Dodgers notes…
My first day out at Camelback Ranch here in Glendale, Arizona for Dodgers spring training was rather uneventful. A few quick observations on a couple key players / situations:
Jerry Sands (1B/OF) – Man-crushes…nothing wrong with them. I’m a huge Sands fan, as he’s been by far the most impressive Dodger in camp this spring. Wednesday, Sands got just one at-bat after taking over at first base for James Loney, but in his first pitch, Sands drove an inside fastball up the middle for a hard line drive single. He went to second on a wild pitch and scored on a sharp single to left field, showing good baserunning skills in beating the throw home. Sands entered the game batting .462 with a pair of home runs, so it was just more of the same. Loney is the first baseman this year, but Sands is going to have a spot in the lineup at some point this year after batting a combined .301/.395/.586 between Low-A and Double-A.
Jon Garland (SP-LAD) – Garland winced noticeably after a pitch in the second inning of Wednesday’s game against Seattle and was later diagnosed with an oblique injury. No word yet on the severity of the injury, but this reportedly leaves Garland on the DL to open the season.. He’s the No. 5 starter, so maybe the team can move things around, but if the team needs another starter, who do they turn to with Vicente Padilla also out with a forearm injury? Most likely, John Ely would get the call, he of the mania formerly known as “Elymania 2010”. Ely has been pretty solid this spring, but he’s no more than a stopgap.
Giants notes…
Rotation – Barring a huge meltdown, Madison Bumgarner is expected to open as the team’s No. 4 starter behind Lincecum/Cain/Sanchez. Barry Zito will be the No. 5 starter with the $126 million contract. Zito may actually be undervalued these days, as he’s taken a positive step forward the past two years after a dreadful 2008 (5.15 ERA, 6.0 K/9, 5.1 BB/9). Zito in fact may be the league’s best No. 5 starter, and while that is nothing to write home about given his salary, there are worse guys to throw $1 at in NL-only formats.
Outfield – The Giants’ projected outfield looks to be Pat Burrell, Andres Torres, and Cody Ross with Mark DeRosa and Aaron Rowand on the outside looking in. Torres is batting .400 this spring and should open as the center fielder and leadoff man, giving him solid NL-only and deeper league mixed value. Ross is batting .316 and should be more or less an everyday guy despite a mediocre .721 OPS a year ago. Burrell meanwhile is batting just .182, a mark that if it continues, could result in the Giants giving stud prospect Brandon Belt a look at either first base or left field. Stay tuned…
Padres notes…
Aaron Harang and the rotation – Harang is guaranteed a rotation spot after inking a $4 million deal, but after three innings of seven-run ball Wednesday, the state of the Padres’ rotation after Mat Latos has to be in question. Harang’s peripherals took a step back last year, but he’s still just 33 and though this can be overrated as a contributor to success, Harang is from the San Diego area. It’s also quite a good place to pitch if you haven’t noticed. I’m still bullish on his prospects for 2011.
Padres Outfield – On the surface, it appears that Ryan Ludwick, Cameron Maybin, and Will Venable are set as the three starters. Maybin though is dealing with a concussion while Ludwick is certainly no guarantee given his massive drop-off in 2010. Venable though is hitting .350 so far this spring and has the skillset of a 15/30 guy given further development in his skillset. Venable will have to improve upon his career 70% CT% and 0.35 EYE, but from a fantasy perspective, he’s a guy to target for his SB skills.
Diamondbacks notes…
Arizona Outfield – We know the Dbacks are set with Chris Young and Justin Upton at two of the three positions, but an old friend is making a move for starting slot #3 – Wily Mo Pena. Wednesday, Pena bashed his second homer of the spring and is now batting .364 with just two strikeouts in 22 at-bats. Pena is an intriguing power option, though until now, we’ve assumed his best-case scenario was a spot off the bench. That said, Gerardo Parra is looking more and more like a fourth outfielder, and guys like Brandon Allen (batting .292) have yet to take a big step forward. Pena represents an intriguing end-game NL-only pick.
Rotation – We pretty much assumed that Ian Kennedy was a lock for the Arizona rotation and he probably still is, but after allowing five runs in three innings Wednesday, Kennedy’s ERA sits at a subpar 7.88 this spring. The So. Cal. native has now allowed 14 hits in eight innings with a still-solid 8:2 K:BB. He’ll probably be just fine, but Kennedy’s rotation status could be in jeopardy at some point, particularly if Jarrod Parker continues to show he’s recovered from Tommy John surgery. Kennedy did have a 3.80 ERA in 32 starts last year, so he’s probably safe, but a strong next couple of starts would be comforting.
Alex Gordon (OF-KC) – I’m resigned to the fact that scouts may have been wrong about Gordon, but I’m not quite ready to give up and neither are the Royals. Wednesday, Gordon was 3-for-3 with a double and two RBI, garnering rave reviews from manager Ned Yost. Of course Gordon has always done well in BP and in spring training, so don’t go crazy here, but this is the type of guy who wins fantasy leagues. Gordon has a .733 OPS in over 1,400 big league at-bats, so his time is running short, but who knows, perhaps he’s simply a late-bloomer.
Carlos Gomez (OF-MIL) – Gomez was 2-for-4 with a triple on Wednesday, leaving him at .348 with four extra-base hits (50% XBH%) on the spring. That’s the good news. The bad news – as usual, no walks in 22 at-bats. Gomez sports a career .293 OBP and 0.23 EYE, so this is nothing new. Still, with Lorenzo Cain in Kansas City via the Zack Greinke trade, center field is wide open for the likes of Gomez. With his speed, he bears monitoring in NL-only formats.
Adam Jones (OF-BAL) – Jones was 3-for-4 with his second spring home run and three RBI Wednesday and is now batting .350/.350/.700 in 20 at-bats this spring. Jones is coming off relatively disappointing back-to-back sub-.800 OPS seasons and has yet to fulfill his vast potential. It’s less than encouraging to see Jones go from a 0.39 EYE to a 0.19 mark year-over-year, though his power remained relatively steady with a .158 ISO versus a .180 mark in 2009. Amazingly, Jones is still just 25, so we’ve probably yet to see his best, so put him on your sleeper list for this year’s drafts.
Daniel Espinosa (2B-WAS) – Espinosa was 3-for-4, falling a triple short of the cycle Wednesday against the Marlins. Espinosa is set to open as the team’s second baseman, and if he keeps this up, he’ll likely be batting second in front of Ryan Zimmerman and Adam LaRoche, a slot that could result in 100 runs scored if Espinosa can exhibit even an average amount of plate discipline. We know that he has 20/20 skills in his toolset, and given the Nats’ willingness to not block guys with actual talent, I’m going to be targeting Espinosa in several of my leagues this year.
Mike Morse (OF-WAS) – Morse was 2-for-3 with a double on Wednesday, raising his spring battling line to a stellar .435/.462/.913 with three homers among his 10 hits. Morse is competing for one of the two OF slots alongside Jayson Werth, with Nyjer Morgan likely to win one job given his ability to play center field. That leaves Morse and Roger Bernadina as the likely competitors for left field. Bernadina has an .855 OPS this spring, but he’s also considered the better defender, so this battle is far from over. Personally, I like Morse in this race, as the Nats are going to need all the offense they can muster, and Morse has an .810 career OPS. We didn’t even mention Rick Ankel, so this situation is crowded indeed.
Scott Kazmir (SP-LAA) – Kazmir’s ERA Wednesday looks pretty solid (3 IP, 1 unearned run), but digging deeper, he also allowed five hits while walking four. That’s three baserunners per inning if you’re counting at home. For the spring, Kazmir now has a respectable 3.38 ERA, but he’s also allowed 17 baserunners in just eight innings with a 3:5 K:BB. There just isn’t much to be optimistic about here unless for some reason you figure he’s suddenly going to turn back the clock five years. I’d go a couple bucks in AL-only leagues, but it’s a flier, nothing more.
Clay Buchholz (SP-BOS) – Buchholz appeared to be in mid-season form Wednesday, tossing four four-hit shutout innings, walking none and fanning three. Buchholz has now tossed nine scoreless innings this spring as he attempts to prove his semi-doubters (myself included wrong). Why the doubt? It’s fairly obvious that a 2.33 ERA is not supported by Buchholz’s 6.2 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9, but maybe the regressing will be more towards a 3.25 ERA and now a 4.00 mark. You certainly need to factor in some element of growth, as Buchholz is just 26, so perhaps some slack is needed.
Devin Mesoraco (C-CIN) – Mesoraco was 2-for-2 with a pair of singles Wednesday, leaving him 6-for-12 so far this spring. Mesoraco is set to open the season in Triple-A with Ryan Hanigan and Ramon Hernandez ahead of him and Yasmani Granal right on his heels. Mesoraco lit up the minors to the tune of a .964 OPS a year ago. His defensive skills are lagging behind his bat, so a minor league stint probably is a good idea. He won’t help you in the stolen bases category, but once Mesoraco gets a shot at regular playing time, he could prove to be an above-average offensive catcher.
Derek Holland (SP-TEX) – Young left-handers who throw hard and have solid minor league track records are guys I want to hitch my wagon too. Holland clearly falls into that category. Wednesday, Holland blanked the A’s over three two-hit innings, striking out four and not walking a batter. Holland has a 1.80 ERA in five innings so far this spring, and while the sample size is small, he appears set to earn one of the five rotation slots in Texas. Over 195.2 big league innings, Holland has a respectable 7.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9, numbers more than offset by the 32 homers he’s given up in that span. At 24 however, there’s still plenty of room for growth.
Josh Thole (C-NYM) – Among Mets catchers historically, Thole isn’t going to rank alongside Mike Piazza as one of the best when all is said and done, but he could be above average if he continues to develop. Wednesday, Thole was 3-for-3, falling a HR short of the cycle in raising his batting line to a stellar .350/.381/.550. Ultimately he’s unlikely to be much of a power guy given his paltry minor league HR totals, but a solid OBP and perhaps in time, 10 homers could be attainable given adequate playing time.
