NL Player Notes - April 1st, 2011

NL Quick Pitch: The big news in the NL on opening day was the performance of closers. Ryan Franklin, John Axford, and Jonathan Broxton all gave owners reason to worry, while Craig Kimbrel saw his value rise. Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum showed us why the NL West is bringing back the dead-ball era, while we saw some mixed results from other potential aces in Yovani Gallardo and Edinson Volquez. Drew Stubbs, Rickie Weeks, and Colby Rasmus picked up right where they left off as ascending young players. Brandon Belt and Cameron Maybin opened some eyes. Jair Jurrjens felt good after his bullpen session but may still go on the DL (procedural, would pitch late next week). Mat Latos threw from a mound and reportedly looked healthy. Brian Wilson reportedly looked great and claimed he threw “8 shutout innings” during his bullpen stint on Thusday. It looks like it won’t be a very long DL stint for Wilson, who may return in the middle of next week.

Brandon Belt (1B - SFG): You couldn’t ask for a much tougher assignment in Belt’s major league debut. He got to face one of the toughest LH’s in baseball while battling twilight shadows. Even so he performed admirably, going 1-3 with a BB and having consistently strong AB’s. There’s some concern surrounding Belt that if he doesn’t produce immediately he’ll be sent back down when Cody Ross is ready to return, but I’m convinced that won’t even be an option. Belt’s shown great plate discipline and bat skills. I think he’s here to stay and will make an impact in all leagues. I’m looking for .280-75-20-85 from Belt with upside beyond that. I’m very optimistic on the young 22 year old who has just 1 professional season under his belt largely because of his great skills, but also because the division he plays in posts few elite SP’s and many AAA-types. Growing up in the NL East with the Phillies, Braves, and Marlins staffs there might be some more growing pains, but facing the Rockies, DBacks, Padres, and Dodgers I think Belt can hang and produce. I want him in any format I’m playing.

Edinson Volquez (SP - CIN): Volquez got off to a rough start for Thursday’s home opener as he allowed back-to-back HR’s as part of the first 4 batters of the game reaching. But he eventually settled down, allowing just 5 more base-runners while getting through 6 innings. The overall line looks a bit more palatable as he allowed 7 hits, 2 BB’s, and 5 ER’s over 6 innings while striking out 5. The 3 HR’s allowed are certainly alarming, but the 10 groundouts ease any concerns over the long-ball. Volquez showed above average control (69% of pitches for strikes), a solid K Rate, and great GB Rate. While the start was horrid and the overall numbers leave a bad taste in owners mouths, I think there’s a bit more good than bad in the line for Volquez. Now Volquez is going to be a volatile asset throughout the year. His typically middling command and tough home park, will make for some difficult days; but the upside is tremendous. He’s always done a great job at getting ground balls and strike outs and if he can just throw strikes more consistently there’s going to be a breakthrough. I tend to try to protect WHIP in drafts, so I didn’t end up with the upside of Volquez in many places (instead opting for the safety of guys like Kuroda), but if you are a Volquez owner, stay patient and focus on the command. If he’s throwing strikes the results will follow.

Cameron Maybin (OF - SD): Before writing this blurb, I went and checked through a bunch of my leagues to see how people were reacting to Cameron Maybin’s opening day. Typically a former top prospect goes 2-5 with a game-tying HR in the 9th inning and you see owners scurrying to the waiver wire to roster the player; hoping to cash in a lottery ticket later in the season. With Maybin though, I didn’t see any action. Now most of these were 10 team leagues so maybe its not deep enough, but I’d think a prospect that has posted a career .306/.393/.478 minor league line and a .940 OPS at AAA last year would draw a bit more attention. Maybin’s locked into playing everyday in CF with the Padres and while he hasn’t succeeded at the big league level, the soon-to-be 24 year old has never struggled in the minors. Maybe a change of scenery was all that was needed? Now I’m not running out to get him so maybe I’m being hypocritical here, but I am adding him to “watch” lists with the strong opening day performance. His Run/RBI totals will always be limited by the horrid supporting cast in SD, but with everyday playing time a 15-25 season isn’t out of the question. In 14 team leagues and deeper I’d be adding, but those in traditional 10 and 12 team leagues can probably wait to see more. His minor league track record, lack of PT concerns, and power-speed potential are enough to keep my attention.

Tim Stauffer (SP - SD): After last season in which we saw Jon Garland, Clayton Richard, and pretty much every other former mid-rotation starter have some fantasy value at points in San Diego, fantasy owners are eager to see what this year’s rotation can provide. Stauffer got things kicked off with a quality start on Thursday, allowing 2 ER’s over his 6 innings of work. He was forced to work in and out of jams, surrendering 9 hits and 1 walk while only striking out 2, but got 8 ground outs and 3 DP’s to keep the Cardinals from breaking things open. The great GB Rate is consistent with what Stauffer posted in his 7 starts at the end of the year last year (54%). While he won’t replicate the 1.85 ERA again, the combination of good command (2.62 BB/9 last yr) and elite GB Rates will make him a viable back-end rotation starter. The K’s and W’s will be tough to come by he’ll provide nice ratio protection and serve as a solid matchups option pitching in PETCO. Keep your expectations in check, but he’s absolutely worth a look in 12 team mixed leagues. 3.50-3.75 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 120 K’s, 10 Wins is a reasonable projection.

John Axford (RP - MIL): Axford struggled all spring with his command, walking 6 batters in 8 1/3 innings and allowing 16 base-runners in total, and those struggles became a bit more magnified after his 1st outing of the season. Axford walked 1, and allowed 2 base hits one of which was the game-winning HR off Ramon Hernandez’s bat. All-told he finished with 3 base-runners allowed, 4 ER, in just 2/3 IP. Axford’s never had big issues surrendering HR’s (just 0.5 HR/9 in minors), but his career 6.0 BB/9 at the minor league level is concerning. Given how badly the Brewers struggled to close out games last year, prior to Axford, and the added pressure surrounding expectations this year, there’s some thought the Brewers may be quicker with the trigger this year. Takashi Saito is a capable closer option behind Axford and would be the handcuff for Axford owners. He possesses elite skills, but has some durability concerns to go with him. Given the shaky spring, shaky minor league track record with command, and good skill set of Saito; if I’m an Axford owner I’m insuring my saves by nabbing Saito for now. It may ultimately be an over-reaction, but Axford has enough question marks I think it warrants attention.

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