Preseason Fantistics Analysis - Wednesday, March 16, 2011
New York Yankees
The rotation saga in the Bronx (or Tampa for now) continues as we try to figure out how the Yankees plan on wrapping up the back-end of their rotation. As I mentioned last week, the first three spots are written in pen with CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, and AJ Burnett. After that, we’re talking some serious battles for the final two spots that involve some old familar names (and I do mean old). Basically we have four pitchers vying for two spots. Ivan Nova (24), Sergio Mitre (30), Freddy Garcia (35), and former Cy Young winner Bartolo Colon (38). Mitre has already experienced some spring training injuries with an oblique strain and has just 5 innings under his belt this spring, so he seems like the biggest long shot at this point.
Bartolo Colon is probably ranked third on this list, but he is certainly making his case and not making it any easier on the other two. He’s having a very good spring, but his regular season numbers since his Cy Young year of 2005 tell the real story. From 2006 through 2009 (he sat out all of last season rehabbing his right elbow), Colon was 14-21 with a 1.51 WHIP, 5.18 ERA, HR/9 of 1.5, and a K/BB of 2.4 in 257 total IP. I can’t see the Yankees taking this risk and he’s certainly not worth the risk on any fantasy team.
Freddy Garcia’s most recent performance in 2010 shows a little glimmer of hope, but still a little too risky for any mixed league consideration. He posted a 1.38 WHIP, 4.64 ERA, 4.77 FIP and an overall 12-6 record. The biggest changed in Freddy Garcia’s 2010 versus the rest of his career was the huge drop in K/BB from his 9-year average of 2.55 to last year’s rate of 1.98. The big reason is his change in approach, focusing more on the changeup (22.8% of the time versus his career average of 14.0%) and less on the fastball (30.2% vs. 51.3% career average with a drop in velocity year over year). That did yield a higher GB% and lower FB% (which would be the only way he could be successful in Yankee Stadium with a ballpark factor of 84), but not enough to make this attractive for 2011.
More next Wednesday on Nova as we get closer to the start of the season.
Milwaukee Brewers
If you miss out on the few highly rated catchers in the draft, it can be tricky to find a steady fit throughout the season. That’s the beauty of being able to write about guys like Jonathan Lucroy. Normally, a guy who posted a .628 OPS in 297 PA would be brushed aside. But a 24-year old catcher with a good contact rate you say? Well, I guess then he’s at least worth one more look before draft day. Despite Lucroy’s low OPS, he still managed to put up a WAR of 0.9 in 2010 with a BABIP of .287 and a contact % of 85.2%. Before his service at the big league level in 2010, he played in 125 games in Double-A in 2009 and posted a .380 OBP, .418 SLG, and a BB/K of 1.18.
Let’s be honest, he’s still way down on the overall catcher rankings. But everyday playing time at least makes him NL-only worthy and a cheap prospect gamble very late in deep leagues. Mixed leagues can stay away from him for now.
Chicago White Sox
Another week in the books and we don’t have any significant updates on the closer situation. Manager Ozzie Guillen recently hinted that he will pick a closer by the start of the season. Whether its Matt Thornton or Chris Sale remains to be seen. If you’re drafting before the announcement is made, a late gamble on Thornton is my personal opinion on the right pick.
But for today, let’s take a quick look at the offense and the potential power this lineup can generate. When you’re talking HR on this team, it begins with Adam Dunn. The Donkey moves from the Nationals to the White Sox and carries with him one of the most consistent HR lines of any player in baseball. With the Reds, he posted 4 straight years of exactly 40 HRs. In two yers with the Nats, he hit exactly 38 each year. That’s 10 seasons with an AB/HR of 14.1. At 31 and a move to even a more hitter friendly ballpark at U.S. Cellular, the common reaction is to predict a huge jump in HR. We have him predicted at exactly 40 once again, as we continue to see a steady increase in his strikeout rate over the last 3 years of 31.7%, 32.4%, and 35.7%. An equivalent drop was seen in his BB% of 18.7%, 17.4%, and 11.9% which led to one of his worst OBP years of his career in 2010 of .356, but one of his higher AVG years of .260. A better lineup should help protect him more and I expect a rebound in OBP, a drop in average and a slight increase in power. His ADP is about 5.0 right now and just squeeks into the top-10 1B rankings.
1. Chris Young (SP - Mets) - Remember Chris Young? The former all-star who once had a 3.12 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with the Padres? Well, that was only back in 2007, but unfortunately injuries have plagued him through his prime and he has only pitched a total of 198 innings since that year. If he’s healthy this year (and he’s looked decent in spring training thus far), we could be sitting on a (wait for it) fantasy sleeper. He will be the number 4 starter in the Mets rotation and at 31, should still have plenty of life left in the tank. We have him forecasted for a 3.76 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 118 K’s, but it will all be based on if he can stay healthy.
2. Chad Qualls (RP - Padres) - Somebody has to write about Holds and middle relief, right? Well, here’s the one middle relief post of the day. Chad Qualls is having a decent spring training and his manager recently went on record saying he things Qualls is going to have a good year. Well, that boost of confidence is nice, but just how many holds will Qualls earn in 2011? The former closer had a rough 2010 campagin with a 7.32 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 1.80 WHIP, and a .386 BABIP. His LOB% dropped to an all time low of just 53% compared to a 72% career average. We have him forecasted for 16 holds (maybe he can get to 20), but he shouldn’t be considered in the top 20 of holds guys at this stage.
3. Carlos Santana (C - Indians) - Spring Training stats rarely mean anything, but it was nice to see Santana’s bat show up on Tuesday. He was 3-for-3 with a double, bringing his spring to 6-for-21. As far as catchers go, Santana is near the top after Joe Mauer and Brian McCann. His ADP is trending around the 9th round, which should be excellent catcher value. In his first full year in the big leagues, Santana should be good for 20 HR, 80 RBI, 80 R, and a .280+ average. His main source of struggles in 2010, despite a solid BB/K of 1.28, was his splits against lefties. Against righties, Santana hit .314 with a 1.0002 OPS. Agaisnt lefties, he was a .146 hitter with a .582 OPS. If he can normalize that just a bit, he has the potential to be an elite fantasy player.
4. Danny Espinosa (2B - Nationals) - Espinosa had to be carried off the field yesterday after he fouled a ball hard off his foot. He’ll have X-Rays today to determine the extent of the damage, but it certainly didn’t look good. The 23-year old Espinosa was set for his first full season and had the potential for a 20-20 season, but now the start of the season may be in jeopardy. Stay tuned to the news reports on this one and be ready to adjust your draft boards as needed. The alternatives in Washington would be Alberto Gonzalez or Jerry Hairston, but they certainly wouldn’t be alternatives for your fantasy team.
5. Ian Stewart (3B - Rockies) - Stewart could see his first start of the spring on Wednesday as he rebounds from a sprained MCL. He says he feels healthy, but he’ll get tested right away against lefty CJ Wilson. Stewart has big time power potential, but has been largely inconsistent in his career, especially against lefties. He’s a late round 3B option (~20.0 ADP), but the Rockies have alternatives (Ty Wigginton) from the right side of the plate if the 25-year-old Stewart struggles again with consistency.
6. Jon Rauch (RP - Blue Jays) - This is turning out to be the preseason of the closer. There are a lot of 9th inning jobs up for grabs and Toronto is right in the mix. Potential closers Octavio Dotel and Frank Francisco both have their own injuries, which leaves the door open for former closer Jon Rauch. He saved 21 games for the Twins last season and has assumed that role about 3 times in his career (formerly with the Nationals in 2007 and 2008). He has bounced around a lot over the last few years, but he has a decent chance to pick up some saves this year if these injuries keep the other two out of action. He’s worth a flier late in drafts until an announcement is officially made by manager John Farrell.
7. Brett Anderson (SP - A’s) - Anderson has been roughed up this spring, allowing 7 ER in just 14.0 IP to date. But let’s try to put aside a small sample in spring training and focus on some indicators that could make Brett Anderson a mid-teen round fantasy pick. Anderson finished 2010 strong. After returning from an injury on July 30th, Anderson made 13 starts and posted a 2.98 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and a K/BB of 2.94. We’re predicting a nice year for Anderson with a 1.24 WHIP, 3.39 ERA, and a 14 W season. His K/9 is low with a 6.0 last year and the same forecasted for 2011, so be sure to supplement your roster with K’s elsewhere if you go with a guy like Anderson.
8. Wilson Valdez (2B - Phillies) - With it all but official that superstar Chase Utley will begin the season on the disabled list, it looks like the Philllies will go with Wilson Valdez as their starting 2B. Valdez is having a nice spring hitting .455 with 33 AB under his belt, but there isn’t much value here other than a stopgap until Utley returns. Valdez has a career .615 OPS and really doesn’t offer anything other than playing time at this point.
9. Grady Sizemore (OF - Indians) - Sizemore is be in the lineup on Sunday for the first time this spring. He’s still recovering from knee surgery that made him miss most of 2010. He’s still questionable (if not doubtful) to start the season on time, but that could make him a valuable fantasy sleeper on draft day. It wasn’t that long ago that Sizemore had 1st/2nd round fantasy value and if he can return healthy, we could see him post a 25+ HR season. Depending on how much he favors the knee will determine if he can post a 25/25 season and really elevate his fantasy value. For now, a late-teen round value for Sizemore is a nice risk/reward place to pick him in mixed leagues.
10. Andrew Bailey (RP - A’s) - Bailey’s official diagnosis is a strained right forearm. That’s actually decent news for Bailey, who made the popular visit to Dr. James Andrews back in the fall to have his elbow surgery. There’s no timetable for his return just yet, but the A’s seemed to be relieved that it wasn’t his elbow again. Brian Fuentes seems like the logical candidate to take over the save opportunities if Bailey isn’t ready for opening day (which seems like a likely scenario at this point).
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