A 2B Battle on the north-side of Chicago?
Heading into the season it seemed likely the Cubs would go with a straight platoon of Jeff Baker and Blake DeWitt at 2B, but with DeWitt struggling mightily this spring (.167/.180/.250) its opened the door for Cubs minor leaguer Darwin Barney (minor league career: .286/.334./374) to potentially compete for a starting spot. Barney has had a big spring hitting .359/.405/.436 but his minor league history suggests he’s not much more than a utility infielder and one with limited fantasy value. There isn’t any power potential and with just 33 SB’s in 4 minor league seasons there isn’t much in the way of speed. With Jeff Baker (career: .308/.363/.545 vs. LHP) likely to soak up playing time against LHP, Barney isn’t much of a fantasy option. More than anything this news eliminates Blake DeWitt as a relevant NL Only 2B option and in reality brings more opportunity for Jeff Baker to earn playing time against RH’s (career: .244/.300/.378). NL-Only players can downgrade DeWitt and bump up Baker a few spots, although this is more of a situation to avoid altogether with a potential three-way playing time split on the horizon.
Happy Belated Birthday to Starlin Castro!
Castro turned 21 on Thursday and celebrated by driving the first pitch he saw into the right-centerfield gap for a 2B, notching his 7th extra base hit of the spring. He entered Thursday’s contest with the White Sox hitting a cool .367/.392/.673 and flashing some of the power many scouts predicted would eventually come. I’m not sure many envisioned it coming at age 21 and perhaps I’m getting a bit over-excited about some spring training statistics, but I think Castro’s big spring carries over to the regular season. His power blossomed at AA last year (.569 Slugging % in 109 AB’s) as the LD machine posted a solid .193 ISO. While his power won’t reach those levels at the big leagues, I do anticipate some meaningful growth in his 2nd season. With 20 SB potential and a tremendous LD/hit tool that should result in a .300 average, a pop towards 10 HR’s would make Castro an easy Top 10 SS and a lot closer to a guy like Derek Jeter than many think. If you miss out on the current great values at SS (Alexei Ramirez and Stephen Drew), Castro is a guy I think won’t finish much beyond that group (Ramirez, Drew, Jeter) this season.
Esmil Rogers wins the 5th starter role to open the season:
A few weeks back I noted that the options with the most upside, and likelihood, to win the 5th starter’s role in Colorado was Esmil Rogers. On Thursday that news became official as the Rockies named Rogers their 5th starter, which will likely earn him a start in Pittsburgh during the Rockies 3rd series of the season. Rogers has shown an interesting combination of skills at the big league level (8.17 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, 56% GB Rate), but its resulted in very little actual performance (6.04 ERA, 3.42 FIP). A career 56% LOB Rate is partly responsible, but the bigger issue for Rogers is that he just leaves too many balls over the middle of the plate (career 21.4% LD Rate). The good skills suggest he has some upside as a back-end rotation option, but owners will want him to show it on the field before investing. For mixed leaguers he’s not worthy of consideration, but those in NL-Only formats will want to keep Rogers on a watch list.
The other ramifications of this decision are: John Maine will continue his recovery in AAA, Greg Reynolds will shift his competition to a bullpen role, while Aaron Cook starts the season on the DL.
Jonathan Herrera’s big spring complicating the 2B battle:
Heading into spring training I assumed Jose Lopez was the odds-on favorite to win the 2B job and continued to tout him as a late round sleeper. But as the spring has worn on Lopez has been underwhelming (.238/.304/.262), while Jonathan Herrera has been eye-opening (.356/.431/.556). The Rockies are taking their time making the decision and letting the battle play out, which should be considered a good thing for Lopez who has history and money on his side. I’ve talked a lot about Lopez’s career history and the suffocating effects SAFECO Field has had on RHB’s power, as well as the limitations of Herrera’s bat historically (.280/.346/.365 career minor league numbers). If Herrera is able to pull the upset and land the starting job, his minor league history suggests he’ll be limited as a batting average/runs contributor for NL Only leagues. Conversely, if Lopez is able to hold Herrera off, he’ll have mixed league value as a sleeper for .280 with 20 HR’s and 80 RBI’s. We’ll continue to keep you updated as the battle wears down. For now, I’ve gone from drafting Lopez late as a sleeper to keeping him on my watch list as a potential pickup.
Eric Young Jr., the elite speedster, remains on the periphery. The Rockies are trying to give him some time in CF to increase his versatility (and perhaps his trade value). The Rockies are typically active late in spring shaping their roster and it would not surprise to see one of these MI options moved with Eric Young Jr. and Jose Lopez as potential trade candidates. Young Jr.’s value would increase with a trade and more defined playing time, while Jose Lopez’s power-dependent value would likely be negatively impacted moving away from Coors.
Reds battle for a 5th rotation spot continues into the season:
With Johnny Cueto headed for the DL to start the season, both Mike Leake and Travis Wood will start the year in the Reds rotation. Wood has won the competition rather easily, despite posting just a 4.66 ERA in 19 1/3 innings, as Leake has imploded. Leake has posted a horrific 4:7 K:BB Ratio in 15 1/3 innings while posting an ERA above 9. Whenever you’ve allowed more HR’s (5) than strikeouts (4), it’s not a good sign. Wood, on the other hand, has posted a solid 18:3 K:BB Ratio in his 19 1/3 innings, continuing his strong run from last year. Given the performance last year and this spring, it’s becoming apparent Wood is the better option as the Reds 5th SP. He’s the guy to target in NL-Only leagues and makes for a nice matchups play in mixed formats. He’ll open the 2nd week of the season with a two-start effort against Houston and @Arizona, making for a potential strong start to the season.
Surprising OFs making noise in Reds camp:
Heading into the spring, the Reds had a 4-man OF that seemed pretty set with Fred Lewis and Jonny Gomes platooning in LF, Jay Bruce in RF and Drew Stubbs in CF. While Bruce has continued his growth, the rest of the OF group has struggled. Gomes and Stubbs still appear locked into starting roles despite their struggles, but Fred Lewis’ roster spot is now in jeopardy. The contenders for the 1-2 bench OF spots, include Chris Heisey and Jeremy Hermida. Given Gomes limitations defensively and his likely need for a platoon (.233/.309/.438 vs. RHP), whomever wins the 4th OF role could be in for significant playing time.
Lewis is still in the mix but his (.175/.261/.250) line has left a lot to be desired this spring. He’s out of options and but has cleared waivers before. Heisey is the best defensive option and with an impressive .341/.396/.727 line this spring may have earned a role as a backup LF/CF if the Reds decide to keep 5 OF’s. He still has options left though, so is the most likely to start the season in AAA. Hermida is perhaps the most interesting of the group as the former top prospect has thrown his name in the ring with a .324/.455/.618 line that is remniscient of his performance in the minors that earned him the top prospect status. Hermida had flashed elite potential before, always posting strong BB Rates (career 9.5%), but lacked the power or consistent contact to become an elite offensive player. Is it possible the power comes in a more friendly hitters park and Hermida’s potential is finally unlocked? While not likely, it is possible. If he makes the squad as the 4th OF and gets a chance at playing time, I’d take the chance in NL Only leagues. Hermida’s big spring has brought him back on the radar.
News from Around the League:
Brent Morel (3B – CHA) – The White Sox named Brent Morel the starting 3B on Thursday as he beat out Mark Teahen for the role. Morel is considered a solid defender at 3B, but may not be ready with the bat. He hit just .231/.271/.415 in 65 AB’s last season and was called up after just under 500 AB’s above high A last season. His 26% K Rate, 34% Outside Swing Rate, and 12% LD Rate all indicate he was overmatched at the major league level last season. At the minor league level he’s been a good average hitter (career .305), while showing adequate pop and speed. As he adjusts to big league pitching something around .280-75-15-75-15 type seasons would be within his reach but I wouldn’t expect this year as a 22 year old. In AL Only formats he has some value as a back-end starting 3B with upside hitting in a good lineup and good home park with limited competition, but owners should keep expectations tempered.
Mike Stanton (OF – FLA) – So much for that “timing” thing Stanton needed to work on. In his first start back from his quad injury Stanton smacked 2 HR’s off Clay Buchholz and drove in 7 in total in a 3-4 effort. This should put some fears aside about Stanton’s availability to start the season which then turns the discussion back towards skill, of which Stanton has plenty. He’s almost a pure “true outcomes” player as a majority of his AB’s either end in K’s, BB’s, or HR’s. A .248 ISO as a 20 year old in the big leagues is rather absurd, as is the 35% K Rate. He won’t be able to contribute much in average or speed, but his high BB Rate should help him contribute in Runs and the immense power makes him a legitimate 40 HR/100 RBI threat. He’s no secret in the fantasy world going in the 7th-9th rd (depending on league size), which has him adequately valued. I have no concerns about the high K Rate as the power production will more than make up for it. I noted on Twitter last year if there was a place I could wager that Stanton would eventually be the all time HR king, I’d take the long odds. He’s that special of a power talent.
Neftali Feliz (RP – TEX) – The fantasy world finally got the answer we were looking for on Thursday as the Rangers announced Neftali Feliz would stay in the bullpen, giving Derek Holland Matt Harrison the final two spots in the Rangers rotation. Feliz remains an elite closer option and this move likely helps his value which now has more certainty tied to it. Alexei Ogando can now be dropped in all non-hold formats, as owners begin shifting to other speculative save markets.
Brandon Belt (1B – SF) – With the Giants indicating their starting RF Cody Ross would begin the season on the DL, the Giants now have an excuse to bring Brandon Belt north with them when camp breaks. Now, Belt is NOT a lock to earn the roster spot as the Giants could simply shift Andres Torres to RF (bringing Aaron Rowand to CF) or give Nate Schieholtz AB’s in RF, but they could also shift Aubrey Huff to the OF and allow Belt to play 1B when camp breaks. Belt has posted the strongest spring numbers of the group that could potentially replace Ross (Rowand - .512 OPS, Schierholtz - .688 OPS, Belt - .788 OPS) and after cruising through 3 levels last season with a combined .352-.455-.620 line that included an OPS above .950 at every level, Belt looks ready to contribute. Upon the Ross news I began adding Belt across the board in 10 team leagues, and I think you should too.
Mike Morse (1B/OF – WAS) – I’ve been getting a bit of grief about Morse on Twitter of late, from some of our other analysts as well as followers, as it appears I’m buying into Morse’s spring and strong close to last season than many others. Morse homered for the 7th time this spring, this time off Rick Porcello, and is now up to .362/.400/.776 this spring. Granted Morse’s minor league numbers don’t scream prospect (.271/.330/.425), but the monster of a man (6’5 – 230 lbs) put up consistently strong production down the stretch last year. His OPS by month last season from May on was - .788, 1.049, 1.133, .732, .858. Now he only received consistent playing time in August/September last season (.799 OPS those two months), but he posted a .256-24-9-23 line in those last two months, which extrapolated over a full season is .256-72-27-69. With power becoming more scarce that’s a decent line and with the hot spring perhaps there is some more upside from there. He’s locked up an everyday role and while Morse isn’t going to help a ton in the batting average category, he’s got a shot at 25-30 HR’s. I’m not diving head-first in, but if I have an extra roster spot at the end of my bench, he’s worth a look.
Jordan Zimmermann (SP – WAS) – I’ve long loved Jordan Zimmermann’s skills and over a year removed from Tommy John surgery it appears he’ll get a full opportunity to put them on display this season. Zimmermann threw 5 very strong innings on Thursday night striking out 6 and walking just 1 in 5 scoreless innings. The K:BB Ratio this spring hadn’t been there until this last start (just 13:7 overall) but has been a staple of his performance as a big leaguer (career 8.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9). He’s even shown a nice ability to keep the ball on the ground as a big leaguer with a 45% GB Rate, but his issues with LD’s (21%) and HR’s (1.32 HR/9) have made his production worse than his skills would indicate (career 4.16 FIP, 4.71 ERA). With a bit more fortune this year and continued improvement in his ability to generate ground balls, Zimmermann has some significant upside. I strongly advise looking at him as a late round sleeper and those in dynasty type formats should look for the opportunity to get control of Zimmermann with a cheap price tag.
Mitch Moreland (1B – TEX) – Moreland continued his red-hot spring with a 3-5 effort that included his 7th 2B of the spring pushing his spring numbers up to .404/.443/.684. Moreland hasn’t been considered a top prospect but he keeps hitting at every stop. After posting a career .313/.383/.509 minor league mark he posted a solid .255/.364/.469 mark in his first 145 major league AB’s last season. While he may have to share AB’s with Michael Young and Mike Napoli at 1B/DH, he’ll have the inside track to everyday playing time. In a great hitters park and a loaded lineup, Moreland continues to fly under the radar.
Scott Kazmir (SP – LAA) – Kazmir’s horrific spring continued on Thursday as he allowed 8 ER’s and 11 base-runners in 5 innings of work against the Brewers. Kazmir’s velocity and skill-set have been in clear decline for years and he’s no longer a viable rotation option let alone a fantasy SP. Do not get sucked into name value, he’s on the Oliver Perez track and should be ignored in all formats.
Alex Gordon (OF – KC) – It might be a little early to get excited but Alex Gordon’s strong spring continued on Thursday. He launched his 4th HR and improved his spring numbers to a pretty startling .340/.470/.649. The numbers are supported by a strong 11:13 BB:K Ratio and 9 extra-base-hits in 53 AB’s. Sure its just spring training, but the once “can’t miss” prospect is opening eyes. At age 27, perhaps the breakout is finally here? Rostering Gordon is worth a shot in case it is.
Jaime Garcia (SP – STL) – Garcia was tagged for 10 Runs and 14 Hits in just 4 innings of work on Thursday. Just 3 of runs were earned, but Garcia allowed 4 extra base hits including 2 HR’s. It continued an ugly spring for Garcia in which he’s posted just a 6:6 K:BB Ratio in 17 innings while allowing 15 ER’s. It was apparent from Garcia’s peripherals that he pitched well above his head last season (2.70 ERA, 3.41 FIP) but his performance was still strong enough that it warranted fantasy attention. The spring struggles coupled with concerns over a Sophomore slump will likely push him down draft boards to a spot more commensurate with what he deserves. We’re projecting a rise in WHIP and ERA for Garcia which should make him more of a matchups type option than a reliable starter week-in and week-out.
