Preseason Prep - March 24th, 2011

TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Closer Update
The Jays’ bullpen has been hit with a couple of injuries, shaking up the closer situation. Expected closer Frank Francisco received good news from Dr. James Andrews the other day – no structural damage, a pitcher’s favorite words. Still, the discomfort in his pectoral muscle will likely leave Francisco on the 15-day DL to start the year. That would leave the door open for a battle between Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch, but Dotel also has injury issues. He’s been struggling with a hamstring injury this Spring. Although he may be ready to pitch come Opening Day, the limited Spring work and comments from Blue Jays’ management indicate that Dotel will not be first in line for saves in Francisco’s absence.

That honor is going to belong to Rauch. Rauch has had a strong Spring (2 hits, 0 runs in 6 innings). He doesn’t have the dominance of Francisco or Dotel, but his control has been solid 4 seasons running (BB/9 of 2.16/2.01/2.96/2.18). We should expect Rauch’s K/BB ratio to be solid (above 3) as a result, which is good enough to get the job done. Home runs and a lack of strikeouts will prevent Rauch from being dominant, though. Be aware that he’s unlikely to repeat last season’s (3.7 HR/FB%). Moving from pitcher friendly Target Field to Rogers Centre and the daunting AL East will have that number at least double – making Rauch a mid 3’s ERA candidate, not the 3.12 guy he was last season. Still, he’ll get first crack at getting saves, and if he’s successful out of the gate he could hold on to the job as managers are often reluctant to remove a closer who has not blown a save.

Keep an eye on some injuries
Brandon Morrow owners received a scare yesterday as it was announced he will start the season on the DL. For the moment, though, things don’t appear to be too bad. Morrow’s 15 day DL stint is expected to be backdated into March, meaning there’s a chance he’ll only miss one start. Still, I won’t be fully relieved until I see Morrow pitch. Pitcher injuries are often not as small as they seem, and Morrow’s right forearm inflammation is scary for a young, hard throwing pitcher coming off a large innings increase and who was mishandled earlier in his career. The Jays appear to be sending out Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, Kyle Drabek, Jo-Jo Reyes and Jesse Litsch as their 5 starters until Morrow comes back, with Reyes likely the odd man out.

Aaron Hill, whom I have as a very solid bounce back candidate, is still recovering from a quadriceps injury that has kept him out for most of Spring. Hill may still be ready to start on Opening Day, but he hasn’t had much time to get ready. Hill owners should be prepared to be without him for the opening weekend.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Getz a cheap speed option in deep leagues
Chris Getz could become a decent cheap speed option at the middle infield spot for those of you in deeper leagues. He will open the season as the Royals’ starting 2B and is projected to bat second in front of the Royals most powerful hitters, Billy Butler and Kila Ka’aihue. Getz has 41 steals in 189 career games including swiping 15 of 17 last season for the Royals. His EYE also grew from .56 to .68, which is always encouraging.

What will prevent Getz from being anything more than a cheap source of speed in fantasy circles, though, is his complete lack of power. In his rookie year, Getz posted a disappointing .085 ISO for the White Sox. Think that was bad? Then don’t even look at the .040 ISO he put up last season. All in all, Getz has managed just 2 homers in 606 career at bats. Last season, he averaged an extra base hit just once every 25 at bats, and none of those were homers or triples. There’s also playing time risk with Getz. Yes, he’ll open up the year as the starter, but if either Wilson Betemit or top prospect Mike Moustakas get their bat in the lineup at 3B, Mike Aviles would shift back to being the starting 2B, relegating Getz to bench duty. Bottom line: Getz may get you some steals in the beginning of the year, but there’s no upside here along with a lack of long term job security.

Don’t sleep on Royals’ cleanup hitter
Kila Ka’aihue enters the season as the Royals’ cleanup hitter. While he’s not a popular name (but fun to say!), he’s a decent sleeper source for power at the CI spot. Fantistics expects a 26 homer season out of Kila. Entering the season at age 27, Kila showed tremendous power last year, posting a .279 ISO and 24 HR at AAA in 94 games before hitting 8 homers in 206 plate appearances for the Royals. Yes, Kila hit just .217, but he had a very unlucky .190 singles average despite an okay .62 EYE. Fantistics expects Kila to be able to hit .266 this season based on a more normal singles average and Kila’s impressive EYE at AAA the past two seasons (1.20/1.28). While we are on that subject, Kila’s high walk rates (11.7% in the majors, 21.7% at AAA last year) indicate that he’s a very patient hitter who makes the pitcher come to him. As a result, the power numbers should be fairly consistent.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Arrival date important for owners with minor league drafts
Many keeper leagues have farm systems or minor league drafts. Depending on your league setup, it’s very important to keep arrival time as a factor when making picks, instead of just picking blindly from a list of ranked prospects. For example, Pittsburgh’s top pitching prospect is Jameson Taillon. Now, if you are in a shallow keeper league, he’s not the best guy to target despite the fact that he is Fantistics’ David Regan’s 7th ranked pitching prospect. Why? Well, Taillon (2nd overall pick of 2010 amateur player draft) is just 19 years old and isn’t projected to reach the majors until 2013. On the flip side, if you are in a deeper dynasty league and able to stash and wait, Taillon is a much better pick. David notes that Taillon, “Throws in mid-90’s and curve may be even better. Kershaw upside.” Now, that’s someone worth waiting for! Subscribers can find notes and expected arrival dates for our top 50 pitching and top 50 hitting prospects at Prospect Central.

Morton nabs a rotation spot
With a strong Spring (1.29 ERA in 14 IP), Charlie Morton has earned a spot in the Pittsburgh rotation. So, is he worthy of fantasy consideration? Well, Morton posted a 7.57 ERA (YIKES!) over 17 starts last season, going 2-12. However, there was some extremely bad luck involved in that: a BABIP 32 points above his career mark, LOB% 9 percentage points below career average and HR/FB% 6.2 percentage points above career average. He actually posted an okay xFIP of 4.26 and showed some skills. For the third straight year, he posted an above average GB% (50.2/49/46.8), and his K/BB ratio has steadily grown (1.17/1.55/2.27). Unfortunately, his 23.8 LD% means hitters were consistently hitting the ball hard off of Morton. What does this all mean? Morton is not nearly as bad as his surface stats indicated he was last season, and at age 27 with a steadily improving K/BB ratio and consistent ability to induce ground balls he may actually help some fantasy teams. Still, there’s too much risk here and not enough upside to warrant drafting Morton who will likely be a free agent in almost all leagues. I suggest a wait and see approach with Morton, but wouldn’t completely dismiss him just because of 2010’s sky high ERA.

Other Notes
Asdrubal Cabrera SS (CLE) – Cabrera is having a nice Spring Training, knocking three homers and totaling three steals. Now, Cabrera will never be anything close to a power hitting SS, but I do think there’s a chance he gets to double digit homers this year, which along with 20 steal capability, a decent average and decent lineup spot make Cabrera a nice sleeper at an offensively deprived position. He had a bad 2010 campaign of which injuries were partly to blame, but in 2009 Cabrera stroked 41 doubles. There’s a chance we see some of those doubles turn into homers for the 25 YO this season, and his 3 Spring long balls are certainly a good sign.

Kendry Morales 1B (LAA) – Bad news for Morales owners as his rehab has been put on hold. It initially seemed as if Morales would complete a 15 day DL stint and be back mid-April, but that is unlikely to happen now. It’s unclear when Morales will be able to return, but I’m bumping him down in my rankings until I hear more encouraging news. Current Morales owners should plan to be without him for at least the month of April.

Peter Bourjos OF (LAA) – The Morales injury news is good for Bourjos owners, as it will allow Abreu to DH leaving open a starting OF spot for Bourjos who is a nice cheap steal candidate. Bourjos will bat ninth. He also actually has surprising power for a speed guy, and Fantistics projects him to hit 16 homers to go along with 35 steals. Bourjos is risky (see .204 BA in 181 at bats last season), but his surprising pop and market value make him with a gamble in the later rounds.

Francisco Liriano SP (MIN) – I never like to get to excited over Spring Training stats, but Liriano struck out 9 batters in 3 IP yesterday! The biggest question around Liriano, as per usual, is health. His skills clearly returned last season as he posted a 2.66 FIP thanks to outstanding peripherals such as a 9.44 K/9, 3.47 K/BB and 53.6 GB%. He’s high risk high reward again, but unlike around draft time last year, now we know the skills are back intact heading into the start of the season.

Brandon Beachy SP (ATL) – In somewhat surprising news, Brandon Beachy, not Mike Minor, has won Atlanta’s 5th spot in the starting rotation. You can bump Beachy up your rankings as a result of this news. He had an absolutely outstanding year last season, posting K/9 of 12.11 and 9.46 respectively at AA and AAA leading to impressive FIP’s of 2.00 and 2.19. Beachy also made 3 major league starts. Clearly a small sample size, but it was good to see him strike out 15 batters in 15 innings. The 24 YO demands immediate fantasy consideration.

Alexi Ogando RP (TEX) – With Neftali Feliz slated to make his final Spring start today, a decision will likely be made sooner rather than later determining his role as either a closer or a starter. Should Feliz be named a starter, there’s a good chance Ogando would most likely get the majority of save opportunities. Fantistics projects Ogando to post some fine ratios (2.54 ERA, 1.19 WHIP), meaning we are more than confident in his ability to close out games should he be given the opportunity.

Curtis Granderson OF (NYY) – While Granderson’s oblique injury has to have some owners worried, Manager Joe Girardi must have soothed the nerves of some fantasy players with his comments yesterday. Girardi indicated that Granderson still could play Opening Day. Granderson is a bit underrated due to his understated BA from a year ago, but he should rack up the counting stats in a hitter friendly lineup and a hitter friendly ballpark.

Roy Oswalt SP (PHI) – Oswalt was hit with a line drive yesterday. Fortunately the initially scary incident seems to have ended just with a bruised neck for Oswalt. Oswalt should be a quality SP this year, but some regression is expected as Oswalt, at age 33, posted his best strikeout rate since his rookie season 10 years ago. A repeat of that is unlikely.

Sergio Romo RP (SF) – It’s not clear who Manager Bruce Bochy favors to finish 9th innings should Brian Wilson not be available at the beginning of the season. One candidate is sure to be Sergio Romo who would be well equipped for the job. Romo is dominant, posting K/9’s the past two seasons of 10.85 and 10.16, but he also has good control as evidenced by his outstanding 5 K/BB ratio last season. Fantistics projects Romo to reach 72 strikeouts with solid ratios (2.73 ERA, 1.03 WHIP).