As we enter into the third full week of spring training games, we’re right at the precipice of when spring training starts to become a bit more meaningful. We’ll have the first round of roster cuts this week, as minor league spring training games will get going, and we’ll begin to see the starters work deeper into games. While all the small sample size caveats will still apply with the spring training data from here on out, we’ll at least start to see some more consistency in the level of competition players face. It doesn’t provide certainty with regards to the data we’re looking at, but it does provide a layer of more relevance. It also coincides with the time most owners begin drafting. I’ve already participated in a handful of my drafts and I’ll try to infuse some of the take-aways into the notes here today. If you have leftover questions from the notes this morning or want timely thoughts throughout the season about fantasy baseball, come join the party on twitter! You can follow me @DrewDinkmeyer (http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer - for the full link) all season long!
With that out of the way, let’s move onto the notes. I’ll begin by covering the Cubs, Reds, and Rockies as I have all pre-season.
All is Wells with the Cubs 4th SP slot, not so much with the 5th
Pardon the horrible pun, but after throwing another four scoreless innings against the Indians on Thursday, Randy Wells looks to be locking into the 4th spot in the rotation. He’s now thrown 9 scoreless innings in his 3 appearances with a tidy 6:2 K:BB ratio while allowing 8 base-runners in total.
Whether he was actually ever in danger of losing a spot in the first place is up for debate (some think the competition was a motivational ploy for Wells who admitted to losing focus last season), but what isn’t up for debate is Wells skill-set. After a rookie campaign that saw Wells post a 3.88 FIP over 165 1/3 innings, Wells backed it up with a 3.93 FIP in 194 1/3 innings in 2010. The path he took to get there was a tad different between the two seasons as he struck more guys out, while also walking a few more, in 2010; but the skills were still more than strong enough to be a fine #4 starter. With over 370 innings of professional data and solid, if unspectacular, peripherals (6.14 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, 47.6% GB Rate), Wells is a fine mid-rotation starter. The lack of upside will keep his value down on draft day, but for those in deep leagues Wells is a solid bet for a 4.00 ERA, low 1.3’s WHIP, double digit Wins and about 150 K’s. He’s the definition of a match-ups play in traditional leagues and someone who will quietly out-produce a good 15-25 “higher upside” SP’s that get drafted in your leagues.
With Wells likely solidifying his role in the 4th spot, Carlos Silva, Andrew Cashner, and Casey Coleman are engaged in a tickle fight for the 5th spot.
Silva was the favorite coming in, but he’s been ripped to the tune of 11 ER’s in just 3 1/3 innings. I noted in this space a few weeks back that I thought Silva could be a late NL-only sleeper as I viewed Cashner as minimal competition for the role, and expected the Cubs to be interested in showcasing Silva in the final year of his deal. However with Silva pitching this poorly, it’s opened the door again. Cashner threw 4 solid innings on Thursday but it was against a pretty inept Indians lineup. He did strike out 3, walking 1, and allowed a solo HR for the lone ER. The outing lowered his spring ERA to 4.50, but he’s now allowed 13 base-runners in just 8 innings, while posting a meager 4:4 K:BB ratio. Casey Coleman is the third wheel in this ugly competition and he’s allowed 3 ER’s in his 3 innings of work so far this spring.
If Silva can get things back within reason, the job should be his to lose. If not, it opens the door for a host of candidates with Cashner being the most likely option (non-roster invitees Todd Wellemeyer and Braden Looper could also work their way in). Cashner has the “prospect” tag to him and has some strong performance at the minor league level to lean on, but with just 177 minor league innings under his belt I don’t believe he’s ready to be a successful starter in the big leagues. His 5.0 BB/9 and 1.3 HR/9 numbers in 54 innings out of the pen last year certainly don’t suggest it either.
For fantasy purposes, the entire situation should be avoided until someone separates themselves. At this point, Silva and Cashner are just fliers at the end of NL-only drafts, with Cashner having the far higher upside and Silva being the more likely producer. (Tags that neither look like they’re ready to reach right now)
A battle for the leadoff spot in Cincinnati
Only with Dusty Baker at the helm could you have two guys battling for the leadoff spot who posted OBPs of .329 and .332 last season, but that’s where we are as Drew Stubbs and Brandon Phillips are squaring off this spring. Phillips will bat 2nd if not awarded the leadoff spot, so his value will be effected minimally here. The more interesting case would be with Drew Stubbs. Stubbs received 64% of his plate appearances last year in the bottom 3rd of the order. As a result he got just 583 PA’s in 150 games, just 3.87 PA per game. Phillips, who spent over 78% of his time in the top two spots in the lineup, averaged 4.43 PA per game. Over the course of the season, we’re talking about an extra 85-100 PA’s, or somewhere around another 75 AB’s for Stubbs if he were to hit leadoff. Based on his per AB numbers last year that would mean an extra 13 Runs, 3 HR’s, 11 RBI’s, and 4 SB’s.
Now truth be told, the Reds don’t really have an obvious solution to the leadoff quandry as there only regulars to post an OBP over .340 were also all their best power hitters (or were a catcher). Stubbs has some upside to his OBP (career .364 minor league OBP) as his 9.5% BB Rate last year was adequate for a leadoff hitter. The problem is the high K Rate (32.7%) limits the batting average portion of the OBP equation. He does have the speed part of the equation that Baker places a high emphasis on and due to his willingness to at least take a walk, looks like the leading candidate early on.
If Stubbs can win the leadoff spot our 540 AB projection may get a boost up. With an 11th rd ADP, Stubbs looks like a steal. A 20-30 candidate from a season ago, with upside beyond that due to more PA’s and growth (age 26), Stubbs shouldn’t be lasting beyond the Top 100 or so picks, let alone the Top 125.
Update on the Reds 5th starter battle:
As we discussed before the 5th starter spot was going to come down to the two Reds candidates that battled it out last season: Travis Wood and Mike Leake. Leake won the job last year as Wood battled command issues, but Wood looked like the better pitcher when they both got acquanted at the big league level. The early results in camp are showing more of the same.
Leake has struck out just 1 batter in his 5 innings of work while allowing 12 base-runners and 5 ER’s. Wood hasn’t exactly been lights out, but he has been better; allowing 8 base-runners and just 2 ER’s in his 5 innings, while posting a 4:2 K:BB Ratio. There’s still a long ways to go in this battle, but we expected Wood to win it and he’s emerging as the leading candidate early on. If Wood can get that spot, we view him as a nice bargain in NL-Only drafts as a Top 40 SP option going outside the Top 45 right now.
Rockies raving about Seth Smith this spring:
Whether its his new-found ability to hit LH’s or rediscovering his all fields approach, the praise coming from Jim Tracy with regards to Seth Smith has been loud and consistent. Smith is scheduled to get the majority of AB’s in RF as the LH hitting part of a platoon, but from recent comments made by Jim Tracy it appears he may be showing enough to get into an everyday role. “He’s in the 2009 Seth Smith frame of mind. He’s back to realizing what makes him good as an offensive player – which is hitting the ball from the left-field foul line to the right-field foul line.”.
That 2009 Seth Smith was the guy who hit .298/.378/.510 in 335 AB’s. Perhaps more importantly with those numbers were the fact that Smith hit .259/.368/.500 against LHP in 2009. If Smith really IS back to that 2009 version and has little competition for playing time in RF, look out! We’ve got Smith pegged for a .270-67-19-67-3 line in 430 AB’s, which if bumped up to a full-time 500 AB season would be a solid .270-78-22-78-4 line with room for a 80-25-80 type line with more AB’s. For someone who isn’t getting drafted in many mixed leagues, he’s an excellent late round flier worth stashing during spring training to see if he can earn himself a full share of playing time.
An update on the 2B position battle:
Heading into spring training it looked like the 2B battle for the Rockies would be between two different, but equally interesting, fantasy options in Eric Young Jr. and Jose Lopez. But with Young Jr. still dealing with soreness from a leg injury, Jonathan Herrera has entered the competition by hitting .348/.423/.522 through his first 23 AB’s. Jose Lopez hasn’t helped the situation by hitting just .190/.227/.190 through his first 21 AB’s.
This is about the worst possible situation for fantasy owners as Herrera, a career .280/.346/.365 hitter in the minor leagues doesn’t possess great power or speed (just 26 career minor league HR’s, and just 5 SB’s in over 510 PA’s between AAA and MLB last season). Herrera did run a bit earlier in his minor league career but it hasn’t translated at the major league level (3 SB’s in 323 PA’s). With limited bat skills and not much willingness to run he won’t be considered much of a fantasy option if he is able to win the job.
There is still plenty of time for this to sort itself out and while I remain high on Jose Lopez as a sleeper, Herrera’s hot start is a bit of a concern. Keep an eye on things as we progress into the 2nd half of spring training. With Eric Young Jr. now looking to get back into the mix, the AB distribution will be particularly interesting to watch over the next 10-14 days.
Ian Stewart could start the year on the DL? Hello Ty Wigginton!
Some may be wondering why I haven’t been including ole Ty Wigginton in the 2B battle and the reason quite simply is Wigginton can’t reasonably play 2B anymore. Of course with a career UZR/150 approaching -16, most would say Wigginton can’t play 3B either, but teams appear more comfortable with Wigginton at the corners than in the middle of the field. Wigginton continues to hit for pop (topping 20 HR’s in 3 of the last 4 years) whenever he plays and with a chance to start the season as the opening day 3B, Wigginton is worth a look late in mixed leagues for his positional flexibility (1B, 2B, 3B eligible in most formats) and his pop. He’ll eventually return to a reserve role when Ian Stewart is healthy, working primarily as a backup/platoon 1B/3B option for the Rockies this year, in a role that should net him 350+ AB’s and another run at 20 HR’s.
Notes from around the league:
Edinson Volquez (SP – CIN) – Volquez finally got his work visa issues cleared up and was able to make his spring debut in a big league game on Thursday. Volquez looked a little rusty against major league hitters as he allowed 2 hits and 2 BB’s while allowing an ER in 2 1/3 innings. He was scheduled to go 3 innings but struggled with command and had to be pulled early. He did strike out 2 batters flashing the great K Rate but the key this year will be the command. If Volquez can get the BB’s down to the low 4’s in terms of BB/9 (which is still quite bad), his combination of high GB Rate and great K Rate will make him a Top 40 SP with room for more.
Clayton Kershaw (SP – LAD) – Kershaw continued his stellar spring as he allowed just an unearned run over 4 1/3 innings against the Padres. He yielded 4 hits and 2 BB’s while striking out 3 and recording 8 ground outs. Kershaw’s never going to have elite command but after getting the BB Rate down to 3.57 BB/9 last season, he’s back in line with some of his minor league numbers. The one area he has more room for growth is in his GB Rate, which was on display on Thursday. Kershaw was consistently in the high 40%’s while in the minors but has posted just a 41.8% GB Rate so far. This isn’t exactly the worst thing for a pitcher pitching in spacious Chavez Revine, but the potential growth in the GB skill brings the ceiling even higher. We’re looking for another step forward for Kershaw as he gets a bit better luck in the W category. We rank him as the #4 SP in fantasy and believe he’s an utter steal with his current ADP. If you’re not getting Roy or Felix in rds 2 or 3, let Kershaw be your ace in rd 4 or 5.
Madison Bumgarner (SP – SF) – There are enough red flags coming into this season with Madison Bumgarner and enough helium to his draft value after a great playoff performance that I’ve kind of ignored Bumgarner’s spring, but yesterday’s start sure got my attention. Bumgarner was brilliant in his 4 innings against the Reds, allowing just one single and striking out 6. Bumgarner had a 70+ inning jump over his career high (when you factor in playoff innings) and had an ERA almost a full run lower than his expected ERA. Those are the big warning signs, but then you look at his playoff performance, in which his K/9 jumped to 7.8 K/9, while his BB Rates and GB Rates stayed strong and you wonder: “is there more upside from here?” I’m still trying to figure it out and after Bumgarner struggled through his first two starts I had kind of put him aside, but after yesterday’s great outing he’s back in focus with a 12:1 K:BB Ratio through his first 11 spring innings. His current ADP (top 150 overall) has a lot of improvement in skill built into him, so I still likely won’t end up with Bumgarner, but he’s got my attention.
Peter Bourjos (OF – LAA) – One of the big themes we’ve written about this year is the overvaluing of SB’s and their declining scarcity relative to power. Well one of the potential 30+ SB candidates this year who doesn’t seem to be overvalued is the guy manning CF in Anaheim: Peter Bourjos. Bourjos is an elite defensive CF who has little competition for playing time in LAA. He was atrocious in his major league debut last season hitting .204/.237/.381 in 181 AB’s, but did produce some interesting fantasy numbers racking up 10 SB’s and 6 HR’s in that time. With a career minor league line of .293/.346/.452 he’s more than just a defensive minded CF. He averaged 9 HR’s and 36 SB’s in 111 games his last 3 minor league seasons and has the potential for a 10-30 season at the big league level this year. Going undrafted in most mixed leagues, he’s someone to keep an eye on as we progress this spring. On Thursday he went 3-4 and is now 8-22 with 4 BB’s, 3 K’s, and 3 SB’s so far this spring. He’s a deep sleeper and someone I want on the cheap in AL-Only formats.
Justin Masterson (SP – CLE) – It wasn’t against the strongest of Cubs lineups as the Cubs only played 4 LH’s (Fukudome, Colvin, DeWitt, K. Hill) against Masterson and none of which are considered elite hitters, but it was a noteworthy outing. Masterson cruised through 3 innings against the Cubs as he didn’t allow a base-runner and struck out 5. Masterson’s year last year was characterized by improvement in his GB Rate and BB Rate while sacrificing some strikeouts. The problem continues to be an inability to get out LH batters. The split narrowed in 2010 (.681 OPS vs. RH, .784 OPS vs. LH, career - .626 OPS vs. RH, .814 OPS vs. LH), but the book is out on Masterson and opponents have loaded up their lineups with LHB. For his career Masterson has faced LHB’s in 53% of his PA’s and in 2010 that number rose to 55%. Teams know Masterson can’t get lefties out and they’re loading up against him. Until he can consistently get lefties out, he’s going to be a fantasy tease.
Roy Halladay (SP – PHI) – Even in spring training Halladay likes to set the pace in innings pitched. He went 6 innings on Thursday against the Yankees limiting them to just 4 singles, while striking out 2 and getting 9 ground outs. He’s averaged over 245 fantastic innings in each of the last three years and remains the clear cut #1 fantasy SP. Draft with confidence and don’t look back.
Erik Bedard (SP – SEA) – Bedard was just OK on Thursday against an Angels split squad as he allowed 3 hits, 1 ER and a BB in 2 2/3 innings of work. He did strike out 2 and for the spring has a 1.59 ERA and 8:2 K:BB ratio in 5 2/3 innings. I’m not concerned at all about Bedard’s performance, just his health. Whenever he’s been on the mound he’s been good and with 3 outings and no reported pain I’m now stashing anywhere I can. One of my biggest tips for those drafting early is to stash guys with upside, especially those playing in shallow mixed leagues. There will be plenty of guys like Bronson Arroyo, Jake Westbrook, and other low-risk/low-ceiling SP’s available on the wire during the season, but if healthy there won’t be an Erik Bedard. Take the chance now and hold through the spring to see if he can stay healthy.
Javier Vazquez (SP – FLA) – A fairly interesting tidbit from the Marlins pitching coach Randy St. Claire on Thursday regarding Javier Vazquez’s delivery and his velocity. St. Claire noted they’re making a change in his delivery to try to get more drive and power from his legs. St. Claire noted it’s a delivery that Vazquez used when in Atlanta and as they’re changing it they’re seeing some immediate results. “In his last two games, I've seen a better lower-half." "His numbers started to pick up, where he is touching 90-91, after it was 86-87 in his first game.” This is significant news and enough to make me take a peak at Vazquez’s next outing to see if the velocity can maintain. Everyone knows the difference between pitching in the spacious NL East vs. the compact parks in the AL East made Vazquez a different SP last year but the drop in velocity (from 91 to 88) was the bigger issue. Vazquez will get to pitch in a spacious home park this year that will help limit his biggest issue (the HR’s – 1.83 HR/9 last season, 1.20 HR/9 career), but to get the K Rate back where he’ll make a fantasy impact he’ll need to regain his velocity. Keep an eye to see if the new delivery can get him back closer to the 90’s.
Andrew Bailey (SP – OAK) – Bailey made his cactus league debut on Thursday and finished off a 1-2-3 inning with 2 strikeouts. Bailey’s been an elite closer the last few seasons but the drop in his K Rate last year was a bit concerning (9.8 K/9 to 7.7 K/9). The K Rate bounced back big in the 2nd half of the season (11.3 K/9 in last 12 IP) so there’s enough reason for optimism that I’ll write-off the poor early season K Rate. He has had a couple scares with elbow issues both last season and this season and the A’s brought in a number of capable closing options, so there is some risk here. That being said, as long as Bailey’s been healthy he’s been very good. I expect another run at 25-30 saves, though he’ll likely somewhat be limited on the upside by the history of nagging arm issues and the plethora of options in the A’s pen that can give Bailey off days.
Nate McLouth – (OF – ATL) – McLouth fits a pretty rare category as he’s a once valued fantasy commodity (perennial 20-20 candidate) who with one atrocious season has completely fallen off the map despite being in his prime years (age 29 season this year). This same thing happened with Alex Rios last season and while I don’t expect McLouth to rebound in the same way Rios did, it’s reasonable to throw out last season, which was really just two horrific months. He rebounded strongly in September (.273/.359/.527) in 55 AB’s and has started off strong this spring going 7-15 with a stellar 5:0 BB:K Ratio so far. McLouth was dealing with some pain in his shoulder which a cortisone shot appears to have taken care of, as he plans to return to the lineup on Saturday. He’s going to hit near the bottom of the lineup, which will limit his ability to contribute in the counting categories right away, but a guy with 20-20 track record still in his prime, largely going undrafted in mixed leagues? I think it’s gone a bit too far. Keep McLouth in mind as a back-end sleeper and a nice bounce-back candidate in NL Only leagues.
