KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Is anyone in this rotation worth owning?
As of now, the projected Royals’ rotation, in no particular order, looks something like this: Kyle Davies, Jeff Francis, Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar and Vin Mazzaro. Kyle Davies should not be owned anywhere, as he has virtually no skills: career 20 LD%, 39.2 GB% and 1.45 K/BB ratio. Chen posted an okay 4.17 ERA but his FIP (4.54) and xFIP (5.01) indicate it is likely to rise this season. If Chen’s HR/FB% (8.1 last season) reverts back to his career mark of 13.3%, he’ll be in serious trouble as he is an extreme FB pitcher (33.9 GB% last season). Avoid. At least there’s some upside with Hochevar as he was once considered a solid pitching prospect for the Royals. He has an okay ground ball rate and okay K/BB ratio, which considering the rest of the group is something. Unfortunately his terrible road and lefty splits severely limit his upside as does an incredibly low strand rate that, at 65 career games started, can’t simply be attributed to bad luck. Jeff Francis to me is an intriguing option. After missing all of 2009, he came back to start 19 games last season and showed amazing control, leading to a very solid 2.91 K/BB ratio, and he also showed an above average ability to get ground balls (47%). An unlucky strand rate cost him some points on the ERA. With that likely to revert to normal this season and the move from Coors to Kauffman, Francis may be the most likely Royal starter to post a sub 4 ERA. The last of the group, Vin Mazzaro, has seen his walk rate increase and K rate decrease since making the jump to the majors. The result has been two sub-par K/BB ratios of 1.51 and 1.58, which will not get it done with only an average ability to keep the ball on the ground.
Keep an eye on the young arms
While the current Royals’ rotation seems to offer anything but promise, their farm system is filled with just that. Over at Fantistics’ Prospect Central, 5 of David Regan’s top 40 pitching prospects are part of the Royal’s organization. The top two are Mike Montgomery and John Lamb. Both aren’t expected to join the big league club until 2012, but keep an eye out on them and the rest of the Royals’ pitching prospects if you are in long term keeper leagues or leagues that allow a farm system.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Aaron Hill is primed for a bounce back season…
Last year Aaron Hill failed to build on breakout season and busted badly. Hill did show his power was for real. After hitting 36 homers and posting a .213 ISO in 2009, Hill hit 26 homers and posted a .189 ISO. Yes, there was some regression, but it did show that Hill’s power outburst was not a fluke. Hill’s main reason for disappointing owners last season was a dreadful .205 batting average. That low batting average was the result of Hill’s career worst LD% of 10.5% and, consequently, an awful .149 singles average. With no decline in EYE and only a slight regression in ISO, there’s no reason to expect that low LD% to continue. Expect Hill’s LD% to be around his career mark of 18.5%. We should also anticipate Hill’s singles average to normalize, partly because his LD% will be much better. His .149 mark from last season was clearly an outlier: .252/.241/.239 in ‘07/’08/’09. We have Hill projected to hit .270 with 27 HR and to go 85/88 in RS/RBI’s.
…but another Blue Jay is not
Adam Lind also disappointed owners last season. After posting an AVG/OBP/SLG line of .305/.370/.562 in 2009, he fell off the map last year to post a .237/.287/.425 line. You hate to call 2009 a fluke/career year for a player who is just 27, but Lind’s numbers all indicate that may be the case. Just look at these trends in Lind’s stats from 2007/2008/2009/2010. EYE: .25/.27/.53/.26. HR/FB%: 13.3/11/19.8/13.3. LD%: 18.5/18.8/20.2/18.7. ISO: .162/.156/.257/.288. The third number (from 2009) is an outlier in all of these groupings, which really points toward Lind’s ’09 campaign being a career year where everything just happened to come together. He could still settle in somewhere between 2009 and 2010, as we project him to, but I doubt he’ll ever sniff those 2009 figures again. Making me most pessimistic are Lind’s putrid 2010 numbers versus southpaws. He posted a .10 EYE to go with a triple slash of .117/.159/.182.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Philosophy on running game beneficial to fantasy owners
Only one team, the Kansas City Royals, have attempted more stolen bases than the Pirates this Spring Training. If we are to believe anything Manager Clint Hurdle says, we should expect this to continue once the regular season begins. Over Spring Training Hurdle has seen quoted saying, “Speed, surprise and variety are going to be the staples of our offense,” and [baserunning] is a way for us to close the gap.” It sounds as if Hurdle is willing to let some of his guys run wild. This means a boost in roto value for Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata who could both steal 40 this season. Neil Walker might get double digit steals, too; don’t be too fooled by last year’s major league total of 2 as he had stolen 10 bases in AAA before getting called up. Of course, talk is cheap, and we’ll have to see what happens once the season actually starts. I’d leave the Fantistics projections where they are for each of the aforementioned players, but feel confident they will reach those targets and may reward you with some extra speed.
Kevin Correia….sleeper?
I think there may be some value in rostering Kevin Correia in some NL only leagues. After a solid ’09 campaign, Correia was awful according to his surface stats – 5.40 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. So, what do I like about him? First of all, I’m not too worried about his transition from Sand Diego to Pittsburgh as Correia’s career home/road splits aren’t much different despite the fact that he called a couple of pitcher’s parks his home prior to coming to Pittsburgh. Secondly, Correia wasn’t nearly as awful as it seemed last season. His strand rate was 3.6 percentage points lower than his career average, and his HR/FB% was 4.7 percentage points higher than his career average. Correia’s bad luck in these categories probably cost him almost a full run on his ERA. Meanwhile, one could argue that Correia is actually getting better. His GB% grew for the second straight season (38.2%/44.8/48.9) and is now above average. His K/9 did the same: 5.40/6.45/7.14. Correia also posted a career best 4.19 xFIP last season. The WHIP isn’t pretty but we have Correia locked in for around 140 K’s, double digit wins and a mid 4 ERA’s which could be useful in some deep NL leagues.
Other Notes
Matt Thornton RP (CHW) – Yesterday, Joe indicated that he felt Thornton would be the right pick ahead of Chris Sale if you were looking for saves. Looks like Joe’s inclination was correct as Ozzie Guillen indicated yesterday that Thornton would get the first crack at the job. Thornton certainly has the skills to get the job done: an upwards trending K/9 (8.17/8.79/10.29/10.82/12.02) that can now be considered elite and a consistent ability to keep the ball in the yard as seen in his HR/9 numbers over the same years (.83/.64/.67/62/.45). Thornton’s outstanding 2.67 ERA last season is supported by his 2.14 FIP and 2.62 xFIP. His ERA the past three seasons (2.67/2.74/2.67) make Thornton a safe fantasy closed option if Guillen does indeed give him the job.
Ivan Nova SP (NYY) – Nova threw six no hit innings yesterday. It’s just Spring so I wouldn’t get too excited. He could be a play in AL leagues as his propensity to keep the ball in the park should lead to a mid 4’s ERA, which will turn into victories with the run support the Yankees will likely get him. Still, Nova’s minor league K rates indicate there’s not much upside here, at least not in the short term.
Brandon Belt 1B (SF) – Belt was my top pick in my local league’s minor league draft. He moved through four levels of professional ball last year, starting with rookie ball and ending at AAA. All in all he hit .352/.455/.620 in 595 plate appearances with 20 HR. By all accounts, Belt looked fantastic in the Arizona Fall League, and our very own David Regan has him ranked as the number four overall hitting prospect. With an expected arrival time this June, Belt should be at the top of your minor league draft list, particularly if you are looking for help this season.
Ian Kennedy SP (ARZ) – Kennedy was named Arizona’s Opening Day starter. While he failed in NY, Kennedy has become a popular sleeper since moving to the NL. I don’t get all the love, though. He did post a solid 2.4 K/BB ratio last season, but Kennedy’s FB tendencies (just a career GB% of 36.9) will hurt him in hitter friendly Chase Field. Also, Kennedy’s 3.80 ERA was aided significantly by a lucky BABIP of .256, which also kept the WHIP down. There’s no doubt that that number will rise this year, leading to an increase in Kennedy’s ratios.
Brian Roberts 2B (BAL) – Brian Roberts say his back feels better after taking swings from both sides of the plate yesterday. This is good news in the short term for fantasy owners, but I wonder if Roberts’ back is going to plague him all year. Plus, at age 33, you wonder how a speedster with declining power will age. Roberts was an overrated roto option when he was healthy, but now that he has back problems and aging, a 9th round ADP means there is very little chance Roberts will be a valuable fantasy pick.
Danny Espinosa 2B (WAS) – People who like Espinosa as a nice sleeper option at 2B can breathe a sigh of relief. It looked like the start of his season was in doubt when he fouled a ball off his foot on Tuesday. X-Rays came back negative, though, and Espinosa is only considered day to day.
Mike Stanton OF (FLA) – The young and supremely powerful rookie has been dealing with a quadriceps injury this Spring. However, he is expected to play in a minor league game on Saturday, and this would put Stanton on track to be in the Opening Day lineup. This is obviously good news for owners. Stanton will strikeout a ton, but his upside far outweighs any risk that comes along with it. Consider that Stanton posted a .248 ISO and 22.9 HR/FB% as a 20 YO rookie. His power is off the charts.
Scott Downs RP (LAA) – If you picked up Downs as a spec reliever hoping he would close or for holds, feel free to drop him. The left handed reliever broke his toe and could miss up to a month as a result. It’s not a ton of time missed, but if Fernando Rodney struggles early the Angels will have to turn to someone else, resulting in a missed opportunity for Downs.
Rick Porcello SP (DET) – I want to get excited about Porcello as some scouts believe his stuff projects to an increase in K rate down the line. If that came to fruition, Porcello could be a legitimate fantasy contributor when you factor in his control (2.10 BB/9 in 2010) and ability to induce ground balls (52.2 career GB%). Unfortunately, I just don’t see it happening this season. We saw no improvement in that department from Porcello’s rookie season (4.69 K/9) to last year (4.65 K/9). Even more glaring was the fact that Porcello’s already substandard swinging strike percentage of 7% dropped to 5.9%. He just doesn’t generate enough swing and misses for the time being to be a fantasy consideration in standard leagues.
