Carlos Guillen - 2B and LF are really the only spots where there is potentially some competition this spring for Detroit, and most of the 2B uncertainty surrounds Carlos Guillen's health. The 35 year old has only averaged 386 PA's the past three seasons and is coming off microfracture surgery, so even though he is a bit ahead of schedule on his rehab I still think it is very possible that Will Rhymes ends up starting quite a bit in April. With Guillen's decline in power (ISO under his career average in 2 of past 3 seasons and significantly below his peak years) and his health concerns, I would downgrade him a bit on draft day.
Ryan Raburn - Ryan Raburn is going to be 30 just a couple of weeks into the season, but it looks like he might finally get his chance to keep a starting slot for the Tigers this spring. Raburn has hit 31 homers in his last 700 PA's for Detroit, and he's done so while batting in the low .280's with a handful of steals thrown in. Sure, he's barely adequate in LF, which means he may lose some end-game PA's to a Casper Wells or Clete Thomas-type, but as long as the Tigers don't become too enamored with the tape-measure shots that Brennan Boesch is already hitting this spring we all have a nice little sleeper to look for in Raburn. Our projection for him may look like we're forecasting a breakout, but in reality it's basically just his last few years with the addition of regular playing time. Raburn is an excellent lesser-known OF choice for 2011, although in keeper leagues your enthusiasm should be tempered a bit by his age....we're likely only going to see a season or two more of his peak performance.
Justin Morneau - Morneau has still not been "game-cleared" by doctors following his most recent concussion (back in early July), and what makes it all the more unfortunate is that he was well on his way to the best season of an already solid career before the injury. Morneau was worth over 5 wins in just half a season last year for the Twins (5.3 WAR), easily on pace for career highs in just about every offensive category. If I had to guess I would say that Morneau will probably be ready by Opening Day, but it really is mostly guesswork because concussion rehab is incredibly variable. His situation obviously needs to be monitored very closely the next few weeks to determine what value should be placed on him for 2011...I'm fairly risk-averse when there's such a huge question with a player that would be a big part of your roster so my inclination is to look elsewhere for production at 1B.
Brian Duensing - The back of the Twins rotation has three guys competing for two spots it seems, as Brian Duensing, Kevin Slowey, and Nick Blackburn each try to stay out of the long relief/swingman role. If (sizeable caveat here) performance is the determining factor, I'd have to think that Duensing and Slowey will take the #4 and #5 spots, shifting Blackburn and his complete lack of K's to the bullpen. Slowey is basically Scott Baker-lite, so we're all familiar with that profile. Duensing is interesting, as his rather pedestrian minor league numbers look extremely similar to his first few years in the majors....not much of a dropoff at all. If anything, Duensing improved his control significantly enough last year so that his middling ability to miss bats doesn't appear to be enough of a problem to prevent some success. His GB rate moved into the very impressive range (nearly 53%) last year, enough so that his FIP ERA actually dropped under 4.00 despite very modest strikeout totals. I think Duensing is a solid bet to justify a back-end rotational slot in AL-only leagues and potentially deeper mixed leagues as well...his obvious limitations (stuff-wise, which translates directly to his K rates) likely prevent him from providing a ton of value in most mixed leagues.
Dan Johnson - There are quite a few people worked up over Dan Johnson's prospects this season, so allow me to throw a bucket of cold water on things. Johnson is 31 years old and has NEVER failed to hit at the minor league level. Unfortunately, he has almost always failed to hit at the big-league level. The excitement over Johnson seems to fall into two categories: those excited over his AAA stats last season (see above comment), and those excited over the 24 HR's he hit in 325 AB's in Japan two years ago. Japanese parks are bandboxes compared to most of the parks here, and n addition to the 24 homers Johnson also batted just .215. Color me unimpressed. I think it's eminently possible that Johnson could hit 20 homers playing every day, and his decent batting eye will prevent his OBP from being the proverbial lead balloon. I just don't think the handful of walks and homers that he will provide is going to be worth enough to justify a roster spot in most formats.....we have 1214 AB's that show Johnson to be a marginal batter at the big-league level, let alone as a 1B in a fantasy (or big-league, for that matter) lineup.
John Jaso - I'm definitely bullish on the 27 year old Jaso, who it seems as of this moment is likely to bat leadoff for the Rays for the bulk of this season. Jaso's ability to get on base will be critical to the Rays' offensive production this year, and while he likely be spelled by Kelly Shoppach against most lefties I still think he's going to be a worthwhile low-end #1 catcher. He has a bit more power than he showed last year as well....I don't think a .150 ISO is out of the question. You don't find many catchers that can provide you with some production in all five categories, but Jaso is certainly one of the few that is capable.
Jason Castro - Jason Castro is going to have surgery to repair a torn right meniscus today, which means that the average rehab time will put him on the DL for the first few weeks of the season. The 23 year old backstop is projected to improve a bit this year from an absymal rookie season...almost to the point where he'd be a worthwhile 2nd catcher in most formats. There's a smidgeon of potential here, but the injury makes it so you'll have to look elsewhere for a backup backstop to open the season. Castro's PT will likely fall to Humberto Quintero, whose special brand of punchlessness we're all familiar with. How one is afforded a ninth season of MLB after posting an OPS of .593 for the first eight is beyond me.
Jesus Flores - There isn't an awful lot of data to support my affinity for Jesus Flores, what with his Rule V selection back in 2007 and then a 12-month plus rehabilitation from injury, but there's enough there to get you a little excited. The 26 year old is stuck in a catching logjam with Pudge Rodriguez and Wilson Ramos, with highly touted prospect Derek Norris coming up behind the three, so opportunity may be difficult to come by. Many people think that the Nats will deal a catcher in the next month or two, and if that comes to pass (whether it is Flores that is dealt or not), the playing time that will fall to Flores should increase to the point where he is a very intriguing option as a second catcher. Our projection of .280-12-45 in less than half a season illustrates Flores' potential.....let's hope that he has a chance to realize it. The second you see a trade involving a Washingotn catcher, Flores becomes a worthwhile waiver pickup.
Ivan Nova - It's easy to get excited about anybody that gets a consistent chance to pitch in front of the Yankee offense, and Ivan Nova is no exception. Nova has decent stuff, averaging 93 mph on his fastball last season (10 G, 7 GS), although his K rates seem to illustrate a fairly marginal ability to miss bats. A swinging strike% of 6.8 (leading to a K/9 of 5.57) isn't going to excite anyone, and when coupled with 3.64 walks per nine it's a bit worrisome. His GB% is what might make him a palatable option at the back of a rotation right now, as over 50% grounders led to an HR/9 rate that was better than average (0.86), enabling him to post an FIP ERA of 4.36. That sort of performance could lend itself to double-digit wins for Nova, so while he isn't expected to be a big help in any other category, picking up some cheap wins from your last rotation spot could be a task that he could handle.
Ross Ohlendorf - Ross Ohlendorf's name has been thrown around a couple of my leagues as a potential sleeper this season, so that's something I'd like to put to rest right now. The Pirate offense isn't going to bail him out much, as evidenced by last year's W/L record, but what should be focused on is the fact that his BABIP and HR/FB rates were flukishly low last season. Given his LD% a BABIP of around .350 would have been expected (vs. the actual .281), and despite allowing 9% fewer grounders in 2010 than 2009 his HR/9 actually decreased by 0.27. I'd expect some bounceback in both of those areas, likely leading to an ERA closer to 5.00 than 4.00. I'd look elsewhere (even if only as far as James McDonald in the same rotation) for your 2011 sleeper.
Tommy Hunter - Tommy Hunter managed a 13-4 record through 22 starts with Texas last year, mostly on the strength of a .255 BABIP and a gigantic strand%. Hunter is a flyball pitcher in a hitters' park that saw his swinging strike% drop from 7.4 to 5.8 in his second year with the Rangers. His FIP ERA (4.99 last year) tells the story better than I can: be very cautious here. The Rangers have plenty of other options, ranging from Martin Perez and Michael Kirkman in the minors to Neftali Feliz in the big league pen (since Tanner Scheppers is hanging around with closer-type qualities as well), so don't expect them to give Hunter too many chances to regress.
Carlos Carrasco - Carrasco looks like he will be the 4th starter for the Tribe to start the season, so the opportunity part of "potential sleeper" is covered. Carrasco has solid stuff, averaging 92.9 mph with his fastball last year while liberally mixing in his change and curve, and the young righty has made some fairly significant strides with his control over the past three years, to the point where it's pretty clearly no longer a weakness of his. In both the minors and majors, Carrasco has oddly posted solid GB rates and poor HR rates...two things you obviously don't see together all that often. His HR/FB rates are off the charts. Perhaps that's something that is just an issue with him (grooving 3-1 pitches and the like), but likely that's an area where we could see legitimate improvement over the next year or two. Carrasco is definitely someone that I'd look to gamble on in AL-only leagues this year, and I'd even consider him for a reserve spot in most mixed leagues. His upside is likely only that of a mid-rotation guy, but those are a bit less common than most people seem to realize.
Howie Kendrick - I'm going to remain stubbornly optimistic on Howie Kendrick, despite the fact that he pretty much seems to be what he is at this point. He's just about cut his swinging strike% in half the past two years, and as has been mentioned elsewhere a .290-12-12 line with a bit of upside potential is still pretty OK at 2B in my book. As far as the likelihood of Kendrick hitting .330-.340 like we all thought a few years ago? If his contact rate continues to climb like it has the past two years it's possible, but we all may just have to settle for Kendrick being an above-average 2B rather than a potential star.
Mark Rzepczynski - It's still unclear whether Rzepczynski will open the season in the Blue Jay rotation, but what's clear (to me, at least) is that he has a significantly higher ceiling than the similarly aged Jesse Litsch, his primary competition for a rotation slot. Rzepczynski is a big lefty with average to slightly above velocity, excellent K rates, and very good GB rates as his positives, with only suspect control falling on the negative side. His 2009 and 2010 MLB lines look very similar....he just happened to allow 20 more hits in 2010 despite an LD% that was 4 ticks lower. Basically, he was lucky in 2009 and unlucky in 2010...that happens. An ERA in the low-4.00's with some solid K numbers is a reasonable expectation for Rzepczynski, with double-digit wins a possibility if he can get into the mid-20's in games started. A very solid sleeper for the back end of your rotation.
Chris Narveson - Narveson is likely only deep-league material, but lefties that have a solid hold on a rotation spot for a decent team and can strike out over 7 1/2 men per nine clearly have their uses. I don't think there's a ton of upside here, as Narveson has always had control and long ball issues, but a near .500 record and a bunch of K's are acceptable at the back of your rotation in NL-only formats.
