This is part 2 of the TFC preseason preview. In part 1, I laid out my initial TFC team along with a preview of the corner infielders. Now, it's time for...
Up the middle
Second Base
One of the nice things about the salary cap format is you can really afford to roll the dice on players with skills but are injury prone. You have the ability to roster any backup you want, and the 15 purchases allow you a certain degree of risk taking. I think you might be able to tell where I’m going with this…
Skilled, but brittle
Rickie Weeks MIL – 3310 – Will we see a second straight healthy season out of Weeks? Probably not, but as I said in this contest you can afford to take some chances on health. Weeks has killer bat speed which has led to a 17.5+ HR/FB% in 197 games over the past two seasons. He will score 100 runs in a full season given his baserunning ability, the guys behind him (Braun, Fielder, McGehee, Hart) and his double digit walk percentage. I wouldn’t go into the season counting on it, but there’s also always the chance that Weeks swipes some more bags, which would really put him in the upper echelon of second basemen. Prior to last season, Weeks stole a base about every 5.9 games. He only stole one every 14.5 games last year, although this could be part of a concerted effort to keep Weeks healthy.
Ian Kinsler TEX – 3920 – Kinsler may hit leadoff for a potent Texas lineup, which is especially good for Kinsler who set a career high in BB% (12.2) and EYE (.98) last season. He provides more power numbers than most second basemen thanks to a career .178 ISO, 46.2 FB% and 9.8 HR/FB%. And those numbers were all really on the rise heading into last season in which injuries certainly impacted the cessation of the upward trend of those figures. There’s also nothing like a good splits play in this game, and Kinsler’s career .921 OPS (.728 on the road) really allows you to maximize his value. Get superb numbers on heavy home weeks; get salary cap relief in there on heavy road weeks.
Post-hype sleeper
Gordon Beckham CHW – 2170 – Coming into 2010 there were really high expectations for the young 3B coming off a stellar rookie performance. Unfortunately, Beckham got off to a dreadful start leading to a disappointing .252/.317/.378 campaign. There’s good news, though, for fantasy owners heading into next season. First of all, for those who weren’t paying attention, Beckham’s disappointing final numbers masked an absolutely torrid second half. Over the season’s final three months, Beckham posted a .308/.370/.497 line. I don’t like to get too over excited about half season performances, but, in the case of a 24 YO who was polishing off just his third professional season, I’ll make an exception. Secondly, as was the case with Kinsler, Beckham plays in a fantastic home park; Fantistics gives it a BallPark Factor of 125, indicating it’s an extremely hitter friendly place to play. Ironically, Beckham has a -.048 OPS at home, a number I expect to reverse itself this season.
A plethora of possible value plays
Howie Kendrick LAA – 2850 – He’s a career .295 hitter despite an atrocious .24 EYE. Just imagine what he could do if he was willing to show a little patience (3.8 BB%). He hit 41 doubles last season, and the Fantistics’ projections expect Kendrick, who is entering his peak power years, to convert some of those doubles into extra homers. Still, I’m reluctant to take Kendrick at a position with a lot of options. I don’t like taking a player in this game whose best category (BA) is heavily reliant on the variances of balls in play. Plus, even if some of those doubles turn into homers, Kendrick’s 54.8 GB% really limits power upside. I won’t start with him, but if a month in we start to see even gradual improvements in walk rate and loft, I’ll be buying.
Neil Walker PIT – 1940 – As our projection notes indicate there’s a lot of HR upside here that is coming in under the radar. Our final totals for Walker give him a projected roto value just below Beckham’s. However, if we add a few more steals to Walker’s projected total (3), he actually has a higher projected roto value than Beckham. And it’s not unreasonable to do so considering Walker stole 10 bases (caught just once) in 43 games at AAA before getting called up last season.
Aaron Hill TOR – 2550 – Hill hit a ghastly .203 last season, but we expect his LD% (10.6), BHIP (.149) and slugging versus LHP (.225) all to revert towards normal levels. That’ll mean a bounce back season for Hill. The one positive from Hill’s 2010 year was he showed that his power in 2009 was not a fluke. He posted another solid ISO (.189) thanks to better than normal FB and HR/FB marks for a second basemen. Keep any eye on his quadriceps injury, which for the time being is being made out to be minor.
Final verdict
I’ll start with Weeks, Kinsler and Beckham. All have upside considering those tags, and Beckham and Kinsler have great hitting home parks that will enable me to take advantage of home/road splits. I was rather torn between Beckham/Walker, but Beckham’s higher ceiling and home park swayed me. Plus, when one of Weeks/Kinsler goes down with injury, one of the value priced 2B (Aaron Hill/Howie Kendrick/Neil Walker) will hopefully have emerged. I’d rather start off risky in health than risky in skills at 2B.
If you want to save some cap here, though, it’s not a bad spot to take your favorite three of Beckham/Hill/Kendrick/Walker.
Shortstop
One of the key things in this contest, that is obviously easier said than done, that I try to do when making out my roster is to avoid taking a player who falls flat on his face. Looking at the SS position, there’s a lot of risky candidates. Okay, there’s a lot of really awful candidates and referring to them as risky is being kind as it might imply they carry some sort of upside. When I see a position like this, I’m looking for two types of guys. One, the safe guys. Two, guys that are straight up salary relief that hopefully won’t be dreadful.
The must have
Troy Tulowitzki COL – 5130 – It’s a battle between Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez (5440) for fantasy’s best SS. Fantistics’ projections have Tulowitzki ranked as the slightly better roto option, but the point is moot. Since Tulowitzki has the slightly better tag, it relegates him to must have status over Ramirez. We are eyeing an improvement for the 26 YO stud. He has posted two straight .250+ ISO’s and HR/FB%’s of 18.5 and 17.1 the past two seasons indicate his power is for real. Don’t miss out on Tulo as he enters his peak years.
The “safe” complement
Jose Reyes NYM – 4070 – Okay, we might be stretching the word safe here. Relatively speaking to the rest of the positions, though, Reyes seems to be an okay safe play. He offers the most upside of anyone at the position, outside of the top two guys. He has the most pop out of any speed guy. Sure, he might not be “worth” his tag, but I don’t see anyone else worth rolling the dice on. Plus, at age 28, there’s still potential for Reyes to far exceed his salary. Don’t forget, prior to 2009's injury plagued season, Reyes averaged 64.5 steals, 113 RS and 158 games played over a four year span. It really wasn’t that long ago that Reyes was elite, and as long as it appears he’s heading into the season healthy, I’ll roster him.
Avoid
Jimmy Rollins PHI – 3310 – I have a feeling Rollins is going to be a popular play. Via name recognition he’s right up there with the top guys, and his lower salary will be awfully tempting for a lot of owners. I would advise staying away, though. Here’s what I wrote about Rollins in the Fantistics’ Preseason Prep earlier this offseason:
“Make no mistake about it, Rollins is in decline. The once dual power-speed threat has seen his power drop (declining ISO’s of .235/.160/.173/.131 since ’07) and speed drop (declining speed scores of 8.7/7.8/6.7/6.5 since ’07) the last few years as a result of age (32) related decline. Drew Dinkmeyer astutely noted in one of the Fantistics’ podcasts (in a segment regarding A-Rod I believe) that older hitters sometimes sacrifice power for contact, and thus their EYE can mask age related decline. Well, this is the case with Rollins. His EYE was actually a career best 1.25 this past season, but his decline in ISO, HR/FB%, FB% and LD% can be attributed to sacrificing power for contact. Rollins had a very high contact rate on pitches outside of the strike zone (77.4% versus a career mark of 67.1%).”
Elvis Andrus TEX – 3610 – Andrus may be a popular play, but it’s tough to take a guy like him who offers no power whatsoever. It would be one thing if he was priced extremely low, but his mid to high tag makes him unplayable. Andrus hit zero home runs last season and drove in just 35 runs. His .036 ISO was flat out pathetic, and it makes you wonder if his acceptable 9.6 BB% will drop next year as pitchers really have nothing to fear. It would be one thing if Andrus was a stolen base machine, but with 33 and 32 steals in the past two seasons respectively, there’s nothing here to make him worth this tag.
Salary cap relief
Ian Desmond WAS – 1940 – The thought behind Desmond initially was it would be nice to have a double digit homer and 20+ steal guy to plug in and get extreme salary cap relief. However, I’m worried about Desmond’s RBI and RS potential. His low walk rate (4.9%) limits his on base potential and ultimately run scoring opportunities. The reasons behind that low walk rate, a 33.2 chase percentage, indicate that Desmond is swinging at pitchers’ pitches. That could explain his .124 ISO, which is much lower than his minor league track record. Even with slight improvements in BB% and ISO, the lineup is bad, and that places Desmond’s ceiling at about 70/70 in the RS/RBI departments. I’m not looking for a ton of upside out of my salary cap relief guy, but I don’t like the RS/RBI combination that Desmond will provide.
Asdrubal Cabrera CLE – 1860 – I still think there’s a little bit room for improvement in the power department. Cabrera posted a .130 ISO in 2009 thanks to a whopping 42 doubles along with an impressive 22 LD%. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit 10 homers, but even if we write off his injury plagued 2010 season and just have Cabrera projected to repeat his 2009 year, he’s worth this tag. And while Cleveland is far from a powerhouse, Cabrera will be hitting behind Grady Sizemore and in front of Shin Shoo Choo and Carlos Santana. That’s not a bad spot and a big improvement from his situation last year when Grady Sizemore and Carlos Santana were missing from the lineup for the majority of the season. His RBI ceiling may not be any higher than Desmond’s, but Cabrera is a safer option in average and runs scored. I’d rather sacrifice some homers out of my salary cap relief spot, and go with the safer, better rounded candidate.
Final verdict
1.) Troy Tulowitzki – the must have
2.) Jose Reyes – Hard to ignore this upside at such a weak position, especially considering his history and age
3.) Asdrubal Cabrera – Originally had Desmond, but a closer look makes me think Cabrera has a better chance to be average all around, making him a more ideal cap relief guy,
I think players are going to have to make a decision between Hanley Ramirez and Albert Pujols. If there’s one major shakeup to my roster, it will be replacing Pujols with a more inexpensive first base option. That should deem my extreme cap relief at SS unnecessary and allow me to roster Hanley to shuffle in for Reyes on weeks where I can afford more offense. For the time being, though, I’m sticking with the original plan.
As always, if you have a gripe with one of my evaluations, want more clarification regarding my roster choices or think I left someone out I shouldn't have, drop me an e-mail at mleone@fantistics.com, comment below or better yet, head over to the TFC message boards and discuss it with the TFC community. I’ll be sure to respond.
Note: Last preview segment I pointed out how the sortable TFC salaries in the Fantistics’ projections software are invaluable when putting together your roster. Well, another Fantistics goodie that will be an invaluable tool are Lyle Logan’s 14-day rotations. In season Fantistics subscribers get access to these uber accurate projected rotations, and they are really useful for all weekly fantasy leagues especially a salary cap contest such as the TFC, where playing matchups and identifying two start pitchers is crucial. Look for his early estimate edition of the 14-day rotation projections some time today (3/16), an update on 3/21 and daily posting starting on 3/26!
