Ricky Romero - In his first 3 starts, all against weak-hitting clubs (MIN, OAK, SEA), Ricky Romero cruised to a 1.66 ERA and 20:4 K:BB mark. However, in his last start against Boston, Romero struggled with his control, walking 5 batters and striking out 4 in just 4 1/3 innings. I liked Romero coming into the season because from 2009 to 2010, he improved his strikeout rate and lowered his walk and HR rates which resulted in a solid 3.64 FIP. In 26 innings this season (I know, it's early), Romero is posting the highest strikeout rate of his career (8.31) and lowest walk rate (3.12), so hopefully he'll continue to trend in the right direction. Romero generates enough ground balls and strikeouts to consistently post-sub 4.00 ERAs at the big league level - as long as he can limit the walks. Expect a nice bounce back from Romero in today's start against the Rays.
Fausto Carmona - I wrote on Friday that the key to success for Fausto Carmona is limiting the free passes and keeping the ball on the ground. Against the Twins on Saturday, Carmona walked 4 (1 IBB) and struck out just 1 en route to getting shelled for 6 ER in only 5 innings. The walks didn't directly result in Minnesota runs, but they did speak to the fact that Carmona didn't have his best stuff. He recorded a 10:4 GB:FB but too often the Twins made solid contact as it appeared Carmona was unable to locate his sinker. You'll get these types of games from Carmona from time to time and it points to the risk of starting a pitcher who doesn't have a good strikeout rate. When they are off their game, you don't get help in any category. Carmona's ERA (5.76) looks bad right now but remember he had that terrible first start against Chicago which, coupled with Saturday's outing, has overshadowed the three straight excellent starts he was able to string together in the last two weeks.
Russell Martin - Seriously, Russell Martin? Two more HRS on Saturday? I've written about Martin before and there hasn't been much reason to believe in his early-season power, yet the former Dodger just keeps knocking out HRs. Martin clobbered 2 more HRs on Saturday to bring his season total to 6. In 2009 and 2010, Martin posted ISOs under .100 and hasn't reached double figures in HRs since 2008 when he connected for 13. He also hasn't eclipsed a .400 SLG% since 2007 - this season he owns a .722 mark. Martin is still just 28 so a resurgence isn't terribly unreasonable although it'd be pretty amazing for him to return to his 2007-08 form. However, if I own Martin in my fantasy league, I am selling because his value is through the roof right now and likely won't get any higher.
Brandon Morrow - In his much-anticipated return to the mound on Saturday, Brandon Morrow didn't disappoint by striking out 10 Rays in just 5 1/3 innings but was also tagged for 3 ER on 2 walks and 3 hits. He allowed a 1st inning, 2-HR to Johnny Damon and then left the game in 6th only to witness Carlos Villanueva yield a 3-run shot to Ben Zobrist which accounted for Morrow's 3rd ER of the day. There are plenty of positives signs from this first start for Morrow's fantasy owners. He allowed just 5 base runners and cruised through innings 2-5. He also didn't run up his pitch count too terribly high, leaving at 94 pitches (likely because the Jays wanted to closely monitor his first start workload). Finally, did I mention he struck out nearly 2 batters per inning? Morrow may never post an ERA close to 3.00 but he has a good chance to finish the season with a 4.00 ERA and a 9.00 strikeout rate. Morrow will face a tough matchup on the road against the Rangers Thursday.
Justin Morneau - After missing 5 games with an illness, Justin Morneau was back in the Twins' lineup Saturday and helped spark Minnesota's highest scoring game of the season by going 2-for-5 with 2 RBIs. Morneau has struggled to a .224/.262/.310 slash line with 0 HRs in 58 ABs in 2011 as he returns from the aftermaths of a concussion suffered last season. Before getting injured last season, Morneau was posting an outstanding .274 ISO to go along with a 1.055 OPS and 18 HRs. He was definitely benefiting from a .385 which was 90 points above his career average, but there's no doubt Morneau was one of the top 5 hitters in baseball prior to the concussion. It's hard to know how a player will rebound from a hit to the head so I've been conservative with my projections for the Twins' first baseman in 2011. His slow start hasn't made me feel any better although it's good to see him collect a couple hits as he did yesterday. For now, Morneau remains a high risk/high reward option.
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