Behind the plate
Generally, I like to go cheap at catcher as I’d rather spend my money on a safer, more predictable position that offers more upside. Well, we are in what some consider to be a golden age of catcher hitting – (Mauer, McCann, Martinez, Posey), so some will be tempted to play this position safe and go with two of those guys. Despite the safety of the top four guys, I’m sticking with my usual philosophy of going cheap at catcher, and there’s one guy that makes it very easy to do:
The must have
Carlos Santana (CLE) – 1450 – Entering the season a week shy of his 25th birthday, Santana is already a top 5 catcher with the potential to be as high as number one by the end of the season. Two things stick out as extremely impressive from Santana’s injury shortened rookie year: a 1.28 EYE and .207 ISO. Throw in a 21.1 LD% that is very solid and 9 steals in 113 games (split between MLB and AAA), and Santana is the complete package. Another bonus is that Santana will see time at 1B and DH, meaning he will rack up a lot of at bats for a catcher. Fantistics projects Santana to hit .276 with 79 RS, 76 RBI’s, 22 HR’s and 5 SB’s. I think there’s a lot of room for improvement in those numbers too, and that makes Santana an absolute must have at this price – one of the biggest locks in this competition.
The cheapie
JP Arencibia (TOR) – 1180 – The lowest priced option at this position, I like Arencibia because of his power upside. Arencibia hit a whopping 32 homers in just 104 games at AAA last year, posting an unheard of .325 ISO. He hit 2 in an 11 game stint with the Blue Jays. That power is why I’m willing to roster Arencibia who certainly has his risk. He’s never walked a lot in the minors, something that is unlikely to change. Combine that with sub 80% contact rates that are also unlikely to improve, at least initially, at the major league level and you have a catcher with some serious BA risk. Also, while Arencibia will definitely play, he may see 2 out of 5 turns in the rotation go to Jose Molina. But hey, you got to gamble somewhere, and why not make it a gamble on the cheapest player at one of the inherently riskiest positions anyways.
Avoid
Miguel Olivo (SEA) – 1790 – Olivo hit .269 last season and has 37 combined homers over the past two years, which will entice some owners. However, consider that Olivo has a dreadful career EYE of .16 and 17.9 LD%, and you’ll realize last year’s batting average was a fluke. Also, those 37 homers over the past two years were driven by a 23 homer performance in 2009 that was driven by a HR/FB% that has to be considered an outlier for Olivo. Here are his HR/FB%’s the past 5 seasons: 12.7/12.1/12.1/21.7/12.4. On top of that Olivo is moving from the Colorado lineup to the Seattle lineup, from Coors to Safeco. He is also dealing with a groin injury, and although he’ll be ready for the opener, most likely, he’s definitely someone to avoid rostering.
Middle priced options
Mike Napoli (TEX) – 1940 – Napoli has a ton of power as evidenced by three straight 20+ homer seasons despite inconsistent playing time. Still, some people may pass on him as a result of his .238 BA last year. However, Fantistics expects a rise up to .271 due to an unlucky singles average costing him around 30 points of BA (as indicated in our projection notes). Plus, he’s moving to a better hitting ballpark and a better lineup; Napoli is a solid play.
Matt Wieters (BAL) – 1790 – Wieters has certainly disappointed in his first 2 years as the Baltimore backstop. He has a career OPS of just .721. Still it’s way too early to label this immense talent a bust, and last year’s second half does offer some optimism heading into 2011: OPS increase from .672 to .730. There’s not a lot there in the numbers, though, to suggest we should expect anything remotely special from Wieters, but if you are betting on skills/scouting there are worse bets to make.
Despite the 14 bench spots, I’m going to play it risky and go naked (no backup) at catcher, rostering just Santana and Arencibia. My reasoning: 1-I like to utilize my taxi squad in order to give me flexibility and the potential to maximize my statistics. I don’t believe taking a backup at a weak offensive position fits into that philosophy. 2-Carlos Santana is never coming out of my lineup. 3-I like the built in salary cap relief that Arancibia gives me, so I wouldn’t see myself benching him much anyways. He’s certainly risky, but I can live with the low BA at that price. Also, I can always buy a Hank Conger or Jesus Montero should either rookie work their way into regular at bats, and it will not change the structure of my team since both are at the same tag as Arencibia.
If I were to go with one of the safe catchers, it would certainly be either Posey or McCann. I have the top four grouped very close together, so it wouldn’t make sense to pay more for Martinez or especially Mauer. Posey’s probably the best choice as he’s a much safer RS bet then McCann and may garner more at bats.
