Jhonny Peralta - After struggling during his 27 and 28 year old campaigns, Jhonny Peralta finds himself written off by many as a second-tier option entering the 2011 season. It seemed to me, however, that there were some positive signs last season, specifically in Peralta's contact rate and LD%. His AVG suffered from a rather low BABIP (particularly when his LD% is taken into account), so expecting a rebound there is logical. With improvements in BB rate and K rate to go along with the others last year, the statistical improvements may very well follow this season. I'd upgrade Peralta a bit on your draft lists for 2011, keeping in mind his eligibility at both MI and CI in most formats.
Brad Penny - Brad Penny is penciled into the 5th spot for the Tigers this season, and like many arms that went through St. Louis you wonder how much he picked up from Dave Duncan might stick. Penny's K rate in 9 starts last season wasn't much different than his past few years of work, but his swinging strike% was the highest it has been since 2004, and Penny was using his splitter more than he ever has while tossing for the Cards. The velocity and the curve were still there as well, all of which make me wonder if Penny isn't a bit of a sleeper this year in the pitching-favorable confines of Comerica Park. Health, more than performance, will likely be the main issue for Penny, although the move back to the AL does lower expectations a bit. Penny is a worthwhile gamble in AL-only formats as a back-end starter....mixed leaguers will likely want to limit his contributions to a reserve slot at present.
Pat Neshek - The Twins waived Neshek over the weekend, and he was subsequently claimed by the Padres. That's basically switching great parks to pitch in, with the added bonus (for Neshek, and any owners of his) that the Padres have had great success cobbling together bullpens out of various parts over the past few seasons. Neshek could easily be a solid contributor for the Padres out of a middle relief slot this year, so if your league awards points for holds then Neshek suddenly has value in NL-only and deeper mixed formats.
Scott Baker - It's a shame that Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey are battling for one spot in the Minnesota rotation, because the two of them could easily be the team's second and third starters, respectively, if given the chance. Baker tossed another great spring game yesterday, but seeing as how it came on the heels of another solid outing by Slowey the competition is still fairly even. Ideally, Nick Blackburn would be shifted to the bullpen, but Ron Gardenhire doesn't seem to be inclined to make that move. Watch this competition closely over the last week and a half, as the winner is clearly worth owning in most formats.....the loser much less so. In my mind, Baker has the slight edge at present (and is the slightly better option on the whole).
Dan Johnson - Despite the fact that Casey Kotchman is tearing it up this spring while Dan Johnson is, well, hitting like Dan Johnson does, it appears that Johnson is still firmly entrenched as the starter at 1B. Obviously this was a competition in name only, as Kotchman has almost doubled up Johnson in AVG and OBP and has six XBH to boot....maybe it will be enough to win him a roster spot. Johnson remains a decent end-game option for HRs, RBIs, and BBs, but still isn't likely to crack the middle of the pack at 1B.
BJ Upton - The maddening case of B.J. Upton enters its fifth full season with little progress but lasting promise, as Upton remains a player with five-tool potential, just entering his prime, but also possessing seemingly awful work habits. Upton's swinging strike% ballooned to 12% last year, holding his AVG well down in the lower .200s, but the power and speed numbers still offer tremendous potential for the 26 year old to be one of the best roto players around. Upton is one of those guys that you feel compelled to own, because it seems like he absolutely must break out one of these years, but it might just be that he's simply another version of Chris Young. That's still a very solid OFer, but nothing to get all worked up over. Actually, I think it is much more likely that Upton remains a Young-level player, and should be valued as such...meaning that he is likely a top-20 OF in all formats (with plenty of upside, of course).
Phil Humber - With Jake Peavy down again (rotator cuff tendonitis), Phil Humber may actually have some value to open the season. As the (barely) most likely candidate to fill out the Chicago rotation in Peavy's absence, Humber's vastly improved control and solid GB rates could provide a small amount of value in the early going in deeper formats. His HR rate is likely too high for sustained success at the big league level (particularly on the South Side), but he could spot start in AL-only formats for a bit depending on how long Peavy is out. A deep sleeper, but those are needed too.
Mark Trumbo - With Kendry Morales opening the season on the DL, Mark Trumbo is the perfect kind of a guy to grab at the end of your draft and hope that his likely early-season PT springboards into something more. I'm not super-impressed with the 25 year old Trumbo, as his two best seasons have come in very favorable hitting environments, but he does certainly have enough power to be interesting. The only way I can see him getting any sort of consistent PT after Morales returns, barring a deal, is if Bourjos completely flops and they move Hunter back to CF and Abreu to RF. Not very likely, in my opinion, so probably Trumbo is just an early-season fill-in...meaning that his draftability is limited to the very end of deeper formats.
Gerardo Parra - More deep sleepers on a rainy Monday....Gerardo Parra is coming off of a rather disappointing 2010, but there's been a lot of talk about him coming into camp significantly stronger this season. You could certainly write this off as spring training nonsense, but Parra will be 24 a month into the season, and it's certainly possible that he's going to be one of those guys that develops some pop in his mid-20's. Couple that with his .314 minor league AVG (over 1422 ABs) and the hitting environment in Arizona, and you'd have a pretty fair player. At present, Parra is penciled in as the 4th OF for the D-Backs, but I don't think anyone is sold on Xavier Nady playing OF full-time, so I expect Parra to get plenty of chances to prove that he's growing as a player....possibly right out of the gate if Nady moves to 1B. Parra is certainly worth monitoring closely, and possibly has enough potential to warrant a reserve slot in deeper formats right off the bat.
Brett Wallace - First base is an easy position to leave until the end of your auction/draft if you don't get one of the top names, which generally means you'll want a backup plan in case choice number one doesn't work out. Brett Wallace (age 24) tore up the PCL for just over half a season last year, and then came to Houston and was utterly awful for 144 ABs. Granted, it's only 1100 ABs spread out over five locations, but Wallace hadn't hit under .281 anywhere in his minor league career, and he'd shown solid gap power as well. I'd be surprised if he doesn't take advantage of the friendly confines in Houston to put up adequate 1B numbers starting fairly soon. I wouldn't feel comfortable with him as my #1 1B, but as a backup plan I think that he has significant upside.
Jo-jo Reyes - Reyes is still in the mix for the fifth spot in the Blue Jay rotation, and his Wednesday start against New York will be pivotal in determining whether he, Drabek, or Litsch end up in the last two spots. Reyes has been brilliant at times in the minors, but has never translated much of that to the big-league level. He's a lefty that throws over 90, and he has fanned over 8 men per 9 in his lengthy (585 IP) minor league career, so there's potential. He has been plagued by surprisingly high HR/FB rates every time he has reached the majors, and since all of those stints add up to less than 200 IP it's possible that it is just a fluke. Toronto is a very difficult situation for Reyes to emerge, as the AL East obviously possesses some impressive offensive talent, but should he win a rotation job I would certainly have him on my watch list.
Brandon McCarthy - Apparently today's theme is indeed deep sleepers, as one of my perennial favorites is vying for the 5th starter's spot in Oakland. Brandon McCarthy has been injured for most of the last three years, so even if he does realize his sizable potential it may not last for long, but he is supposedly back throwing in the low-90's this spring and has added a cutter and sinker in favor of his old four-seamer. Those additions should help curb his gopher-tastic tendencies a bit, as should pitching in Oakland as opposed to Texas. I think there is sizable sleeper potential here....McCarthy's minor league numbers are almost uniformly outstanding, but he's rarely been available to build upon them at the big-league level. I think he is a worthwhile rotation gamble in most formats....always assuming that he wins the job over Rich Harden.
Michael Pineda - Taking a break from the deep sleeper end of the pool for a moment....it shouldn't surprise us all that much that the M's are now likely to bring Michael Pineda with them as the 5th starter right out of camp. Granted, it makes no sense contractually for them to do so, but since when do the Mariners have their own long-term interests at heart? Pineda instantly becomes a must-have in all formats if he does indeed break camp with the club. The 22 year old has posted a 2.66 ERA at five minor league stops, walking just over two men per nine while striking out 9.25. He is least likely to help you in W, but he should be a very solid boost in K and WHIP, with a slight help in ERA likely. He is probably a mid-rotation level starter right out of the bat, with obvious potential for more than that in the reasonably near-term.
Tom Gorzelanny - It looks like Gorzelanny will be in the rotation for the Nats out of the gate, which is good for all of you looking for some Ks from the back of your rotation. The 28 year old struck out just under 8 men per 9 last year for the Cubs, and he has posted FIP ERA's under 4.00 in each of the last two seasons after his disastrous 2008. His ceiling is limited due to his relatively poor control, but he could fit into the back of a rotation in NL-only formats and even in deeper mixed leagues.
Rick Ankiel - It appears that Rick Ankiel now has the inside track on the CF job in Washington, but the days of being excited by his power may very well be gone forever. Ankiel's K rate has risen to the point where he simply cannot be counted on to hold a major league job, and while much of his power loss last year was due to an extreme number of groundballs hit, he won't put up enough numbers to help when he's striking out a third of the time. Bernadina or Morgan are better late-round flyers for you than Ankiel, and if Ankiel is going to be the one getting the PT then all three can stay on the wire.
Melky Cabrera - Melky is batting almost .500 this spring, and even though that typically means nothing it hasn't stopped the Royals from proclaiming him their Opening Day CF. The 26 year old had a forgettable season in Atlanta last year, lost 15-20 pounds over the offseason, and is now trying to resume some semblance of a career. Two years ago it looked like he was on his way to becoming a 15-15 type of a player, so perhaps being jettisoned by the Braves will kick him back on track. I wouldn't risk more than a reserve slot on him in mixed leagues, but he could easily be worth an end-game play in single league formats as a high-risk/high-reward choice.
