There Is Value In Houston's Rotation
The strength of this year’s Houston Astros team lies in the starting rotation which features Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Myers, J.A. Happ and Bud Norris. I’ll talk about Rodriguez and Myers today and leave Happ and Norris for my next article on Tuesday.
I mentioned this earlier in the week on Twitter but Rodriguez quietly put together one of the best second half pitching performances in the majors last season. He recorded a 2.11 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, struck out 101 batters in 93 innings and finished 5-1 down the stretch. Rodriguez has now posted the following ERAs and FIPs the past three seasons: 3.54/3.62, 3.02/3.54 and 3.60/3.50. He’s good for 180 strikeouts a year, too. Yet, people don’t talk about Rodriguez like they should. The guy could be a borderline No. 1 fantasy SP and is definitely an excellent No.2 in your staff’s rotation.
From underrated to overrated, Myers enjoyed a fortunate 2010 season by allowing just 0.80 HR/9 (compared to his 1.27 career mark) and a 76% strand rate. Still, he wasn’t completely lucky as he recorded a 2.73 K/BB and 3.56 FIP in 223 innings of work. It’s pretty easy to argue that Myers had a career season in ’10 so I expect a solid regression in ’11, making the right hander one of many middle-of-the-road starters.
Is Wilton Lopez > Brandon Lyon?
Last season, Brandon Lyon completely changed his pitching philosophy, tossing fastballs just 38% of the time (compared to 58% in ’09) while throwing his slider for 44% of his pitches (compared to 19% in ’09). The result? Lyon allowed only two HRs in 78 innings, walked 3.58 batters per nine innings and witnessed his GB/FB ratio flip from 1.31 in ’09 to just 0.99 in ’10. While he did save 20 of 22 games, it’s unlikely Lyon will be able to replicate his HR/9 rate and I doubt he’ll be as successful if he posts similar K/BB and GB/FB marks. For these reasons, fantasy owners should monitor the closer’s situation in Houston and recall that the Astros’ best reliever in 2010 was none other than Wilton Lopez. Lopez struck out about the same number of batters per nine innings as Lyon (6.72) but he walked hardly anyone (0.67 BB/9) while recording an impressive 2.96 ERA. Lopez thrived using mostly fastballs, throwing his bread-and-butter to batters about 80% of the time. The other thing Lopez has going for him is that the rest of the Houston bullpen isn’t too exciting (unless you consider Jeff Fulchino, Alberto Arias and Mark Melacon exciting). Based off last year’s numbers, I like Lopez’s chances of closing by season’s end.
The Cardinals' Middle Infield Is Really Bad. Not Seattle Mariners Bad, But Still Really Bad
If you added Ryan Theriot’s SLG% (.312) and Skip Schumaker’s SLG% (.338) in 2010, you’d get a combined .650 SLG%. That’s the equivalent of one Josh Hamilton, who posted a .633 SLG% mark last season. Needless to say, the Cardinals’ middle infielders do not make for good fantasy baseball players (or real baseball players, for that matter). In ’10, Theriot posted an ISO slightly better than me (0.43) while Schumaker scored 66 runs and batted all of .265. You can argue that Theriot has value in that he stole 20 bases and plays at a position of scarcity but I’d counter by saying that any player who doesn’t walk, can’t hit for much average and provides literally zero power is not worth a roster spot in any league format. Schumaker provides slightly more free passes and a couple more dingers but only stole five bases last season and experienced a .38-point drop in his BA.
If you’re employing either of these players on your fantasy team, you’re probably not making the playoffs – much like the Cardinals this season.
The Wild Card – Colby Rasmus
When he’s not feuding with manager Tony LaRussa, Colby Rasmus has posted some interesting numbers during his first two seasons in the big leagues. As a rookie, he dealt with a .282 BABIP and recorded just a .714 OPS to go along with a pedestrian .156 ISO. Last season, Rasmus’ BABIP jumped 72 points to .354, which helped push his BA to .276 and OPS to .859. While you can attribute some of the outfielder’s success to good fortune, Rasmus showed promising jumps in his SLG% (91-point improvement to .498) and ISO (66-point improvement to .222). Oddly, Rasmus improved his BB% by 5% but also struck out in 31% of his ABs (an 11% increase over his ’10 mark). At just 24 years old, Rasmus has plenty of room to grow and the Cardinals are hoping he can have a breakout season in 2011. However, that elevated BABIP makes me nervous as does his high strikeout rate.
Cleveland’s Great Hope At Catcher
Not since Tony Pena crouched behind the dish at Jacobs Field have I been as excited to watch a Cleveland catcher play baseball. Carlos Santana was as good as advertised in 2010, tallying a .260/.401(!)/.467 line despite an unlucky .277 BABIP. Santana also connected for six HRs in 150 ABs to go along with a .207 ISO. Anytime your catcher posts an .868 OPS in his rookie season, you’ve got to feel good. Of course, this being Cleveland and all, something had to go wrong and it did on August 2nd when Santana experienced a gruesome knee injury thanks to a collision with Boston’s Ryan Kalish. Kalish collided with Santana at home plate, causing a high grade strain of his LCL and a hyperextension of his left knee. While Santana missed the remainder of the season, all reports indicate he’s fully recovered and the injury shouldn’t slow him moving forward.
As for his fantasy value, it’s true that there are legitimate concerns around Santana’s ability to hit LHP after he posted just a .146/.311/.271 line versus southpaws in ’10. However, Santana managed to post an .838 minor league mark against LHP in 2010 so there’s hope he’ll improve in this area during 2011. Bottom line: Santana has a legitimate chance to be a top 5 catcher who will also provide 1B eligibility by the end of May.
Chris Perez Is No Joe Borowski – Thank Goodness
Cleveland’s closer of the future became the closer of the present last season when Chris Perez saved 23 games and posted a 1.74 ERA. Expect Perez to handle 9th inning duties for a long time in Cleveland but don’t expect him to be as effective in 2011 as he was in 2010. For the second straight season, Perez did his best Joe Borowski impression by walking at least four batters per nine innings which doesn’t usually equate to a sub-2.00 ERA. Perez also enjoyed an abnormally high strand rate of 86% while lowering his HR/FB from 12.5% in ’10 to 5.5% in ’11. This isn’t to say Perez will struggle this season but I’d expect an ERA much closer to 3.00 to go along with a 9.0 K/9 mark. The RHP doesn’t turn 26 until July and should be valued comfortably within the Tier II closers in your rankings.
John Lackey – Earlier this week, I had a dream that I was watching John Lackey throw a bullpen session and he was consistently hitting 97 mph. I then went home and added him to my fantasy team’s roster. Aside from the fact that it’s a little disturbing that I’m having dreams about John Lackey, I do expect Boston’s RHP to rebound from a poor 2010. A season ago, Lackey experienced his highest BABIP since 2005 (.319) and lowest strand rate (69%) of his career. His K/BB also dropped from 2.96 in ’09 to 2.17. I’m encouraged by Lackey’s second half numbers as he lowered both his ERA from 4.78 to 3.97 and WHIP from 1.60 to 1.21 while posting a 3.38 K/BB. Considering Lackey recorded ERAs under 4.00 between 2005-2009, I expect he’ll bounce back and be right around the 3.90-4.10 mark this season with about 155 strikeouts.
Jayson Werth –I grabbed Jayson Werth in my fantasy auction this past week for $19 and felt like I got a steal considering the slugger had crushed 36 and 27 HRs the past two seasons, respectively. However, as I looked closer at his numbers, I’m not feeling quite as good about myself. The new Nationals outfielder posted very similar numbers in 2009 (.268/.373/.506) compared to 2010 (.296/.388/.532). His ISO was .238 and .236 each season, respectively, and he recorded about the same BB% and K%. We can attribute the improved BA in ’10 to an unsustainable .352 BABIP so he likely won’t hit around .300 again. Additionally, Werth hit 18 HRs and posted a .999 OPS at Citzens Bank Park in Philly but hit just 9 HRs and owned an .838 OPS on the road. Going to Nationals Park isn’t going to help his power numbers so Werth may struggle to reach even 27 HRs again in 2011. Werth should still have a solid season but it’s a stretch to think he’s going to be as good or better than the past two seasons.
Brad Lidge – Usually when injury news is reported about Brad Lidge, he’ll quickly tell the media that he’s just fine. That’s why I’m worried about his comments on Friday when the Phillies announced the closer will begin the season on the DL with an inflamed shoulder. “I’m a little concerned, because I haven’t had shoulder problems in the past,” Lidge said. General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. didn’t make Lidge’s fantasy owners feel much better when he added, “It’s all a concern, of course. We don’t think it’s going to be a long-term issue, but it could be."
Lidge is 34 and while he posted a 2.96 ERA and 3.87 FIP last season, he continues to run into arm issues the past couple years. Since it sounds like he may be out for awhile, the Phillies will turn to either Ryan Madson or Jose Contreras to hold down the 9th inning duties. Madson had the better season in ’10 (2.61 FIP compared to Contreras’ 3.27 mark) but he has also struggled in the past when handed the keys to the 9th inning. Go ahead and pick up Madson but keep a close eye on Contreras as whoever closes should receive plenty of save chances.
Tommy Hunter – The Rangers announced on Friday that RHP Tommy Hunter will miss at least six weeks with a groin injury which he suffered in his final spring training start on Thursday. Hunter was originally slated to be part of the Texas starting rotation but it now appears that either veteran Dave Bush or Michael Kirkman will fill out the starting staff. Neither guy is worth consideration in any league format.
Last season, Hunter enjoyed a solid first half, posting a 5-0 record, 2.34 ERA and 1.15 WHIP before stumbling down the stretch en route to owning a 4.41 ERA and 1.27 WHIP after the All-Star break. Hunter’s overall 3.73 ERA was deceiving as he struck out a mere 4.78 batters per nine innings and tallied a 4.99 FIP. Hunter also relied on an unsustainable 81% strand rate and .255 BABIP so whenever he does return from injury, don’t expect the big fella to be nearly as fantasy relevant as he was in ’10.
Mat Latos – The Padres’ ace pitcher will be sidelined with an inflamed bursa sac in his right shoulder and may miss his Opening Day start. There is currently no timetable for him to begin throwing again. Even if just a minor injury, this is troubling for Latos’ fantasy owners as the youngster threw 184 innings in 2010 – an increase of 62 innings over his 2009 workload. That type of increased workload is like the Verducci Effect – squared. Latos was wildly successful last season, holding opponents to a .216 batting average against and recording a 9.21 K/9 and 2.92 ERA. We expect similar numbers this season but that assumes Latos can stay healthy for 190 innings. Monitor this situation closely and expect the Padres to be very conservative with Latos’ recovery.
Sergio Mitre – Fire sale? Not quite, but the Yankees did make a trade Friday, shipping Sergio Mitre to the Brewers in exchange for Chris Dickerson and there’s speculation that Mitre could step into a starting role while Zach Greinke is sidelined with a broken rib. However, Milwaukee will likely use Mitre in a relief role in the long term so there’s really not much value here. The RHP actually posted an impressive 3.33 ERA in 54 innings last season but benefited from an absurdly low .226 BABIP and owns a career 5.27 ERA and 4.72 FIP. You can probably do worse for a SP during the first month of the season, but not by much.
Logan Morrison – Logan Morrison doesn’t generate nearly as much excitement as fellow Florida outfielder Mike Stanton. But fantasy owners, especially in leagues using OBP, might want to give Morrison a closer look as the second year player should be a useful asset off the bench in most league formats. Morrison went 2-for-3 with two RBI against the Mets on Friday and batted .283/.390/.447 in his first go-round in the majors in 2010. While the power may not develop for another season or two, Morrison has already shown the type of patience you love to see in a young hitter. He walked in 14% of his ABs in ’10 and chased just 21% of pitches outside the strike zone. In 12- or 14-team leagues that use OBP, consider Morrison in later rounds of your draft or for a few bucks in your auction.
Dayan Viciedo – The White Sox announced on Friday that Dayan Viciedo will have his broken thumb x-rayed again this weekend with the hope that the young outfielder can resume swinging a bat next week. Viciedo has been out since March 10 and may not return until mid-April. To say the portly 5-foot-11, 240-pounder struggled with patience at the big league level last season is an understatement. He drew two walks in 106 PAs in ’10, good for a 1.9% BB%. No, that isn’t a typo, either. In Viciedo’s defense, he’s always been a free swinger, recording BB% of 4.3% and 3.0% in the minors during ’09 and ’10. The guy does have some pop, cracking 20 HRs at AAA before being called up last season. Viciedo has more value in keeper leagues but remains an interesting player to watch once he returns from injury considering his power and the fact that, assuming he finds a roster spot, he’s playing home games at HR-friendly U.S. Cellular.
J.J. Putz – Good news for Arizona as J.J. Putz didn’t experience any setbacks during his bullpen session on Friday and is scheduled to throw again on Sunday and Tuesday. He may not be ready for Opening Day but don’t expect Putz to be out much longer than the first full week of April, if at all. Aside from his horrific 2009 campaign with the Mets, Putz has been a solid, and sometimes, spectacular, reliever since 2006. Putz utilized a split-fingered fastball last season, tossing the pitch 29% of the time while only throwing a straight fastball for 58% of his pitches (compared to 70% in ’09). That combination certainly worked as Putz struck out nearly 11 batters per nine innings and held opponents to a .202 batting average. There are flashier closers to grab but Putz will like be overlooked in your league so consider him as a cheap source of strikeouts and saves.
Koji Uehara – The Orioles’ closer from last season pitched a scoreless inning today, recording three outs on seven pitches while walking a batter as he returns from elbow issues earlier this spring. Uehara may be back for Opening Day although Kevin Gregg is officially the Baltimore closer – at least for now. As I mentioned on Twitter awhile back, Uehara had better numbers than Gregg in ’10 and I expect him to take over the closer’s role by mid-season. Uehara flew under the radar in ’10 but owned an 11.25 K/9, 1.02 BB/9, 1.02 HR/9 and 2.40 FIP while going 13/15 in saves. Gregg, on the other hand, did save 33 games but wasn’t nearly as impressive, posting a 8.85 K/9, 4.58 BB/9, 0.61 HR/9 and 3.57 FIP. Keep Uehara on your radar for when Gregg starts to struggle.
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