Preseason Fantistics Analysis - Wednesday, March 30, 2011
We’re only one day away from Opening Day. At this point, you probably already had your fantasy draft and just want to get the season started. We do too. For today’s preseason look at the featured teams, let’s dive into the overall depth charts and see how each team is shaping up for the first week of the season.
New York Yankees
The Rotation
The Yankees are always good for some drama in March. Whether its battles at positions or with management, they never leave us without something to write about. The biggest story of the spring was the starting rotation and the past week has finally yielded some answers. CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, and AJ Burnett are the obvious #1-3 SP. Ivan Nova was penciled into the #4 slot from the start, but it was written heavy with a No. 2 pencil. No surprises there. The final spot came down to Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia. Colon proved he still had plenty of gas in the tank, but Garcia ultimately won the coveted #5 spot. The Yankees have two legit fantasy starters in CC and Hughes for mixed leaguers and AJ Burnett could be a late round sleeper (but he certainly makes me nervous). Nova has plenty of upside, but may be still a year away from putting it together. While Garcia posted double-digit wins in 2010, he’s only good for a spot start here and there and certainly not worth enough to warrant a roster spot starting on March 31st.
The Lineup
Your Opening Day lineup will look something like this:
1) Brett Gardner (CF)
2) Derek Jeter (SS)
3) Mark Teixeira (1B)
4) Alex Rodriguez (3B)
5) Robinson Cano (2B)
6) Nick Swisher (RF)
7) Jorge Posada (DH)
8) Andruw Jones (LF)
9) Russell Martin (C)
The most obvious change to this lineup will be eventual return of Curtis Granderson. The bench isn’t deep enough for any other significant changes other than the occasional day off at catcher.
Things to Watch
1) Alex Rodriguez had a tremendous spring and looks like he has something to prove (like, he can hit 40+ naturally. He could put up some monstrous numbers.
2) How will Derek Jeter’s chase for his 3,000th hit affect his performance? We’ve seen many players slump prior to big milestones, including Jeter’s most recent slump while chasing the milestone of passing Lou Gehrig on the Yankee all-time hit list.
3) Can AJ Burnett bounce back from his dreadful 2010 season?
4) Will a full season of Posada at DH keep him fresher deeper into the season and will we see a bounceback in his offensive numbers?
Milwaukee Brewers
The Rotation
The biggest story from the spring was Zack Greinke’s rib injury suffered while playing preseason basketball. Greinke should be out for about a month before returning to the top of the rotation. In the meantime, the rotation of 4 will be Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf, and Chris Narveson. With off-days scattered throughout the first two weeks of the season, the Brewers can get away with using their #5 (probably Marco Estrada but possibly Sergio Mitre) only once in the first few weeks of the season. From a fantasy perspective, Gallardo is obviously the most valuable with Marcum offering potential to post decent W and K numbers if he can improve his numbers against righties.
The Lineup
The Opening Day lineup should look something like this:
1) Rickie Weeks (2B)
2) Carlos Gomez (CF)
3) Ryan Braun (LF)
4) Prince Fielder (1B)
5) Casey McGehee (3B)
6) Mark Kotsay (RF)
7) Yuniesky Betancourt (SS)
8) George Kottaras (C)
9) PITCHER
The Brewers recently traded for Nyjer Morgan, which could jeopardize some of Carlos Gomez’s playing time. Mark Kotsay is a fill-in for Corey Hart while he starts the season on the DL with a strained oblique. And George Kottaras will fill-in as backup with Jonathan Lucroy on the DL with a broken finger).
Things to Watch
1) Can Rickie Weeks put together a second straight healthy season?
2) Free agency looms over Prince Fielder - will he be wearing a Brewers uniform at the end of the season?
3) How will Zach Greinke bounce back from his rib injury and how will the move to the NL affect his overall fantasy value?
4) Will Jon Axford remain dominant and close 35-40 or will he slump in his sophomore year?
Chicago White Sox
The Rotation
The rotation is anchored by Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, and John Danks. With Jake Peavy still recovering from shoulder surgery, that leaves Edwin Jackson as the #4 and Phil Humber as the #5. No real surprises here as the White Sox wait patiently to see if Peavy will be able to bounceback and be the old Jake Peavy (or at least good enough to be a solid end of the rotation starter). The biggest fantasy gamble will also be Peavy.
The Lineup
Pretty straightforward and no surprises:
1) Juan Pierre (LF)
2) Gordon Beckham (2B)
3) Adam Dunn (DH)
4) Paul Konerko (1B)
5) Alex Rios (CF)
6) Carlos Quentin (RF)
7) Alexei Ramirez (SS)
8) AJ Pierzynski (C)
9) Brent Morel (3B)
Things to Watch
1) How will the move to permanent DH and to the American League affect Adam Dunn? Will moving to U.S. Cellular, one of the friendliest hitter parks in the league, have a big impact on his numbers?
2) Jake Peavy - healthy or not?
3) Will Matt Thornton be the closer all season or will a frustrated Ozzie have a quick trigger and replace him with the youngster Chris Sale?
4) Can Gordon Beckham build off his 2nd half of 2010 and live up to his potential at the plate?
1. Stephen Drew (SS - Diamondbacks) - Manager Kirk Gibson indicated that Stephen Drew would not be heading to the DL, but he probably also won’t be ready for Opening Day. He has a silght abdominal strain, but nothing serious as the MRI tests came back negative. It looks like backup Tony Abreu will start for at least the first game or two at SS, but it doesn’t sound like Drew will be kept out of action for too long. Given the lack of SS depth this season, Drew creeps into that Top-5 at his position and can be grabbed at a value in middle rounds. He has 20 HR potential and could swipe you 10 bags to go along with it.
2. Rich Harden (SP - A’s) - I doubt we will ever see Rich Harden healthy. But the good news is he threw his first bullpen session in 6 weeks after suffering a lat muscle strain under his pitching shoulder. He’ll have a few more bullpen sessions before being considered game-ready. At only 29 years old, Harden has had a lifetime of doctor visits in a very short time. A team will always try to recapture the potential that Harden possesses and the A’s are the latest to tackle the project. AL-only consideration only at this point, but I always keep him on a watch list just in case this is the season he can stay healthy and put it all together. Early indications are we’ll be making the same post this time in 2012.
3. Gio Gonazalez (SP - A’s) - Gio Gonzalez still doesn’t get the love I think he deserves. If I put you on the spot, would you have guessed he recorded 170 K’s and 15 Wins? The A’s #3 SP, Gio is just 25 and is really in his 2nd full year (he recorded about 130 IP over the first two years of service). One thing to watch for early with Gonzalez is his walks and control. His BB/9 was about 4.1 last year with a LOB% of 78.1%, a significant increase from 2009 of 67.8%. There may have been some luck there, but I still like Gio has a late round sleeper in mixed leagues.
4. Brian Fuentes (RP - A’s) - With Bailey on the DL (at least for a short time) to start the season, Fuentes was considered to be the favorite to get save opportunities. After all, he does have a fair amount of closer experience under his belt with 187 career saves. But manager Bob Geren indicated yesterday that Craig Breslow may be in consideration for the 9th inning as well. Add Grant Balfour and Michael Wuertz to the party and you’ll be lucky to squeeze a save or two out of Fuentes before Bailey returns.
5. Jake McGee (RP - Rays) - Jake McGee was the most outspoken about his candidacy to close in Tampa Bay during spring training, but we’re staring right at a committee of closers heading into Opening Day. Don’t place too much stock in McGee as guys like Kyle Farnsworth (yes, that Kyle Farnsworth), Joel Peralta, and JP Howell could also see a look in the 9th inning from Joe Maddon. I think McGee has the greatest potential to earn the position outright over the long season, but probably not worth the roster spot in mixed leagues at this point.
6. Kendrys Morales (1B - Angels) - Morales was cleared to resume baseball activities as he continues his road back from the most dangerous walk-off HR in history. He’ll certainly begin the season on the DL and will probably be in extended spring training for at least a few weeks. My guess is an early May return for Morales. He certainly has the potential to be an elite 1B after finishing 5th in MVP voting in 2009, but don’t forget that we have about 50 games of 2010 production to analyze as well. Prior to his season-ending injury, Morales was posting an .833 OPS (down from 2009 of .924), a 17.5 AB/HR (up from 2009 of 16.6), a huge drop in XBH% from 12.7% to 7.6%, and BB% from 7.4% to 5.7%. Don’t reach for Morales thinking you’re getting another 30+ HR season out of him. His K/BB of about 2.5 should keep him honest and hovering in the 20-25 HR range. Still not a bad guy to stash on the DL if he starts slipping in drafts, but he needs to be at the right value.
7. Matt Garza (SP - Cubs) - I try my best to ignore spring training stats, but they keep calling my name like leftover pizza in the fridge. Garza has really struggled this spring, posting a 10.38 ERA in 7 games with a .372 opposing avg, 2.26 WHIP, and 3 HR allowed in 21.2 IP. His move the NL with the Cubs isn’t sitting well with me. He’s primarily a flyball pitcher moving from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park. We have seen a continuous drop in his GB/FB rate over the last four years of 0.90, 0.88, 0.83, and 0.71. That has led to an increase in HR% during the same time frame of 2.2%, 2.5%, 2.9%, and 3.3%. We might see an immediate league-switch impact with Garza that could benefit owners, but I smell a “sell-high” situation coming with him around early June.
8. Brian Wilson (RP - Giants) - Wilson will start the season on the DL with an oblique injury, but its retro so he becomes available as early as April 6th. Add the Giants to a growing list of teams choosing to go with a committee situation while their star closer is injured. Sergio Romo is the most likely candidate to get a majority of the saves (he’s one of the best setup men in baseball), but Javier Lopez and even Jeremy Affeldt could save an opportunity or two.
9. Justin Masterson (SP - Indians) - Masterson is a guy that could raise a fantasy eyebrow or two this season. The former Red Sox prospect is now easily the #3 SP for the Indians. He had a solid spring, recording 23 K’s in 21.2 IP with just 6 BB. He finished 2010 strong too with 7 QS in his last 14 outings, a 2.32 K/BB, .258 OAVG, 3.84 ERA, and a 1.32 WHIP. The 26 year old could be turning the corner and is certainly worth the gamble in AL-only leagues and needs to be on watch lists for mixed leagues through the first month of the season.
10. Drew Stubbs (OF - Reds) - Stubbs has already been a hot fantasy topic this season. We have already covered his potential for 25/25 + season after his 22/30 2010 campaign. The good news is that Dusty Baker officially gave Stubbs some stability yesterday, calling him their official leadoff hitter heading into Opening day. Hopefully he’ll bear down and increase his OBP from the .329 mark last year.
Follow me on Twitter all season: @jribando
