Delmon Young OF (MIN) – Young went 0-4 last night to drop his average to .167 and has now struck out 9 times versus just one walk. Truth is, with a free swinger like Young, cold stretches like this are going to happen. Part of the reason Young was successful last year was, despite staying a free swinger, he lowered his strikeout rate by improving the amount of contact he made on pitches he swung at (up to 82.4% from around 75% his first four seasons). The good news for owners thus far this year is that number is at 81.7%, so pretty much where Young was last season. As a result, the K% will drop. Again, the downside to owning a guy like Young is his lack of plate discipline makes him prone to rough patches. Hang in there, though, as this former top prospect who is entering his peak years (25 YO) made tremendous strides in his game last year (improved power and contact rate most notably) and should be an RBI machine out of the 4th and 5th spots in the Minnesota batting order.
Joe Mauer C (MIN) – Mauer is off to a really slow start as his ISO is a putrid .033 and his average just .233 thanks to a .280 BABIP (.344 career mark). Look for those numbers to rise significantly in the coming weeks as Mauer’s distribution of balls in play normalizes. Currently, Mauer is a worm killer out there as he has a GB% of 80.0. There’s no reason we shouldn’t see that dip towards Mauer’s career mark of 49.7%, while his LD% of 4 and FB% of 16 should also revert towards Mauer’s career averages of 22.6 and 27.7, respectively. There’s enough of a track record and established skill set here that owners shouldn’t worry.
Jeff Francis SP (KC) – The Jeff Francis resurgence continues as he posted his third straight quality start for the Royals. He went 7 innings and allowed 3 ER while striking out 5 and walking just 1. Francis now has a 13:3 K:BB ratio and has allowed just one free pass in each of his starts. Perhaps most impressively, Francis entered last night’s start with a 58.1 GB%, which is only sure to rise as he got 12 groundball outs versus just on flyout! I’m afraid teams will hit Francis harder the more they see him, as he has the advantage of being new to the AL. Still, right now his 3 quality starts are backed up by some very solid peripherals (great K/BB rate and GB rate), and you could do a lot worse on the waiver wire.
Ricky Romero SP (TOR) – With a third great start, Romero is off to a blistering start for the second straight season. However, I warn owners to not get too giddy. It’s not that Romero’s current statistics aren’t backed up by his peripherals; they are as his K/BB ratio and GB rate are great. Rather, the question is whether or not Romero can maintain those peripherals. Keep in mind that Romero struck out 8.36 batters per 9 over his first 16 starts last season before experiencing a severe drop off over his last 16 starts (6.48 K/9), which led to his ERA rising from 2.83 to 3.73 over that time period. I was too quick to anoint Romero as an elite pitcher last year and won’t make the same mistake this year until he proves he has the stamina to maintain his dominance over a full season. I suggest owners ride out Romero’s hot start and then sell high and allow another owner to take a gamble on Romero sustaining his success over the course of a full season.
Alexei Ramirez SS (CHW) – Ramirez hit two homers yesterday, including one of the walk off variety. After a huge rookie season in 2008, Ramirez has somewhat plateaued the following two years. Still, that was good enough to have him ranked as our 4th best SS heading into the year, and early returns are good. Entering last night’s game, Ramirez had a .67 EYE and .167 ISO. Perhaps this is the year Ramirez finally takes another step forward? I wouldn’t overpay in a trade for Ramirez as his early plate discipline improvement could be nothing more than the result of a small sample size, and a repeat of his .33 EYE from a year ago would make him a risky proposition. Still, I wouldn’t move Ramirez myself, and if I could move a SS with better name recognition (Jimmy Rollins, Derek Jeter), I’d do it in a heartbeat.
