Wade Davis SP (TB) – Davis just signed a long term extension with the Rays, but what are his fantasy prospects for this year? Well, last year Davis was simply below average – 6.05 K/9, 3.32 BB/9 and 39.2 GB%. His 4.07 ERA was a bit lucky as Davis benefited from a 78.2 LOB% and .272 BABIP that are likely not sustainable. So, we are likely looking at a slight regression overall in Davis’ surface stats unless he can miss more bats. I don’t foresee it happening though, at least not to the extent where it would allow Davis to “break out”. His K/9 only improved slightly from the first half (5.9) to the second half (6.2) last season, and Davis got hitters to chase only 26.9% of the time while generating swinging strikes just 6.3% of the time. Both of those numbers are below league average by a decent amount. He has good long term prospects, but don’t expect too much this season.
Fernando Rodney RP (LAA) – Rodney earned the save in the season opener for the Angels, but despite his 2 strikeouts I think there’s room for concern. Rodney’s velocity was very good (95-97), but his fastball lacked any movement. Couple that with a changeup that was recognizable and not able to be thrown for strike, and Rodney could have some real problems in the future. His velocity may get him out of some jams (as it did yesterday), but hitters are going to sit on that fastball. In fact, Alex Gordon sent a fastball over the wall, but just foul, for what would have been a walk off three run homer. If Rodney even regresses a little from recent years (plus 4 ERA the past three seasons), it’s unlikely he’ll last the entire season in the closer’s role.
Austin Jackson OF (DET) – Jackson owners had to be disappointed in his debut. After it appeared Jackson was improving his plate discipline over Spring Training, he struck out 3 times in 4 at bats yesterday (no walks). Jackson has some serious skills (speed, absurdly good 24.2 LD%) and projects to hit for more power down the line. However, he struck out 27.5% of the time last season and needs to make strides forward in the contact department if he hopes to duplicate last year’s .293 batting average and continue to get stolen base opportunities. Keep an eye on Jackson’s strikeout totals early on – if they are at last year’s levels he may disappoint owners, but if he improves his contact rate it will allow Jackson to his strengths that we mentioned earlier.
Ryan Raburn OF (DET) – Raburn went 1 – 3 with a walk and 2 fly outs yesterday. He should be a consistent source of power all year long as he generates good loft (FB %’s of 47.7 and 43.9 the past two seasons) and has the raw power (HR/FB %’s of 17 and 12.2 the past two seasons) to get those fly balls over the fence.
Kevin Jepsen RP (LAA) – Jepsen was a popular sleeper choice for saves coming into the season. He struggled yesterday (gave up 1 HR, 2 walks and recorded just one out), but I can still envision him getting saves down the line. His control wasn’t good last season (4.42 BB/9), but he showed the ability to miss bats – striking out 61 batters in 59 innings. Perhaps most importantly, for the second straight season, Jepsen posted a great GB% (57.1% and 55.6%), which is normally unheard for a reliever. So, don’t expect Jepsen to give up many more homers as he did yesterday; he’s given up an extremely low .32 HR/9 the past two seasons.
