Scott Baker – In fantasy baseball, there’s value in consistency from your starting pitchers. So there’s definitely value in a guy like Scott Baker who has posted FIPs between 3.89 and 4.08 the past 4 seasons. While his value is hurt because he can’t seem to get his ERA below his FIP, Baker improved his strikeout rate to a career-high 7.82 last season while maintaining his walk and HR rates. His ERA may have been an ugly 4.49 ERA last season, but part of that was due to a .323 BABIP. His FIP was actually a much more respectable 3.96. He obviously struggled in his first start against the Yankees but draws a much easier assignment against Oakland today. If he can maintain a strikeout rate around 7.80-8.00, Baker will have more value this year than ever before. Keep an eye on him as a cheap but valuable pitcher this season.
Clay Buchholz – Even Clay Buchholz admitted during the offseason that he had been fortunate during 2010 when he posted a 2.33 ERA and won 17 games for the Red Sox. The RHP’s FIP was 3.61 and he enjoyed an unsustainable .261 BABIP and 79% strand rate. He also lowered his HR rate from 1.27 in 2009 to just 0.47 last season. So, there have been plenty of signs that Buchholz was not likely to be as successful in 2011 as he was in 2010. On Saturday, the 26-year old was shelled for the second straight start by lasting just 3 2/3 innings and yielding 4 ER against the Yankees. I realize that Buchholz has drawn two of the best hitting clubs in baseball for his first two starts (TEX, NYY), but I still don’t like that he’s looked so bad out of the gate. He’s also not striking anyone out with just 5 Ks in 10 innings. Buchholz should be a decent fantasy baseball starting pitcher in 2011 but, thanks to regression, definitely won’t have a sub-3.00 ERA at season’s end.
Josh Tomlin – In 12 starts last season, Josh Tomlin was a fly ball pitcher (28% GB%) who didn’t strike out anyone (5.30 K/9) and gave up a lot of HRs (1.23 HR/9). Based off those numbers, you can understand why I was so confused to see the box score from Tomlin’s first start of the season against Boston: 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 K, 3 BB, 5 FB, 13 GB, 1 LD. Somehow, Tomlin induced a 13:5 GB/FB ratio, which is completely different than anything he did last season. Does this mean he’s worth a pickup in your league right now? Of course not – we’re talking about Josh Tomlin here. However, Tomlin does draw the weak-hitting Mariners today so this is a good opportunity to see if he can replicate his success from start number 1 to start number 2. Even if he does, I’d still need to see him post some better ground ball marks over the next few outings before saying he’s worth an add to rosters in deep AL-only and mixed leagues.
Zach Britton – After holding the Rays to just 1 ER over 6 innings during his first major league start, Zach Britton topped that performance Saturday by completely bottling up the Rangers’ offense. Britton’s final line was beautiful: 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 2 K. Obviously, if he’s available, you should add the young southpaw to your staff. But I’d also temper your expectations for what he’s going to deliver the rest of the season. First, pitching in the A.L. East is always a challenge for any pitcher, especially a rookie. Second, he’s shown a streak of wildness by walking 6 in just 13 2/3 innings and he also issued 3.3 walks per game in the minors. Finally, he has limited strikeout potential as evidenced by his career 7.3 K/9 mark in the minors, which will likely drop against major league hitters. It’s obvious the kid is talented and he’s definitely worth a look but don’t bank on him cruising through his first season in the majors like he has during his first two starts. If you own Britton in one-year leagues, now’s the time to sell high.
Chone Figgins – Oh, Chone Figgins, I really dislike you. You posted a .298 BA and .395 OBP with 42 steals in 2009 so I traded for you as my third baseman. Then you were terrible, hitting a mere .235 and collecting just 12 extra base hits before the All-Star break. At that point, I basically left you for dead. But then, aided by a .340 BABIP, you posted a solid .286 second half BA and finished the season with another 42 steals so I was sure you’d have a productive 2011 campaign. So when you came back up in this year’s auction, I took you for $9. Then in your first game, you not only steal a base, you hit a home run! I am happy! You are happy! And we’re both excited for your bounce back season.
Since that first game, you had tallied exactly 1 hit in 25 ABs prior to Saturday and entered last night’s game with a .100/.097/.233 slash line. I realize your BABIP was at .080 and that you collected 2 hits last evening, but I don’t really care. I hate you now more than ever.
The End.
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