Preseason Fantistics Analysis - Wednesday, March 23, 2011
New York Yankees
Is a bad start to the season a thing of the past for Mark Teixeira?
Mark Teixeria is a notoriously slow starter. Ask any fantasy owner about Tex’s April performance and get ready for stories of Mendoza-line hitting, high K rates, and no production. For his career, Tex has a .235 AVG and a .753 OPS in April. Compare that to May through September by month of .293/.913, .273/.905, .291/.932, .308/.974, and .300/.965. But this year, he began his preseason workout much earlier and has a different approach this spring that seems to be having a positive effect on his March results. He’s hitting .317 this spring with a .391 OBP and 1.025 OPS. Seems good enough, until you look at his previous spring trainings and he posted .433/.485/1.285 in 2009 and .362/.423/1.019 in 2010. Maybe its the cold weather or maybe its just psychological. Either way, you have to expect a poor April from Tex until he proves otherwise.
More ABs for Andruw Jones?
With Curtis Granderson hampered by a strained oblique, GM Brian Cashman has indicated that Grandy might not be ready for opening day. It doesn’t sound like a DL-stint or even more than a few days into the season, but Granderson probably will be on the bench for the first pitch. If it is a DL trip, it could be dated back to yesterday which would put him back with the Yankees on April 6th (and a few free days of roster space for your fantasy team). That also means Brett Gardner will move to CF and offseason pickup Andruw Jones will get the start in LF while the Yanks add Greg Golson to the roster as a 4th outfielder. Don’t be too quick to laugh off the 33 year old Jones though. When he gets ABs, he hits HRs. In 2009 with Texas, he posted an AB/HR of 16.5. Last year with the White Sox, his rate was 14.6. That’s an ISO of .246 and .255 and an XBH% of 10.6% and 9.8%. After these first few days, most of his playing time will come against lefties. Last year, versus LHP, he posted an OPS of .931 and the Yankees will probably face at least one lefty, Phil Coke, in their opening series against the Tigers.
Milwaukee Brewers
Brew Crew Options Mat Gamel to Triple-A - Future Prince Fielder Replacement at 1B?
The Brewers optioned third baseman Mat Gamel to Triple-A to learn how to play first base. With Prince Fielder a free agent at the end of the 2011 season, this may be to prepare the team for a potential mid-season Fielder trade. This is the best option for Gamel, who probably wouldn’t be overtaking Casey McGehee at third base anyway. The 25 year old has always had the offensive potential to be a fantasy impact player, but hasn’t lived-up to the potential. In 2,342 minor league ABs, Gamel has just 77 HR (AB/HR of 30.4), OPS of .865, and a BB/K of 0.51. In big league service, he has 5 HR in 145 AB with an OPS of .749. If he gets called-up mid-year and sees everyday playing time, he could have some fantasy value with multiple position eligibility and power potential. It will mostly be focused in NL-only leagues for now.
Chicago White Sox
High Fives for the White Sox #4 Outfielder - Lastings Milledge
Let me be clear from the get-go. There is no way you draft Lastings Milledge on draft day. Ok, with that out of the way and Milledge going largely unnoticed in fantasy circles, you also can’t forget about him. He’s only 25 years old with 5 years of big league experience, has had a great spring (4 HR, 10 RBI, 3 SB), and still has the speed potential to make an impact. Since he won’t be starting, he becomes valueless for now. But an injury to any of the ChiSox outfielders could have Milledge in an everyday role. Its always good to know the depth charts of teams, especially in AL/NL only leagues. The 12th overall pick in the 2003 draft, Milledge has been shuffled around the league trying to find a home. His one real full season in 2008 was with the Nationals and he posted a modest .731 OPS, but did manage to steal 24 bases in 33 attempts in 138 games. He even hit 14 HR for an AB/HR of 37.4, which isn’t great but would certainly be decent for AL-only players. In the end, Milledge may not amount to anything with his 4th team in 6 years, but he’s still young enough to prove the naysers wrong.
Catching Prospect Tyler Flowers optioned to Triple-A
Tyler Flowers was optioned to Triple-A on Tuesday. That’s no surprise to Flowers or anyone else since he was the obvious #3 catcher behind AJ Pierzynski and Ramon Castro. But Flowers showed a ton of improvement at the plate this spring compared to last year. In 11 games in 2010, Flowers hit just .111 with no extra base hits in 11 games. This year, he hit .476 with 2 HR and 2 doubles in 12 games. The 25 year old is the catcher of the future on the southside of Chicago and should remain on keeper lists.
1. Wandy Rodriguez (SP - Astros) - Wandy has had some shoulder issues this spring that has concerned plenty of fantasy owners this year, but he looked pretty sharp on Tuesday. The good news is that the shoulder isn’t getting better and doesn’t seem to be a long-term concern at this point. He may be dropping a bit in drafts, but don’t forget the fantastic second half of 2010 when he posted a 2.11 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, K/BB of 3.6, and was 14-for-16 in QS. I consider him in to the Top-40 of SP and rising if his shoulder is 100% heading into Opening Day.
2. Billy Butler (1B - Royals) - It didn’t take long for Butler to climb up draft boards (currently a top-10 1B with an ADP of about 7.1). He is certainly making his case this spring, bringing a hot bat into the mix with 19-for-55, 14 RBI, and 3 SB. Yes, we all know spring stats don’t mean much, but we all know a hot spring does give you a little more confidence on draft day. We’ll have to wait and see if Butler’s season yields HR power, as the best he’s done in his career is an AB/HR of 29.0 in 2009 with an ISO of .191. Last year both figures dropped to 39.7 and .151. He’s only 24, so he plenty of time. We have him forecasted for 24 HR this year.
3. Mike Aviles (SS - Royals) - Manager Ned Yost has indicated that Mike Aviles is the most likely leadoff man for the Royals this season. Normally, Aviles wouldn’t get much love in fantasy circles. But SS is probably the weakest position this season, so it might mean digging really deep to find your SS. The 30-year SS (who should have at least 2B position eligibility in your league as well, maybe even 3B) won’t kill you in average. He hit .304 last year and .325 in 2008 (2009 he was injured). In the minors, he never posted a season under .300. He’s already batting .340 this spring with 4 SB and Yost has already indicated that Aviles should be running more this year. He’s a late round gamble that won’t hurt you too much, has some SB upside, and some position flexibility.
4. Luke Hochevar (SP - Royals) - If you think about which of the Royals starting pitchers you would consider having on your team, Hochever may be the one (but I wouldn’t recommend it). Hochever, the Royals Opening Day starter, has had plenty of hype after being selected as the 1st pick in the 2006 draft. In four years in the big leagues, he has failed to live up to it. His best season was probably last year as he posted a 6-6 record with a 4.81 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and a K/9 of 6.6. He has his fair share of problems against lefties with a SLG% of .439 compared to his vs. righties SLG% of .395. He also tends to struggle on the road, posting an away OPS of .859 last year compared to his home rate of .673. I don’t touch him in mixed leagues and I don’t think his magical year of “27” is his breakout one.
5. Kelly Johnson (2B - Diamondbacks) - Let’s hope Kelly Johnson didn’t peak a year too early. Afterall, 2011 is his contract year and he hit 26 HR in 2010. But I think Johnson will have a pretty comparable year this season, with a forecasted 25 HR, 75 RBI, a dozen SB, and 90 runs scored. When you think about that 2nd tier of second baseman, that isn’t that marginally different from some of the higher echelon players. Johnson may be a guy that drops into double-digit rounds and yields good value on draft day. I guarantee Brandon Phillips goes multiple rounds higher than Johnson even though they will yield virtually the same production.
6. Michael Brantley (OF - Indians) - With Grady Sizemore still suffering from knee issues and not expected to be ready for opening day, Michael Brantley will get the call in CF and bat leadoff for the Tribe. What a difference a year makes. In 2009, Brantley burst onto the scene hitting .313 with 4 SB in 28 games. The hype was high until 2010 when he hit .246 with an OBP of .296, just 10 SB, and an XBH% of just 4.6%. His spring training hasn’t been much better, hitting just .256 this year in a dozen games. The important thing to remember here is that he’ll be an everyday outfielder even when Sizemore returns (Brantley will move to LF) and could still you 20+ SB this year, depending on if he can boost his OBP. The kid is just 23 so there is still plenty of upside room for him to grow.
7. Dustin Ackley (2B - Mariners) - Reports on Tuesday have Jack Wilson moving over to the other side of the bag to be the everyday second baseman, making room for Brendan Ryan at SS. That means Ackley will likely begin the year in Triple-A Tacoma, but don’t expect that to last too long. Ackley will get the call-up this season, although the Mariners have not charted his timetable just yet. Ackley, one of the top prospects in the game and the #2 pick in the 2009 draft, remains a must-have keeper.
8. Casey Blake (3B - Dodgers) - Casey Blake will likely begin the season on the disabled list this year with back issues. The thinking is that Juan Uribe would get time at 3B and Jamey Carroll will take over at 2B. Don’t be too quick to dismiss Blake on draft day, as he could end up being a good value that you can stash away for the first two weeks of the season. 3B is weak again this year and in NL-only leagues, 15 HR is not bad. For mixed leaguers, however, a 37 year old aging 3B with nagging injuries doesn’t make the cut. His ISO has dropped for 3 straight seasons and his BB/K rate has dropped from 0.54 to 0.35 in two seasons.
9. Curtis Granderson (OF - Yankees) - Granderson was scratched yesterday with a strained oblique and there is some chatter that he may not be ready for opening day. As I mention in this morning’s team notes, that would leave some ABs open for Andruw Jones and move Brett Gardner to CF in the short term. There are no tests scheduled yet, so we’ll have to wait and see today if the injury is serious. If the Yanks put him on the DL, it can be retroactive to yesterday, making him ready to rejoin the team on April 6th.
10. Jon Rauch (RP - Blue Jays) - Frank Francisco will not be ready for the start of the season, according to manager John Farrell. Francisco met with Dr. Andrews who diagnosed him with bicep tendinitis AND pectoral tightness. That immediately bumps Jon Rauch up to the leading candidate to be the everyday closer for the Blue Jays.
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