There Is Value In Houston’s Rotation, Part Deux
I wrote about Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers in Saturday’s article, so now let’s focus on Bud Norris and J.A. Happ today.
First, did you know Bud Norris’ real name is David Stefan Norris? I didn’t either. I really want to attend an Astros game this year and start yelling “David Stefan” at Norris during warm-ups just to see how he reacts. Anyways, Norris has always been a high strikeout pitcher, consistently in the 8.50-11.00 range in the minors. He’s translated that high strikeout ability to the big league level, owning a 9.11 K/9 in 209 innings. The problem for Norris is his control. While he posted a manageable 3.7 BB/9 in the minors, that number jumped to 4.51 during his first full season with the Astros in ’10. Combining the high strikeout totals with high walk totals meant Norris didn’t last long in many of his starts (he completed seven innings just six times in 27 starts). However, looking closer at Norris’ 2010 numbers reveals a low strand rate (67%) and an FIP (4.17) that’s much more respectable than his actual ERA (4.92). Norris also increased his GB% from 37% during his first go-round in the majors in 2009 to 43% in ’10. Based off these indicators, I like Norris as a sleeper in 2011 who can provide a ton of strikeouts at the back end of your fantasy team’s rotation.
As much as I like Norris, I’m not a big fan of relying on J.A. Happ to be much of a fantasy contributor in 2011. The LHP recorded a 2.93 ERA in 166 innings in 2009 but got very lucky as he enjoyed an 85% strand rate and his FIP was 4.33. Last season, Happ improved his K/9 to 7.21 but also walked nearly five batters per game (4.84 BB/9) and benefited from an unsustainable 77% strand rate. And, once again, his ERA (3.40) was drastically lower than his FIP (4.32). I just don’t believe Happ can continue to post weak peripheral numbers and maintain a sub 4.00 ERA. If given a choice between these two pitchers, I’d take Norris every time.
Chris Johnson And His .387 BABIP At The Hot Corner
At first glance, you might think Chris Johnson has the potential to have a breakout season in 2011. Judging by his .308/.337/.481 slash line and 11 HRs in 362 PAs in 2010, along with his age (26), it appears he might be a decent option at the hot corner. However, delving deeper into the numbers tells a different story. Johnson enjoyed an incredibly unsustainable .387 BABIP last year and posted a hideous 0.16 EYE, which included a 4% walk rate. Johnson also swung at 43% of pitches thrown outside the strike zone and his .173 ISO isn’t all that impressive. If the BABIP regresses as we’d expect, Johnson may have trouble posting an OBP above .310 and his BA will likely drop well under the .300 line. The Astros’ lineup likely won’t help Johnson’s run and RBI totals, either. Overall, don’t overvalue Johnson based on his numbers from 2010.
The Tribe’s Rotation – At Least It’s Better Than Kansas City’s
The Indians are trotting out the following five-man rotation to start the season: Fausto Carmona, Justin Masterson, Carlos Carrasco, Josh Tomlin and Mitch Talbot. Today, I’d like to focus on the most likely guys to provide your team with fantasy value – Carmona, Masterson and Carrasco.
By now, you should know Carmona’s game – induce a ton of GBs and limit the free passes. Last season, Carmona maintained an excellent 55% GB% while lowering his BB/9 from 5.03 in ’09 to just 3.08. He also managed to slash his HR/9 from 1.15 in ’09 to 0.73. By combining these improvements, Carmon lowered his ERA and FIP from 6.32/5.36 to just 3.77/4.11 and became fantasy relevant once again. With a sub-6.00 K/9 rate, Carmona will never provide your team with a ton of strikeouts but he has value as an innings-eater.
Masterson represents more upside than Carmona but also more risk. He relies on GBs even more so than Carmona, tallying a 60% GB% in ’10 to go along with a better strikeout of 7.00 K/9. Masterson also was a bit unlucky last year as his strand rate was just 66% and his ERA (4.70) was much higher than his FIP (3.93). However, Masterson continues to struggle with consistency as he strung together more than two quality starts in a row just once all season in late August and early September before the Tribe moved him to the bullpen to limit innings. Wait and see if he can put it together before adding him to your team’s roster in ’11.
Finally, I’m intrigued by Carlos Carrasco this season. In 44 innings in 2010, Carrasco held his own at the big league level, posting a 7.66 K/9, 2.82 BB/9 and 3.83 ERA. He managed to record a 56% GB% while keeping his FIP right around the 4.00 mark. Perhaps most encouraging, Carrasco’s major league numbers look very similar to his AAA numbers in ’10 when he posted a 7.96 K/9, 2.75 BB/9 and 3.65 ERA. The young RHP has value in keeper leagues, but also has an outside shot at making a little noise in fantasy leagues this season.
Chooooooooooooooo!
While the Tribe’s other outfielders such as Austin Kearns, Travis Buck (gross) and Michael Brantley likely won’t have much fantasy value, Shin-Soo Choo is poised for another excellent year. The player with the most fantasy value on the Indians in 2011, Choo has been consistent the past two seasons, posting 20+ HRs, 85+ runs, 85+ RBI and 20+ steals to go along with an .880 OPS. Additionally, Choo improved his BB% to 13% in ’10 while lowering his K% to 21%. He hits line drives at a 20% clip and should benefit a bit from a slightly improved Cleveland lineup. Choo turns 29 in mid-summer so there’s no reason to think he won’t post similar numbers, if not better, in 2011. It’s hard to find players who can fill out all five traditional offensive categories, so Choo is definitely a valuable commodity.
Behind The Dish: The Skinniest Molina Brother
As the catcher position gets deeper in fantasy leagues, Yadier Molina continues to lose value. While he managed to hit .302 and .293 in 2008 and 2009, respectively, Molina has hit just six to eight HRs each of the past six seasons and has reached 60 RBI just once. Even during his best season (2009), Molina managed just a .383 SLG% and 0.89 ISO. Additionally, with the acquisition of capable backup Gerald Laird, the Cardinals and manager Tony LaRussa may elect to give Molina few more days off this season. I expect Molina’s .262 BA to bounce back to the .280-.290 range as he experienced an uncharacteristic decrease in his BABIP last season. Still, Molina’s ceiling is low and, based off the consistency of his numbers during the past six seasons, you know what to expect from the skinniest of baseball’s first family of catching brothers.
Jake Westbrook And Jaime Garcia – Two SPs I Don’t Like Much In 2011
In 2010, Jake Westbrook did his best, um, Jake Westbrook impression by striking out fewer than six batters per game, inducing a ton of GBs (56% GB%) and posting an ERA between the 4.10 and 4.50 marks. Much like Maryland with crab cakes and football, this is what Jake Westbrook does. He’s not going to significantly outperform these numbers this season, and considering he’s now 33, the RHP is much more likely to regress. There are many, many pitchers I’d consider before adding Westbrook to my fantasy team in 2011. You probably already knew this and weren’t going to add Westbrook, but I just wanted to make sure we’re all on the same page.
As for Garcia, there are lots of reasons to not believe he’ll be able to repeat his 2010 campaign when he recorded a 2.70 ERA and finished 13-8 on the season. Ready? Ok, first he enjoyed an unsustainable .292 BABIP. Second, he allowed just 0.50 HR/9. Third, his 3.41 FIP was 71 points higher than his actual ERA. Fourth, after posting a 2.17 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in the first half, Garcia regressed to a 3.53 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in the second half. Fifth, his K/BB was barely above 2.00 in ’10 and, if he regresses as expected, this indicator could slip under 2.00 pretty easily in 2011. Finally, he enjoyed a 75% strand rate which isn’t likely happening again this season. All told, Garcia should see his ERA fall back above 3.50 this year and is not going to be nearly as effective as he was in 2010. Value accordingly.
Jose Lopez – From 2009 to 2010, Jose Lopez went from a guy who didn’t walk but could hit HRs to a guy who didn’t walk and couldn’t hit HRs, which made him a worthless fantasy baseball second baseman. Lopez cranked 25 HRs and drove in 96 in ’09 while recording a .191 ISO despite a 3.7% walk rate. However, last season, Lopez’s ISO plummeted to just .099 and his BABIP fell to .254. The result was an abysmal .239/.270(!)/.339(!!) slash line and just 10 HRs. While a move to Coors Field certainly indicates a bounce back season might be in line for Lopez’s power numbers, it’s hard to rely on a player who has never shown patience and owns just one season with more than 20 HRs. I’d take a pass, even for a bench spot on your team.
Seth Smith – To put it bluntly, there’s a chance I can hit LH pitching better than Seth Smith. The Rockies’ outfielder posted solid numbers versus RHP in 2010, hitting 17 HRs and recording an .848 OPS. However, when he faced a lefty, Smith wilted to the tune of 0 HR and a .393 OPS in 52 ABs. That severe split difference cost Smith ABs versus lefties down the stretch, which took a toll on the outfielder’s overall value. This season, manager Jim Tracy has indicated Smith will see regular ABs and shift between hitting in the No. 2 and No. 7 spots in Colorado’s lineup. If Smith can prove he’s better against LHP this season, he’s definitely capable of 20-25 HRs and a spot on your fantasy team’s bench.
Jason Bay – What was more unlikely: VCU and Butler in the NCAA Final Four or Jason Bay hitting 30 fewer HRs from 2009 to 2010? While you may pick the former choice, it was still a pretty big surprise to witness Bay struggle as much as he did in 2010. Sure, few expected him to hit another 36 HRs, but to go from a .269 ISO to a .144 mark while also experiencing a 135-point drop in SLG% is a bit crazy. Considering Bay owns a career 16% HR/FB and he posted just a 5% mark in ’10, we should see some serious regression in Bay’s HR totals. I’m not predicting 30 HRs again, but the outfielder should finish comfortably in the mid-20 HR range while driving in 90. Bay is likely undervalued in your league based off last year’s stats so I’d target him as a sleeper, especially in NL-only or deep leagues.
Yunel Escobar – Usually when a player posts a .062 ISO and .318 SLG%, he’s ignored in the fantasy baseball world. But when that player plays SS, especially in a season where the position is particularly thin, we have to at least consider the potential value he might be able to provide if the breaks go his way. As a 26-year old, Yunel Escobar posted a solid .299/.377/.436 slash line with 14 HRs and 89 runs. But last season, Escobar hit a mere four HRs and struggled to a .256/.337/.318 line. He experienced an unlucky .282 BABIP in ’10, but also hurt himself by swinging at, and connecting with, more pitches outside the strike zone than ever before. At just 28, there’s hope Escobar can bounce back this season but he’s going to have to improve his pitch selection. So far this spring, he’s batting .414 and the Blue Jays have indicated he may hit as high as the No. 2 spot in the lineup, which would certainly improve his value.
Alfonso Soriano – Remember when Alfonso Soriano clubbed 46 HRs and stole 41 bases? Yeah, I don’t either, but he did way back in 2006 for the Nationals. After a solid 33 HR/97 RBI/19 steal performance in 2007, Soriano has drastically declined during the past three seasons. He hasn’t surpassed 30 HRs, 77 runs, 80 RBI or 20 steals since ’07, many times not coming close to any of those marks. If you’re an optimist, you can say that after a tough 2009, Soriano improved his ISO from .182 back to a solid .238 mark while boosting his OPS by 92 points. However, that still leaves us with a .258 BA and just 24 HRs, 79 RBI and five steals. He turned 35 in January and I don’t expect numbers much better than his 2010 marks, making the once great hitter just a No. 3 OF on your team, at best.
Daric Barton – If your league uses OBP, keep reading. If your league uses BA, then you can skip to the next player blurb. Daric Barton doesn’t hit for much power (career .139 ISO) nor will he drive in a lot of runs with the Oakland offense around him. But what he does do well is take a walk. Last season, Barton owned a 16% walk rate and a .393 OBP while improving his LD% to 21.5%. However, he also hit 6% more infield pop-ups, 8% more groundballs and his FB% dropped by 9%. All told, Barton was unable to consistently elevate his balls in play which contributed to fewer extra base hits and a disappointing .405 SLG%. He has a bit of value in deep leagues using OBP but otherwise there’s no reason to add the first baseman to your roster.
Mark Reynolds – Bankers, the economy and Mark Reynolds all had a tough 2010. Reynolds witnessed his BABIP drop from .338 to .257, which pushed his BA below the Mendoza line at .198. While he managed to smash 32 HRs, he also increased his K% to 42%, which is actually pretty impressive considering he struck out in 39% of ABs in 2009. Reynolds’ runs and RBI plummeted as did his ISO, OBP and SLG%. All told, Reynolds was so bad the Diamondbacks shipped him to Baltimore, which is a mean thing to do to a baseball player. The good news is that, assuming the BABIP regresses, Reynolds should rebound to hit in the .220s-.230s along with another 35 HRs, giving his fantasy owners more value than a season ago.
Chase Utley – “There’s no timetable for my return.” That sums up Chase Utley’s health with Opening Day just three days away. The Phillies’ second baseman, who’s dealing with patellar tendinitis, said on Monday that he is hoping to return by the All-Star break but nothing’s guaranteed at this point. If you took a chance on Utley in your draft or auction, it’s likely going to be quite some time before you see him in your lineup. Utley’s also coming off a down year where he hit just 16 HRs and drove in 65 while his ISO dropped to meager .169. There’s just too much risk at this point for you to take a chance on the All-Star.
Armando Galarraga – A riveting spring training battle came to an end Monday when the Diamondbacks announced that Armando Galarraga had won the No. 5 spot in the rotation with Aaron Heilman shifting to the bullpen. Galarraga didn’t exactly ‘wow’ the Arizona coaches as he posted a 7.36 ERA in spring training and struck out only 12 batters in 22 innings of work. Last season, the former Tiger tossed 144 innings and posted an incredibly low 4.61 K/9 to go along with a 5.09 FIP and 4.49 ERA. Worse, in 475 career innings, Galarraga owns a hideous 1.42 HR/9 and 1.62 K/BB meaning the odds are strongly against the righty holding a rotation spot all season.
Kila Ka’aihue – Sleeper alert! After reading that Kila Ka’aihue clubbed his 7th HR of spring training Monday, I have to admit, I’m pretty pleased that I acquired the Hawaiian in an offseason trade in my fantasy league. Slated as Kansas City’s everyday first baseman and cleanup hitter, Ka’aihue could be a nice sleeper option that hits 25 HRs and drives in 80. He struggled in 206 PAs in 2010 to the tune of a .217/.307/.394 line. However, Ka’aihue dealt with a .231 BABIP, showed good patience by walking in 12% of his ABs and managed a solid 11% HR/FB mark. Like most, I don’t read too much into spring training stats but the fact that Ka’aihue owns a 1.122 OPS and 49 total bases in just 49 ABs definitely catches my attention.
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