entering this season. The 22-year old RHP enters today’s game against the Athletics with a 2.33 ERA, 2.49 FIP and 2-1 record. In his minor league career, Pineda struck out 8.8 batters per game, walked just 2.1 and posted an incredible 0.5 HR rate. He’s only tossed 19 innings at the big league level this season, but Pineda already owns a solid 7.45 strikeout rate and has yet to allow a homer despite a 56% fly ball rate. I realize it’s a small sample, but I am a bit concerned about Pineda’s line drive (20%) and ground ball (24%) rates. It’s hard to imagine the youngster can continue to allow those numbers and keep his ERA low. Obviously, Pineda has a lot value in keeper leagues but he is also a decent option in one-year leagues, especially when he’s pitching at Safeco which should help forgive all those fly balls. If you own him today, you should be in for a solid start thanks to the fact he’s facing a weak offense and enjoying a spacious ballpark.
Jeff Francis – When Jeff Francis pitched last season, he actually didn’t pitch that poorly. Sure, the guy had a 5.00 ERA, which is pretty bad, but he was very unlucky as evidenced by his .320 BABIP and 64% strand rate. Looking closer, we see that Francis actually had a decent 3.88 FIP, limited the HRs (0.95 HR/9) and owned a respectable 2.21 K/BB rate. With those numbers in mind, perhaps Francis’ first 27 innings this season aren’t quite as surprising. Through 4 starts, Francis has recorded a 3.00 ERA and 3.32 FIP to go along with a decreased walk rate (1.00 in ’11 vs. 2.87 career mark). The downside is that Francis hasn’t recorded a win yet and his strikeout rate is low (4.67), even by his standards. In deep AL-only leagues, the lefty isn’t worth much more than the last roster spot in your rotation at this point in the season, but he might have value at some point, especially if he can increase his strikeout rate closer to his 6.10 career average. Francis draws a tough matchup today against the Rangers.
Josh Tomlin – Entering Thursday night’s game against the Royals, Josh Tomlin had a 4.83 FIP which is pretty bad. He had allowed 1.37 HRs per game, posted just a 1.83 K/BB and enjoyed an 87% strand rate. Oh yeah, and his BABIP was .187. Baseball is certainly a funny game because despite all those poor indicators, Tomlin owned a 2.75 ERA and 3-0 record. He lowered that ERA to just 2.33 after tossing 7 1/3 innings of 1-run ball versus Kansas City last evening. Tomlin will likely be a popular pickup thanks to that low ERA and 0.89 WHIP but he really should remain on the waiver wire. Pretty much everything is going right for Tomlin and he’s bound for quite a jarring regression at some point in the not-too-distant future.
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