AL Fantistics Daily Notes - March 31, 2011
Today is the best day of the year! Opening Day is finally here, so make sure you set your lineups for active players since there are only 6 games today (and only 2 from the American League). There were a lot of official DL announcements yesterday that may have affected your rosters. Curtis Granderson has been cleared to play and will be in the Yanks opening day lineup batting 8th and we may see a 2011 Cy Young battle between CC Sabathia and Just Verlander. Enjoy the first of 162!
1. Erik Bedard (SP - Mariners) - Erik Bedard finally seems healthy enough to put together a full 2011. He will make his first start of the season on Monday (which also makes him a two start pitcher for the first full fantasy week). It will also be the first time he takes the mound since July 2009. Since then he has gone through two surgeries, including one to repair a torn labrum. Because he hasn’t pitched a full season since 2007, Bedard falls off the fantasy radar in a lot of mixed leagues, but that doesn’t mean he can’t still have an impact. My guess is that he stumbles to find his groove in the early going, but picks up his feel around mid-season and becomes a viable fantasy starter. Still not worth the waiver claim at this stage - too risky.
2. Jake Peavy (SP - White Sox) - The White Sox officially placed Jake Peavy on the disabled list, retroactive to March 22nd. He’ll go longer than 15 days on the list, as he is scheduled for a rehab start on April 8th in Triple-A. He has already laid-out his timeline for a return - when he can throw 100 pitches and bounce back 5 days later and do it again, he’ll be ready to rejoin the big league squad. With that schedule and assuming no setbacks, you’re assuming at least a mid-to-late April return at the earliest.
3. Josh Beckett (SP - Red Sox) - Beckett finished the spring with a strong outing, giving him momentum heading in 2011 for a solid bounceback year. I believe Beckett was one of the better fantasy values on draft boards this year, averaging in the mid-to-late teen rounds in mixed leagues after a rough 2010 campaign. There are certainly good indications that Beckett returns to his former self in 2011. Beckett’s BABIP last year was .338, the highest of his career and 48 points higher than in 2009, perhaps indicating some bad luck. He posted an ugly ERA of 5.78, but posted a FIP of 4.54 and an xFIP of 3.86, which is further indication that his luck should turn around. The fastball velocity is still there too. Beckett will get his first start on Tuesday against the Indians and will be a 2-start pitcher for next fantasy week.
4. Mike Gonzalez (RP - Orioles) - Add a third candidate in-line to get some saves in Baltimore (just how many games does Buck Showalter think he’s going to win this year?). Mike Gonzalez has been added to the committee of Kevin Gregg and Koji Uehara for possible save opportunities this year, especially when if the 9th inning has lefties on the opposing team. Gonzalez has some experience as a closer, saving 55 games in his career and 24 in a season for the Pirates back in 2006. A lot would have to happen for Gonzalez to earn the full time spot, so its best to keep Gonzalez on the waiver wire where he belongs for now. Kevin Gregg will still see most looks in the 9th inning for now. It will be interesting to see how this situation develops throughout the season, so keep all three pitchers on your radar in case Showalter makes an official closer announcement or starts going to one particular pitcher more often.
5. Brett Gardner (OF - Yankees) - I’ve discussed this briefly throughout the preseason, but now its seems more official that it has been confirmed by manager Joe Girardi. Brett Gardner will definitely be hitting leadoff against RHP and Derek Jeter will be in the leadoff spot against LHP. It won’t bother Jeter as much, as he has bounced back and forth throughout his career. Since there are more RHP as starters than lefties, Gardner will mostly be in the leadoff spot for most of the season which should yield high runs and SB numbers, especially if he can match or exceed last year’s OBP of .383.
6. Curtis Granderson (OF - Yankees) - The Grandy Man’s status for Opening Day was up-in-the-air because of a strained oblique. The injury seems to be ok and he has been cleared to be in the lineup today against Justin Verlander. That’s great news for owners who expected him to miss at least a few games to start the season. It is expected to be a cold and rainy day in NYC, so don’t be shocked to see a last minute scratch from the lineup, but for now you should consider him good-to-go and he’ll probably be batting 8th in the Yankee order.
7. Justin Verlander (SP - Tigers) - Justin Verlander will begin his 2011 season in cold and rainy NYC today as he’ll face the Yankees at 1pm. If there is one elite pitcher that looks poised to put together a Cy Young caliber season, its Verlander. Making sure not to place too much emphasis on spring stats, Verlander was absolutely dominant this spring allowing just 3 ER in 28.0 IP while recording 23 K’s and just 3 BB’s to post a 0.86 WHIP in 6 games. Verlander finished 11th in Cy Young voting in 2010 and 3rd in 2009. His run support per game has steadily increased over the past two years (4.9 and 5.3 RS/GS), but King Felix’s win last year proves the writers are not as concerned with win totals as they once were. At 28, this year may be the year where it all clicks perfectly.
8. Edwin Encarnacion (3B - Blue Jays) - The Blue Jays shuffled some things around and moved Jose Bautista from LF to RF and Edwin Encarnacion will be the full time 3B as Juan Rivera becomes the DH. Encarnacion has been talked about quite a lot as a guy that has never quite lived-up to his potential. But few remember that he still hit 21 HR last year in just 332 AB for a AB/HR of 15.8. He strikes out a ton (16.4% K%) and yields a low OBP (career of just .336 with last year at .305), but you may be able to get some cheap power out of him with everyday playing time.
9. Jered Weaver (SP - Angels) - Weaver gets the nod today against the Royals to start 2011. Weaver quietly finished 2010 5th in the Cy Young voting and at 28 years old, is certainly hitting his prime. He led the league in K’s last year with 233 (for a K/9 of 9.3), but that will be tough to sustain as his previous 4-year rate was 7.3 and he had never posted a rate higher than 7.7. The win total was low last year at just 13, but a little run support could have gotten him closer to 20. After getting 5.8 RS/GS in 2009, he got just 3.8 in 2010. He’s a top-10 fantasy pitcher, but I think he finishes the season even better.
10. Luke Hochever (SP - Royals) - I wrote about Hochever earlier in the season as probably the most fantasy-relevant starter on the Royals, but that’s probably not saying much. He’ll be the opening day starter for the Royals, but outside of AL-only leagues, shouldn’t really be owned at this point. He has three consecutive seasons of a 1.43 WHIP or higher and we have seen a steady increase in LD% over the past three years from 16.5%, 17.6%, to 21.0%. His FIP was 3.93 last year, compared to an ERA of 4.81 which may indicate a little bad luck, but his xFIP was higher at 4.09. If he turns the corner this year and becomes a solid pitcher, I’ll be happy to admit my fault later in the season. But given the information we have today, I see that as highly unlikely. Sorry Royals fans.
11. AJ Burnett (SP - Yankees) - Burnett is suffering through a very bad head cold that could jeopardize his start on Saturday. Its too early to predict, but you may see his start pushed into next week. We should probably have more information over the next couple of days so stay tuned.
12. David Aardsma (RP - Mariners) - After undergoing hip surgery, Aardsma will be out of action until at least May as he tries to bounceback to be the Mariners closer. So far, the throwing schedule he has performed has gone well and he continues to build-up his strength. Aardsma is certainly worth the DL spot on your roster if he can make it back by May. His ERA last year may be a bit overstated at 3.12 as his xERA was 2.70. He still managed to earn 31 saves and record a K/I of about 1.0.
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