Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Red Sox – Salty draws more attention this spring as the Red Sox primary catcher with the ancient and venerable Jason Variteck backing him up. The Red Sox chased Salty like a jilted lover before landing him last summer. In that the past (Edgar Renteria, Julio Lugo, J.D. Drew for example) Theo’s love for a particular player has proven to be somewhat blind. It’s obvious what he sees here however.
Jarrod has exhibited decent zone control, if not great contact ability, throughout his pro career, which is littered double-digit walk rate percentages. That hasn’t slipped much at the MLB level. He has walked 8.7% over a scattered 899 ABs over parts of three seasons. He strikes out a lot (30.9% at the MLB level) and will not hit for average (.248 with a .330 BHIP%), but he does have some pop and may be able to turn that into some productivity at Fenway, and in the Red Sox lineup.
The sheer number of ABs he’ll see this year makes him viable, especially if you find 13 -15 HRs and 50 or so RBI useful from your #2 catcher (where he should be slotted on your roster). And that production should come at a reasonable price.
The caveats here are Jarrod's injury history which makes his playing time totals volatile, and by result, his production projections suspect. Given the amount of time he’ll spend catching this year, it’s reasonable to assume injuries will play a big role for him in 2011 as well.
I have defensive questions about him too, on a team that already has a hard time holding runners. The pitching staff is very happy with his work so far this spring and Terry Francona has praise his defensive progress, so we’ll see.
We are projecting .266/15/54. I see all of that as optimistic, but he’s capable of it if he’s sees the 380 ABs that our projected slashline is based on.
Jonathan Papelbon – Red Sox – There is much hand wringing in Northern New England over what is quite likely Jonathan Papelbon’s last season as the Red Sox closer. Most of the talk about Paps centers around his 3.90 ERA, his 8 blown saves, and 3.8/9 BB rate in 2010, as well as the continued development of Daniel Bard.
That’s a lot to talk about … His ERA was largely the result of his 68.7% LOB% which seems fairly neutral, but Jonathan has demonstrated an ability to post LOB% consistently in the high 80%s and low 90%s (88% or better in 4 of his 6 pro seasons) … His blown saves, a stat which often hinges on the very slim margin for error of a single run, are related to both of those issues as well.
His walk rate is a problem. It is in a 3-year decline starting with a 1.0/9 in 2008, to a 3.2/9 in 2009, to a 3.8 last year. Not good. I think that’s a symptom. I think the real problem is that hitters are making better contact.
On pitches inside the zone opponents contact rate has risen from 82.3% in ’08 to 83.3% in ’09, to 87.7% last year. That has forced Paps to the edges and outside of the zone. His zone% over the last three years has dropped from 54.5% in ’08, to 51.1%, on ’09, to 46.2% last year. And that is a problem in the AL East where hitters grind pitchers into dust.
Another divisional problem is familiarity. The Red Sox have had good success with Mo Rivera for years. That’s not a performance issue with Mo as much as it is good hitters seeing a good pitcher almost a dozen times a year for 5 years. They know how to attack him. Hitters bring Papelbon up in the zone now, making him come in the zone, and they are more aware of what to expect when he does come in.
The bottom line here is that while the Paps of 2006 and 2007 may be a thing of the past, he’s still a very good pitcher. Jonathan says he’s going to mix his “slutter” a bit more this year and a wrinkle won’t hurt. His LOB% will rebound. He’ll still walk more than you’d like to see and he’ll still blow some saves. He’ll be human.
We are projecting 40 saves, 2.77/1.20. Nothing wrong with that. I will warn however that there’s a possibility that Papelbon will be moved before the end of the season. Bard is ready to close and the Red Sox enter the season with a need for a right-handed-hitting OF bat. And there’s the possibility of a significant injury somewhere in the lineup as well, which could get the Red Sox looking at moving their closer at the deadline.
Bryce Harper – Nationals – They teased us for a day or so, but the Nationals assigned Bryce Harper to their minor league camp over the weekend. He’ll start the year in Low A Hagerstown. You’ve been warned … Helmets for the women and children and close your shutters on the ballpark side of the house.
The tendency is to equate Harper with Stephen Strasburg who was a once-in-a-generation-level prospect. Harper is a great prospect but he doesn’t rise to that level. He is however highly advanced for his age which is going to feed the hype for the next year or two.
Bryce has off-the-charts power, ungodly bat speed, and he is going to terrorize under-developed pitchers as he works through the lower levels. His raw physical skills are going to carry him a long way, but hopefully he’s not going to be happy with that, and he’s going to learn the game while that happens. I am not going to project him right now, it’s just too early, but let’s leave it as I’d be very surprised if he’s not an MLB #3 or #4 hitter eventually.
I am still thinking he’s 3 years out, but it’s very possible he lands in AA sometime early next year, if not even this summer, and once he hits AA all bets are off. Wooden bats don’t seem to be an issue. I want to see his approach to a high-level breaking pitch, and I want to see what happens when he reaches pitchers who have the ability to consistently hit any holes that are uncovered in his swing along the way.
This one is going to be fun to watch.
Mike Morse – Nationals – Mike Morse could prove to be a high-value pick for many teams this year, as he was last year, if he was drafted at all in your league. He hit .289/.589 last year with 15 HRs in 266 ABs. He had the tail wins of a .330 BHIP% and a staggering 19.5% HR/FB% but he demonstrated some legitimate pop and he has validated that demonstration so far this spring.
Mike slugged .625 vs LHP last year but his lefty/righty splits are balanced enough to make him an everyday candidate. He hit .287/.466/.806 vs RHP last year (.295/.625/.999 v. LHP).
Mike is in a catfight for PT in the Nat’s OF but he should prevail. The big question is in projecting how many ABs he’ll get this year. Mike is capable of 20+ HRs if he gets 400 ABs. We are projecting .272/19/52 in 380 ABs. I am not going to dispute that but it may require more gains on his part this year.
I go back to his 19.5% HR/FB%. Normalize that to around 11% this year and the climb to 20 HRs is much more uphill. And keep in mind he’s going to get more attention this year in the pitching meetings. I also think it’s fair to say he still has to prove he can make an adjustment.
All of that being said, his price in most leagues is going to be low which could make him a bit of a value on draft day.
Nate McLouth – Braves - Nate McLouth's injury problems so far this spring do not bode well for 2011. There’s some theory to suggest that a sluggish spring and a string of nicks and dings last year contributed to his beastly campaign in 2010.
It’s hard to lipstick the pig of a .190/.322 season, even with the injuries, and a .221 BHIP%. This is especially true since 2009, which while decent, was less than expected out of Nate, and showed the start of what has become some very significant erosion in his BA, his contact rates, and his power.
Nate is in his prime and has somewhat of a track record to draw upon, even if it’s not too specific. His BHIP% will rebound and so will his HR/FB% (7.5% last year after rather normalized 10.9% and 11.4% rates in the previous two years). I think a 15/15 season is a pretty safe bet, but after that things get murky.
With 500 ABs I think he can approach 18 HRs and with luck he might even take a run at 20 again, but if the Braves bat him in their #2 slot for any period of time that’s probably going to change his approach and suppress his HR total.
Our projections reflect that at 15 HRs with 18 steals and a .256 BA over 508 ABs. I am a little more optimistic than our draft software … but not much.
Chase Utley – Phillies – Today’s Chase Utley episode is brought to you by the word “chondromalacia” and the letters “W”, “T”, and “F” … Chase Utley has been diagnosed with patellar tendinitis and chondromalacia. We are somewhat familiar with patellar tendinitis and know the finicky nature of recovery from it. Chondromalacia is just as finicky if not worse.
Chondromalacia is often referred to as “runner’s knee”. It is an irritation of the lining of cartilage on the underside of the kneecap. That’s more than you need to know … What you need to know however is that the treatment for both conditions isn’t much more advanced than the cure for the common cold … Chase needs to rest, and heal, and slowly regain strength and address possible underlying cause though physical therapy. Oh and a little chicken soup wouldn’t hurt. That however doesn't look like the approach that Chase or the Phillies are going to choose at the outset. Therefore this condition is likely going to be a long haul … daily updates filled with different ways of saying “ I don’t know when he’s going to be ready”.
No one knows now, no one is going to know for a while. We’ll update you on every version of “I don’t know”, of course, but the take away point here is that you, and the Phillies, need to be formulating a Plan B. Utley maintains he’s going to be ready sooner rather than later, but if he chooses to try and tough it out with an early return that will likely mean diminished performance and a lingering problem.
Of course there’s a good possibility this is going to be over at some point. And chances are that Chase is going to have a pretty productive run at some point this year as well. The range of possibilities is wide, so we’ll have to stay on top of the situation. In keeper leagues you have to take the long-term view and be ready to accept a bargain if he becomes one in your draft this year.
Pablo Sandoval – Giants –Pablo Sandoval hit his 3rd HR of the spring on Monday. Pablo’s power dip in 2010 didn’t have much in the way of negative supporting indicators, so we can reasonably expect a bounce back to some degree. The problem here is that a few pops here during the preseason is only going to drive his price up. You have to pay attention to this and keep your head. We are projecting .286/27/86 and Sandoval probably has some 30+ HR seasons ahead of him but something closer to 18 HRs is just as possible.
Andrew Bailey – A’s – Andrew Bailey left Monday’s game with what was originally described at elbow “discomfort” but after the game Bob Geren described the injury as “tightness in the forearm area”. This didn’t come completely out of the blue. Andrew’s had the usual “normal” soreness in his forearm during ST.
I was going to work on the assumption that they were being cautious when they pulled him Monday and they will be cautious going forward and have him checked out. Then last night came word that he was going to be checked out by Dr. James Andrews ... three of the top 10 words you don’t want to hear used in relation to an MLB pitcher. Feel free to be worried but stay tuned.
Aubrey Huff – Giants – Aubrey Huff is making a good spring case that his .290/26/.506 in 2010 was not a mirage. He went 3- for -3 with his second spring HR yesterday. Huff’s .303 BHIP% last year was level. His 14.4% HR/FB% was only nominally elevated. His numbers seemed to have a solid, repeatable base of support. The outlier last year was his 12.4% BB rate, a career high … by about 50%. He’s unlikely to repeat that but I am not sure how it would affect his power totals. He’s produced more power on a normal BB rate.
We are projecting .278/23/79, which is a reasonable repeat. Of course he’s in the 5th year of a repeating on-year, off-year pattern and those drive me nuts. I really don’t understand why those patterns start and why they stop. So I am just going to mention it and ignore it. I think his 2011 is pretty predicable. Pay accordingly.
Mark Rogers – Brewers – Mark Rogers figures to have a shot at the innings that Zack Greinke will miss due to injury at the start of the year. But he isn’t exactly seizing the opportunity. Of course he’s been battling some tightness in his surgically-repaired shoulder so maybe we should just focus on the fact he reported good response from his shoulder in his first three outs of work this spring on Monday. Mark gave up two runs on three hits including a majestic Pablo Sandoval homerun.
The Maine native was the 5th overall pick in the 2004 draft but he’s battled shoulder problems throughout his career, leaving him with good, but not compelling, stuff. He has three serviceable pitches but little control, which leaves him less than viable as a major league starter.
Michael Pineda – Mariners – Reports indicate that with Nate Robertson lined up for elbow surgery, Michael Pineda appears to have control of the 5th starting slot.
Even taking into account Aroldis Chapman, Pineda may be my current favorite pitching prospect.
After a 8-1 campaign in AA last year, with a 2.22 ERA, .236 OBA and 9.1/9 K rate over 77 IP, Michael was promoted to AAA where he pitched 62.1 IP with a .235 OBA, 11.0/9 K rate.
People will focus on his 4.76 ERA in AAA last year but Michael suffered from a 66.8% LOB% and 12 of the 33 runs he allowed in AAA came in just two starts, meaning he pitched to a 3.41 ERA over his remaining 10 starts which sound about right given his 1.14 WHIP. Michael deserved a few MLB innings last September but at 139.1 IP the M’s probably felt he had reached his limit, after elbow issues in 2009.
Signed out the Dominican Republic as a 16 year old in 2005, Pineda throws low-to-mid 90s with a natural boring action in towards right-handers. He makes that play up with a nice cutter that is hard to distinguish otherwise, but moves the other way. Michael's change is coming along nicely, and he throws a slider on occasion but he’s had trouble differentiating that pitch from his cutter and it often loses its cut and depth
I think Michael can be effective out of the box in the majors. We are projecting 9 wins, a 3.84 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over 176 IP which should probably be his limit this year. I like his long-term prospects as well, and although he may not be a prototypical power #1, I think he at least has front-of –the-rotation capabilities. Still I see him more as a #2.
Travis Hafner – Indians – Travis Hafner had a bit of a day on Monday with a pair of doubles and a single in 4 trips. Hafner's power numbers have been in free fall since his .308/42/.659 in 2006 and nothing indicates a reverse of those trends. Of course 450 ABs would make a difference but that’s a number he hasn’t reached in since 2007. We are projecting 17 HRs and a .271 BA, based on 438 ABs. The problem is that you could just as easily get 100 less ABs out of him. Hafner could make a nice end of the draft reserve player, but don’t chase. He has to come at a bargain price.
Neftali Feliz – Rangers – Neftali Feliz told reporters yesterday afternoon that he now wants to be a starter for the Rangers. He’s been stretching out, Yesterday he threw 59 pitches in 4 innings against the Dodgers, allowing a run on three hits. He then went to the bullpen and threw 28 more pitches.
After a sit down with pitching coach Mike Maddux Feliz has embraced his new role. There’s still some division within the organization as to where Feliz should spent 2011. Given his talent I really don’t see how someone could make the argument that 170 IP from him isn’t better than 60. This issue will be whether he can stand up to a starter role, but I think he has the physicality to do it.
This just in, Neftali going to be good, probably very good as a starter. But as you project your roster keep in mind that it is very unlikely he throws 200 IP this year, if the Rangers are smart. In fact even if he starts the year as a starter I could see the Rangers shifting him to the pen later in the year to stretch him to the end of the year as the Rangers try to repeat in the AL.
Jake Peavy – White Sox – Peavy got hit around a bit on Monday allowing 3 runs, 6 hits, including a HR and a walk in 4 IP against the Padres. This is one off outing after two good ones. Observers say they are impressed with Jakes stuff this spring, and there is quiet optimism in the White Sox camp. Projecting Jake at this point isn’t much more scientific than throwing darts. We are projecting 13 wins 3.85, 1.24 over 188 IP. Maybe ... but I wouldn’t pay for that.
