Everyone enjoying the first week of spring training? As we get the first taste of games it’s a natural reaction to begin over-analyzing and reacting to the data. While it’s fun to speculate on some of the early results (Domonic Brown 0-12 with 8 K’s, Mat Latos with 4 BB’s in his first outing, etc) as I will also fall victim to doing; it’s important to remember there is still another four weeks before the regular season starts. The early struggles in spring are worth noting and we’ll draw your attention to them, but do your best to keep perspective and use the early data as a reason to dig in deeper or pay more attention, as opposed to letting it change your perceptions wildly.
I’ll be taking in some games live this weekend at the Disney Sports Complex, home to the Atlanta Braves, as I start partaking in some of my live spring training “scouting”. I use the air quotes because I am not a scout, but I do have things I’ll be looking for and doing my best to interact with some of the real scouts at the games. If you’re in the area and attending either of the games feel free to stop by and introduce yourself!
If you don’t get the joys of being at a spring training game this weekend and want a flavor of spring, I’ll do my best to provide my insights via twitter. You can follow me here (http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer) where I’ve been posting my insights into early season ADP and projection work and will continue to post fantasy baseball content all season long.
Enough about me though, you’re here for news on baseball players not fantasy analysts, so let’s dig on the preseason notes! As you may recall, I’ve been covering the Rockies, Reds, and Cubs this spring so we’ll start there and then work our way through some of the other notes from yesterday’s games.
Carlos Silva Fighting, literally, for 5th spot in Cubs rotation
Carlos Silva wasn’t particularly effective in his spring debut as he allowed 3 hits (2 HR’s), 1 walk, and 3 ER’s in one inning of work. He wasn’t helped by a Cubs defense that committed 3 errors in the 1st inning, one of which was by Aramis Ramirez; who appeared to be the target of Silva’s frustration. Early reports were that it was a brawl, now its being reported as more of an argument. Either way its generally irrelevant for fantasy owners. The interesting part is will Silva win a spot in the Cubs rotation and can he reclaim the fantasy relevance he had last season when he went 10-6 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.27 WHIP?
Silva’s primary competition for a rotation spot includes heralded prospect Andrew Cashner, failed prospect Jeff Samardzija, and not much of a prospect left-hander James Russell. Samardzija and Russell look like window-dressing on the competition as neither has had much success starting in the minors. Cashner is the real threat and while he breezed through the minors in just 177 IP, he struggled out of the bullpen last year and would appear to need more seasoning before being ready for a starting role. Throw in the fact that Silva is in the final year of his deal and could be a viable trade candidate and it would appear something unusual (perhaps more unusual than trying to beat your 3B to a pulp) for Silva to not reclaim the starting role. With that in mind, what can we expect from Silva if he does get the role?
A quick look at Silva’s WHIP history shows just how hard projecting him can be, last 6 years: 1.17, 1.54, 1.31, 1.60, 1.71, 1.27. The issue with Silva is he’s never been great at missing bats (career 4.0 K/9) and as a result his performance is left up to quite literally “the bounce of the ball”. Last year was a little bit different though as Silva relied more heavily on his offspeed stuff, specifically his change-up, and started getting more swings and misses. His K Rate jumped to over 6.3 K/9, his contact rate dropped from 88% to 83% and all because he stopped throwing his fastball as much (just 54% of the time, compared to 74% career). An ability to miss some bats (still not elite) coupled with his GB tendencies (48% GB Rate) and his good command (1.91 BB/9) resulted in a solid 3.75 FIP and very real value in NL-only leagues. Can he do it again?
I don’t see why not. Unlike many of Silva’s previously successful campaigns this one wasn’t sustained through luck. His .304 BABIP against and 71% LOB% are right in line with career and league averages. In addition we can point to a definitive difference maker with his change-up (+9 runs above replacement) leading the way. He’s not going to be a star, but as someone who isn’t even getting drafted in most NL-only leagues, I think there’s value here. If the change-up isn’t a one-year fluke, there’s the potential for a 4.00 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 100 K and 12 Win season. That would make him a Top 40 SP in NL Only leagues, from someone not being drafted at all. There’s not much upside, but with little investment required; the downside is minimal as well.
Alfonso Soriano – RED HOT start to spring, sign of a bounce-back?
Soriano’s gotten off to a quick start this spring, going 5-9 with 3 extra base hits including a HR. A former top round fantasy stud, can Soriano return to form?
This one I’m a bit more skeptical on. With aging players there are two ways they can decline: 1) skills and 2) health. With Soriano, we’ve seen evidence of both. Though they’ve each been slow, they are evident. Soriano’s ISO has declined: .283, .261, .252, .182, .238 as has his K Rate which has jumped from the 19-22% range to nearly 25% the last two years. His legs, which used to be a fantasy asset, are no longer with just 14 SB’s in the last two seasons and they’ve actually come back to haunt him a bit as he’s had a few DL trips as a result of leg injuries. As noted by those DL injuries, Soriano’s health has also been in a slow decline. He hasn’t topped 500 AB’s in any of his last 3 seasons and as a result, the counting totals have dipped (averaged just 69 Runs, 70 RBI’s). He can still hit the ball out of the park (24 HR’s per last 3 seasons) but with just a .259 average to go with it, he’s become a one category player.
While many will make the case for Soriano that “if he can stay healthy, he’ll hit 30 HR’s with a run towards 80-80”, I’ll make the case that health is a skill that’s in decline for him as well. The Cubs have four capable OFs on their roster that they’ll likely be rotating around and while those efforts should put Soriano in the best position to stay healthy, it will also sap AB’s from his counting totals. At the end of the year, I’d be surprised if Soriano topped 500 AB’s and throw in the slow, but steady, skills decline and Soriano isn’t a bounce-back candidate I’m investing in. I think the best case for Soriano owners is that he gets off to a strong start, while at his healthiest early on, and becomes a sell-high candidate. But at the cost of a Top 100 pick, that’s an expensive gamble for me.
Jonny Gomes named full-time starting LF
It was less than a week ago in this space that I noted there was some significant risk for NL-only players in relying on Jonny Gomes to replicate his 2010 season, largely because it seemed unlikely he’d earn the full compliment of playing time. With Fred Lewis on-board (career .348 wOBA vs. RHP, .296 wOBA vs. LHP), Gomes (career .378 wOBA vs. LHP, .321 wOBA vs. RHP) figured to have a perfect platoon partner on hand. Throw in Lewis’ league average defense in LF, compared to Gomes Barnum & Bailey defense in LF, it would appear to be a natural solution to a lot of the Reds LF weaknesses. Unfortunately for this guy, assuming logical decision-making from Dusty Baker (he of the famous “walks clog the bases quote”) appears to have ended up making a donkey out of me.
Baker specifically noted there wouldn’t be a platoon, which would appear to guarantee Gomes a very long leash in LF and allow him another run at a 450+ AB season. I’m still concerned that Baker eventually figures out a platoon makes sense, but for now there’s more reason to draft Gomes with confidence and expect another run at a 20 HR season with 70+ Runs and RBI’s.
Is Drew Stubbs for real?
It might seem like a bit of a loaded question after Stubbs has now posted consecutive seasons of nearly identical production (.762 OPS in ’09, .773 OPS in ’10), but with Stubbs early season ADP data going outside the Top 150, it feels like I should touch on it.
The case against Stubbs:
He only posted a .401 Slugging % in his minor league career, while hitting 28 HR’s in over 1500 minor league AB’s. Now all of the sudden he’s a 25 HR candidate? In addition, his 32.7% K Rate makes him an extremely risky asset.
My case for Stubbs:
He appears to have been a late-bloomer with the power. The HR totals posted last year weren’t a result of an abnormally high HR/FB Rate (it was actually lower than his 2009 major league HR/FB Rate), his extra-base-hit rate was up across the board. Not to mention we now have nearly 700 AB’s for Stubbs and the production has been pretty consistent, as noted above. The high K Rate will make him a risk, but its really not that much different than Chris B. Young, who is going 60 spots higher. With an ADP between the 12th and 15th rounds, its hard to see much risk in a player that posted a 20-30 season last year at age 25.
Jason Hammel – the perpetual tease
I’m not sure there is a pitcher in MLB who has as big of disparity in their perception between casual fans (“Who the bleep is Jason Hammel?”) and saber-metric friendly fans (“Once the production starts matching the indicators, he’ll be a solid mid-rotation contributor”). After consecutive seasons in which Hammel’s ERA (4.33/4.81) has been significantly higher than his FIP (3.71/3.70), the question has now become “if” moreso than “when” the production will catch up.
It’s easy to say that Hammel’s just been “unlucky” and that there will be reversion to the mean, but sometimes its just not the case. When I see players with consistently large discrepancies between peripherals and indicators, I like to dig in a bit more. With hitters I’ll turn to batted ball data and see if the line drive rates are adding up. With pitchers, there are usually two culprits that can exaggerate the production relative to the performance: 1) HR’s allowed and 2) ineffectiveness out of the stretch. With Hammel his HR Rates aren’t much to be concerned with, just 1.04 HR/9 for his career with a 10.5% HR/FB Rate. Those are pretty normal. But the stretch, well that’s been a bit of a problem.
Hammel Career:
w/men on – 6.13 K/9, 3.42 BB/9, 44.4% GB Rate, xFIP – 4.54
w/bases empty – 7.04 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 46.2% GB Rate, xFIP – 4.01
All the peripherals have consistently been worse while pitching out of the stretch. If you take it a step further and look at the year-by-year data, it’s the same thing. Every single year, Hammel has been significantly worse out of the strech. It’s not just the K, BB, and GB Rates. If you look at Hammel’s career slugging % allowed with men-on-base – .477, with the bases empty - .433. Quite simply, he’s a far worse pitcher out of the stretch and until he can correct this aspect of his game, he’s going to continue to be a tease to the saber-metric and fantasy communities.
If Aaron Cook is out, who starts? Does it matter?
We’re seeing a lot of starting pitchers get scratched from scheduled starts early in the preseason and most of these aren’t a concern, but Aaron Cook’s shoulder problems appear a bit more serious. The Rockies have been consistently worried about the strength of his shoulder and have indicated he’s still a ways away from getting in a live game situation. If Cook isn’t able to go, who will the Rockies turn to?
The primary candidates are Esmil Rogers and Felipe Paulino. Rogers threw two solid innings in his debut while Paulino has yet to see the mound. Both have had disappointing starts to their MLB careers, but each has some qualities that make them intriguing. Paulino has always been able to get the strikeout, but his lack of command (minor league 4.4 BB/9, major league 3.9 BB/9), coupled with some FB tendencies (40%) makes him a risky candidate, especially in unforgiving Coors Field. Rogers to me is a little more interesting. He’s been in the Rockies organization throughout his career and was promoted pretty aggressively. It makes me believe he has the upper hand if needed already. Take a look at the peripherals he’s posted in the majors: 8.17 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, 52.3% GB Rate and it looks remarkably similar to Ubaldo Jimenez – 8.10 K/9, 3.92 BB/9, 51.2% GB Rate.
The difference has been in the ability to limit Line Drives. Jimenez has kept hitters to an 18% LD Rate, while Rogers has been ripped to the tune of a 21.4% LD Rate. Now, Rogers isn’t Jimenez (he doesn’t throw 100), and his career minor league numbers suggest that issue with line drives has always haunted him (4.59 ERA, 1.40 WHIP), but IF there’s a guy to bet on in that mix, I think its Rogers. For now, it’s just worth stashing away as an idea as Rogers isn’t even draftable in NL-only formats. IF Cook is out though and Rogers shows something early in the season, remember this blurb as a reason to think it could last. Ultimately, neither Paulino or Rogers look like viable rotation candidates, but Rogers peripherals suggest some reason to buy into a hot start.
Juan Miranda (1B - ARZ) – Miranda slugged a two-run HR on Wednesday and took two walks. It was just his 2nd hit in 8 AB’s this spring, but he’s made good contact early on and the HR yesterday lets him keep pace with Russell Branyan for the 1B role. David Regan has touched heavily on DBacks GM Kevin Towers’ infatuation with Miranda and his likelihood at walking away with considerable playing time at 1B. Though I believe Russell Branyan remains the obvious option for the DBacks, having a GM in your corner probably puts Miranda in the driver’s seat. It’s a position battle we’ll continue to monitor all spring. Through the first few games it appears even.
Casey McGehee (3B - MIL) – McGehee knocked out 2 HR’s in a 3-3 effort on Thursday against the Cubs. The former Cubs farm-hand has established himself as a more than capable starting 3B at the major league level after posting consecutive seasons with an OPS above .800. He showed some mild signs for concern last year as his Chase Rate (pitches swung outside the zone) increased to nearly 30% and his LD Rate collapsed from 21.6% to 16.9%, but thanks to little competition for playing time and a strong spot in the batting order he improved his fantasy totals to .285-70-23-104-1. I still think the late-bloomer has some risk to him, but with an ADP outside the Top 100, it appears fantasy owners are too heavily discounting McGehee’s potential. Even with the regression in his peripherals last season, McGehee was extremely consistent (1st half OPS - .796, 2nd half OPS - .800). With a good Brewers lineup and a great spot in the lineup, McGehee looks like a good bet for another 95+ RBI season.
David Murphy (OF - TEX) – Murphy hit a 3-run HR off Dan Haren and picked up another hit in his 2nd AB against the Angels on Wednesday. Murphy’s been perhaps the least talked about “loser” in the Michael Young drama. He showed really nice growth in his contact rate last season, improving to over 87%, while maintaining his solid gap power and adding the SB threat to his game. He posted a 12-14 HR-SB line in 419 AB’s and if he could somehow get 550 AB’s, would be a legitimate 20-20 candidate. In AL-only leagues he’s someone I want, as the injury history of Hamilton-Cruz, coupled with the potential of a Michael Young trade keeps Murphy as a guy likely to find 350-400 AB’s, but in mixed leagues he’s just a name to keep in mind down the road. He can produce if he gets the PT, unfortunately early in the season he’s not in line for it.
Michael Pineda (SP - SEA) – After the influx of prospects in the last two years, the upper minor leagues are a bit more barren this year with potential impact prospects. But if there is one potential pitching call-up to remember this year, its Michael Pineda. Pineda emerged last season as a top pitching prospect after posting a combined 9.9 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 over 139 minor league innings at AA and AAA. His peripherals even showed improvement in his 62 AAA innings in which he blew away the competition with an 11.0 K/9. He’s the future alongside Felix Hernandez in Seattle and while he’s unlikely to break with the club right out of spring, a call-up this season appears very likely. He was impressive yesterday with 2 perfect innings against the Diamondbacks.
Aaron Harang (SP - SD) – Harang cruised through two perfect innings against the Rockies in his spring debut on Wednesday. After seeing PETCO make guys like Jon Garland, Clayton Richard, and Wade LeBlanc viable at different points last year, I’m willing to gamble on Aaron Harang. Harang hasn’t been the same since an extended relief appearance a few years back, happened to take place in San Diego, but his peripherals have been OK. His K Rate has dropped below 7 and his BB Rate climbed above 3, but there are some reasons for optimism. He actually improved his chase rate last season and his FB velocity has recovered back above 90 mph again. In addition, his skill-set was one not suited for Great American Ballpark as his consistent 40+% FB Rate is more suited for the move to PETCO. There are enough warts on Harang’s resume, that he’s not a must-have type of gamble, but there’s also enough reason for optimism (see Garland, Richard, LeBlanc) that he’s worth a late round gamble to see if PETCO’s magical powers can work for Harang’s FB tendencies.
AJ Burnett (SP - NYY) – It was a nice start to the spring for AJ Burnett as he tossed two scoreless innings, didn’t walk a batter and recorded 5 ground outs. The demise of Burnett’s K Rate (from above 8.5 to below 7 in just 1 season) continued a 3 year decline in that category, and coincided with a 1 mph dip in fastball velocity. With peripherals trending in the wrong direction, Burnett doesn’t even look worthy of a draft selection in traditional mixed leagues. At this point, even a tremendous spring wouldn’t get me to invest in Burnett, whose only form of consistent value was through K’s, which he lost in 2010.
Josh Johnson (SP - FLA) – Johnson didn’t do much to dispel any concerns over the health of his shoulder in his first spring start. Johnson allowed 4 ER’s on 5 hits and 1 walk in just 1 2/3 innings against the Nationals. Johnson finished last season on the DL with shoulder inflammation and has already had tommy john surgery on his elbow. His 209 innings in 2009 was 50 more IP than any season in his career and after backing that up with a limp to the finish line on his 183 IP last season, I’m wondering if his arm simply isn’t built to handle the big workload. Continue to monitor him as the spring goes on, but he’s someone I’m passing on in early drafts until I see something that gives me more confidence in his health.
Matt Wieters (C - BAL) – I noted on twitter two weeks ago when I was running through my catcher notes that investing in Wieters this season was “betting on the come”. There simply wasn’t any evidence in his first two big league seasons that a breakout was coming in year 3. Wieters showed only mild improvements in his K and BB Rates last season, while his ISO stayed the same. Meanwhile his LD Rate dropped to under 16%, his chase rate increased to over 30%, and his GB Rate rose to 46%. None of those peripherals indicate a budding star. However, there is the great minor league track record and the scouts view that he’ll eventually figure it out. He went 3-4 on Wednesday and is now 5-7 to start the Spring with 3 RBI’s. All the small sample caveats apply here and while I’m not optimistic it all suddenly comes together for Wieters this year, you can bet I’ll be watching this spring. If the signs are there, improved contact rates, driving the ball more consistently, I’ll be more inclined to jump in. For now, I’d much prefer Jorge Posada or Carlos Santana who are both going right around where Wieters is.
Jason Heyward (OF - ATL) – Heyward took Wednesday off due to a sore groin. It’s not considered significant and with all there is to be excited about Heyward, I feel dirty even mentioning this… but it seems like he deals with an inordinate amount of bumps and bruises for a 20-21 year old. Heyward missed 20 games last season and missed about the same in the 2009 minor league season. Only a few days into spring training and we’re already seeing some soreness issues. I don’t want to make too big of a deal on this as Heyward’s skills are so exciting that there is big time growth potential, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see another 140 game season as opposed to a 150+ game season. It just seems like his body at 20-21 years old may be more fragile than fantasy owners would like. It’s not making me shy away from Heyward, but it is on my mind.
Brandon Morrow (SP - TOR) – Morrow struck out 4 over 3 scoreless innings in his spring debut against the Rays. Most importantly for me, Morrow did not walk a batter. His skill-set is amongst the best in the game if he can consistently find the plate. He got the BB/9 down to 3.5 over his last 10 starts and his 2nd half numbers took off: 3.69 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 67 K’s in 46 1/3 IP. I’m a big believer in Morrow for this coming year. While there may be some bumps in the road with the command and he carries a legitimate WHIP risk, I think the upside warrants his current 125th overall ADP.
Matt Cain (SP - SF) – Cain was scratched from his start on Wednesday with what the Giants are calling elbow inflammation. He’ll skip another start as he tries to get the inflammation under control. It’s considered a minor thing for now, and while Cain did have a 30+ IP jump last season when you include the post-season IP, he didn’t appear to be a significant injury risk. We’ll continue to monitor it as the spring goes, but while it’s not considered serious, anything with the elbow will immediately make owners cringe.
