Thoughts on carrying a 5th RP
With the taxi squad being set at 14 players, there has been some talk on the discussion board on whether or not carrying a 5th RP is a good idea. I don’t believe it is. As I stated in the catcher preview, I really like to use my taxi squad to help maximize my statistics, and I don’t see how carrying an extra relief pitcher is valuable. Yes, there’s a good chance people go cheap with their closers this year, and as a result there’s a strong probability that you will have to replace a relief pitcher at some point. Still, I’d rather use a buy when my closer goes down or loses a job. If I take 5 cheap pitchers from the beginning, there’s no guarantee the 5th one is going to be any good. Why not start with four and then when one goes down, chances are a cheap closer will have established himself by then? I just don’t see the value in carrying a 5th RP, save for maybe if you want to carry a high priced stud closer with the fifth guy that you want to put in on weeks where you have some extra cap space.
So, I will carry four starting pitchers. My goal is to go cheap at relief pitcher, so I’m looking at the four most skilled closers under three million that have sole possession of closer duties to start the season.
The must have
Huston Street (COL) – 2780 – Okay broken record time: In this game starting with skills is more important than starting with health. Street has elite closer skills for less than an elite price tag. He has a 3 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over his career, which consists of 378 IP, and at age 27 there’s no reason to expect a decline in skills. No one else under 3 million has the track record of Street, and he’s a no brainer here.
Guys with skills, but not much major league closer experience
Matt Thornton (CHW) – 2550 – Thornton has just 17 saves over his career and never a single season total more than the 8 he was credited with last season. However, the White Sox have given him the job to start the season, and there’s no reason he shouldn’t succeed. Thornton has posted 3 year ERA’s (2.67/2.74/2.67), FIP’s (2.75/2.46/2.14) and xFIP’s (2.71/2.79/2.62) that are all dominant as are his 3 year WHIP’s (1.00/1.08/1.01). On top of this three year run of dominance, Thornton’s strikeout rate has increased every year for the last 4 seasons. Here are his K/9 the past 5 years: 8.17/8.79/10.29/10.82/12.02. He’s a very solid play.
John Axford (MIL) – 2700 – Axford took over the closer role for Milwaukee last season as a rookie, and he recorded 24 saves. Axford has the dominance of a top tier closer 11.79 K/9, but unlike most closers, in a good way, he’s less susceptible to the long ball as indicated by the 48.1 GB% he posted last season. The one flaw in Axford’s game is his wildness, which make him riskier than Thornton or Street. If he can repeat last year’s high BB/9 of 4.19 that’s still okay. However, prior to last year, Axford’s walk rates in the minors were 5+/9 for the most part, and a return to those levels could create a problem.
Avoid
Drew Storen (WAS) – 2700 – Storen’s long term prospects are good, but his skills are not toally in place yet. Storen was just okay in his rookie season – 8.46K/9, 2.36 K/BB. His WHIP will be higher than other options here, and the fact that he appears to be in a closer by committee, at least initially, makes him a non-play.
Fernando Rodney (LAA) – 2550 – It must be tempting to take a guy who saved 37 games two years ago and enters the year as the Angels’ (a team that normally seems to get a lot of save chances) closer. Rodney’s really only skill is his ability to generate ground balls (48.2 GB% for his career), and his K/9 have dropped sharply the past two seasons (10.93/7.26/7.01). He doesn’t have the control to afford that low K rate (BB/9 of 6.69/4.88/4.63 the past 3 seasons). Bottom line: there’s no reason to roster these skills, or lack thereof, even if Rodney gives you saves.
Not as sure of a thing as you may think
Chris Perez (CLE) – 2700 – Perez isn’t an avoid because he’s got the closer role locked up and isn’t bad by any means. However, he may not be the lock that some people think he is when they see the 1.74 ERA he posted a year ago. Perez actually pitched much worse than that indicates, as can be seen by his 3.54 FIP and 4.30 xFIP. A lucky .222 BABIP and 86.1 LOB% really aided Perez much more than his skills. He’ll need his K/9 (which was just 8.71 last year) to rise back to 2009 levels (10.74) if he’s going to even come close to duplicating last year’s success.
Final Verdict
1.) Huston Street
2.) Matt Thornton
3.) John Axford
4.) JJ Putz (ARZ) – 2700 – Quietly was dominant for Chicago last season (ERA/FIP/xFIP of 2.83/2.52/2.87), and should see those numbers sustain, if healthy, with move to NL.
