2011 Preseason Prep - March 2nd, 2011

New York Mets

And now playing centerfield…
Yes, the big news to come out of camp for the Mets is the decision that Angel Pagan will be handling centerfield for the Mets this year with Carlos Beltran switching over to right. Although there was probably some ego swallowing on Beltran’s part, it was the right decision not only for the team but for Beltran as well. It’s also good news for fantasy owners who might be eyeballing Beltran in their upcoming draft. Moving to right field will mean that Beltran will need to cover less area, which means that it won’t be as hard on his knees, which means more playing time and less time on the DL. Bottom line: it could me an increase in value for Beltran if he is able to stay healthy. Beltran numbers were pretty poor last year with a slash line of .255/.341/.427 with just seven home runs in 255 at-bats. A healthy Beltran should produce closer to a .280 average and 15-20 home runs. Don’t expect big stolen base numbers as Beltran’s knees will limit his stealing ability. But also keep in mind that there is a strong possibility that Beltran will be shopped around this year and a contending club may be willing to pick up the remainder of his contract. If and where he might land will obviously impact his fantasy value for better or worse. Draft him with that caveat in mind.

The Bullpen
One thing is for sure, despite all his legal troubles and all of the craziness with anger issues, Francisco Rodriguez will be the Mets’ closer this season—for better or for worse. Assuming that he spends more time on the pitcher’s mound than the courtroom, you can expect good things from Rodriguez. Frankie was putting together a solid season with 25 saves and a 2.20 ERA before he derailed himself. His strikeouts were excellent at 10.52 per 9 innings and his home runs allowed were excellent at 0.47 HR/9. If Rodriguez should falter, Bobby Parnell may get an opportunity to take over the 9th inning. Parnell throws a 96 mph heater and seemed to be pulling things together last season. His ERA logged in at 2.83 and despite giving up more than a hit an inning, his K/9 was solid at 8.49 and showed good control with a BB/9 of 2.06. Monitor Parnell closely this season as he is the likely heir-apparent to the closer role in 2012 and this season will serve somewhat as a testing ground to see if he is ready.

Los Angeles Angels

The Support Cast
We know that the Angels middle of the lineup is pretty solid with Kendry Morales, Torii Hunter and Vernon Wells expecting to provide much of the offensive thrust of this team. But what about everyone else? This is where it gets a little sketchy. The Angels failed to land Carl Crawford or Adrian Beltre this off-season and the most glaring hole to fill is at third base where Alberto Callaspo is penciled in. Unfortunately, Callaspo doesn’t seem to fit the prototype of a corner infielder and because of that, he should be considered a lower tier option. With little power (ISO .109) and a poor OBP (.302) in 2010, it’s tough to waste a draft pick on him. Erick Aybar is another infielder that offers little fantasy value. Aybar could be a source of stolen bases (22 last season) but with no power and a poor EYE of 0.43, Aybar will struggle to get his average up to the .270. Howie Kendrick rounds out the infield of everyone who isn’t named Morales and Kendrick put together career best in many categories with the exception of batting average. Kendrick has .300 batting average potential as long as he stays healthy which has been an issue in the past. But between second, short and third, the Angels may struggle to score runs as they did little to improve this off season offensively while others in their division seem to be getting better.

New Faces
The fact that the Angels are willing to displace long-time centerfielders Torii Hunter and Vernon Wells to corner positions, speaks volumes about what the Angels think about Peter Bourjos defensive abilities. To say the guy is fleet of foot would be an understatement. The guy swiped more than 140 bases over five years in the minors and was able to swipe ten on the ML level in 51 games. But his .204 batting average and .228 OBP won’t cut it no matter how fast he is. Remember, you can’t steal first base. Mike Trout is the other new face to watch. You will want to watch his progress closely as he is ticketed for Double-A, but depending on how he does, he could make his debut in 2011 and will be immediately regarded as a ROY candidate. With 20+ home run power, great speed and a potential .300+ batting average, he’s one of those five tool guys to watch out for. Depending on how Trout does in the minors and whether Bourjos sticks as well as how the team is doing overall, you will want to grab Trout as soon as he is ready for prime time. Keeper-leagues should be grabbing him now.

Oakland A’s

The Key Guys
Last time I wrote about how great the A’s pitching is and how, in my humble opinion, they have one of the best, if the not the best, bullpen in baseball. I also remarked that if they make it to the playoffs, it will be largely due to their pitching. I still believe that. But pitching solely won’t get a team to the post-season. You do have to have some hitting. And for the A’s, where is that hitting going to come from? Two key players this year will be Daric Barton and Kurt Suzuki. Suzuki will need to provide more consistency they he did last year. He’s a workhorse behind the plate, so from a fantasy standpoint, it’s nice to get a backstop who will provide you more than 500 AB’s. But the last three months of the season, Suzuki fell asleep at the plate, hitting just .227 with just three home runs. Suzuki should provide better numbers than his .242 average in 2010 although expecting anything more than 15 home runs would be a stretch. Again, consistency will be key for Suzuki this season and for the A’s. Barton on the other hand is could be in a position where he will be able to build on 2010. Barton is a patient hitter with an EYE of 1.08. Being a patient hitter, I think he has a .300+ batting average season in front of him. His OBP at .393 will buoy his average. Power-wise, Barton should do better than 10 home runs. Granted, playing in Oakland is a challenge, but an extra five knocks is not out of the question. Barton could be a nice sleeper pick on draft day that will be batting in the middle of the A’s lineup where he could be a solid run producer.

The Battle for the Last Spot
There’s a nice battle that’s going on for the 5th spot in the A’s starting rotation between Josh Outman and Rich Harden. But there is a wild card in the mix that could possibly throw a monkey wrench in the works if he has an outstanding spring. That person is Brandon McCarthy. But Outman is probably the inside track favorite after undergoing TJ surgery in ’10. He produced some solid strikeout numbers in the minors and in ’09 punched out 53 batters in 67 innings. Harden, on the other hand, has always had amazing stuff. But of late has been unable to pitch late into games, throwing way too many pitches. His fastball velocity has been steadily dropping and although he is still fighting for a spot, Outman would be the preferred choice here. If Harden were to get the last spot, fantasy owners will need to proceed with extreme caution.

Seattle Mariners

Closing Time
Fantasy owners will have to do without David Aardsma for the beginning of the year as he is still recovering from hip surgery. He’s moving around and is better but still won’t make the opening day roster. So plan B will have to be called into play. And that means that either Chris Ray or Brandon League will take over closer duties out of spring training. Ray has had closer experience in his past with the Orioles where he put up solid numbers in 2006 with a 2.73 ERA and 33 saves. League has had a smattering of saves more recently than Ray. He saved 6 games in 2010 and put together an adequate 3.42 ERA. League throws harder than Ray and has a 7 run better than average fastball as opposed to Ray who doesn’t have as effective of a fastball as League but has better secondary pitches. Keep a close watch on this race as one of these guys will get the nod and their fantasy value will take a bump for a short time as Aardsma mends.

Two at the Top
Instrumental to the Mariners success will be the two guys at the top of the lineup: Inchiro Suzuki and Chone Figgins. Suzuki we know we can count of for a 300+ average and 30 steals. He swung at more pitches out of the strike zone last year (35.6%) and had a decrease in line drives which caused his average to dip slightly. But his BHIP was at .353 which is just 4 points under his career norm, so it’s possible we could see some forward movement in batting average with a better OBP. Figgins will be the really key as he will need to pick up where he left off last season. Figgins batted just .259 in his first season in Seattle, but after a rough start, hit a stride towards the end of the season. He hit .322 in the last month with a .376 OBP. The Mariners want more of that. While he certainly is not a .300 hitter, Figgins should provide a better average than .259. And if that’s the case, you could also expect a bump in stolen bases. Look for Figgins as a choice in the middle to late rounds that could payoff reasonable well.

Shaun Marcum (SP—Brewers) It’s never easy trusting a pitcher who is on the road to recovery from Tommy John surgery. But owners who took a chance on Shaun Marcum last year were rewarded with a solid year that should translate really nicely with his move to the Milwaukee Brewers. Why? Well, let’s start with just that fact that he is out of the A.L. East and now pitching in the N.L. Central. That’s a plus right there. But add to the fact that Miller Park should actually be an improvement on the Rogers Centre is another reason to get behind Marcum. Marcum used his changeup about 3% more in ’10 which was about 26 runs better than the average and managed to control the strike zone nicely with a BB/9 of 1.98 and a K/9 of 7.60. Additionally his FIP (3.74) was very much in line with his ERA (3.64) indicating he wasn’t lucky. Marcum is not an obvious top tier choice for pitchers, but astute owners could grab Marcum in middle rounds in the draft and could come away with a very nice year with a chance more victories with the Brew Crew and away from the A.L. East.

Juan Pierre (OF—White Sox) After a couple of years with the Dodgers where Juan Pierre struggled for playing time, 2010 saw him return to fantasy relevance with the White Sox. Pierre hit a decent .275 but did score 96 runs and steal 68 bases. Batting at the top of the order should continue to provide Pierre with a multitude of opportunities to swipe some more this year. With a CT% of 94.8%, Pierre will make his at-bats count. Somewhat encouraging for 2011 is that Pierre hit less line drives in 2010 (18.6%) compared to his career average (21.6%) so we could see a boost in average if he returns to his norm. Of course, if you are looking for any kind of power, look elsewhere. Pierre is not your guy. And for that matter if you’re looking for high OBP, forget that too. Pierre will not take many walks; never has, never will. Probably best suited for a 5x5 league than a points league, Pierre could help in a solid three categories. He’s a good grab in the middle rounds that could payoff nicely in 2011 as Pierre will be a catalyst at the top of the order.

Max Scherzer (SP—Tigers) Max Scherzer is poised for a breakout year. After struggling at the start of 2010, he produced solid results the second half of last season, posting a 2.47 ERA with opponents hitting just .222 against him. He struck out 96 batters in 102 innings and looks to be promising acquisition in this year’s draft. Still, a half a year does not a career make. Consistency will be the key to Scherzer’s 2011 and starting out where he left off will be key. Overall, Scherzer should produce a sub 4.00 ERA and in the area of a 175 strikeouts. Solid numbers. Ace potential is there, but be careful not to reach too high with Scherzer as a consistent track record has not been fully established.

Johnny Cueto (SP—Reds) Johnny Cueto put together a strong campaign last year with 12 wins, 185.2 innings and a 3.64 ERA. More good news is that despite pitching in the 8th best park to hit a home run in, Cueto’s HR/9 was just 0.92. Cueto developed a cutter in 2010 that proved to be one of his more effective pitches. However, he only threw it 8.2% of the time. This spring, Cueto will no doubt be working on improving that pitch, gaining confidence to throw it more often that could only help Cueto’s strikeout numbers. At 25, Cueto is still improving but he seems to be building on his past season’s experience and could be a solid #3 starter option with a chance to move up to #2 with improvement. Reds should provide a lot of offensive punch that could help Cueto reach the 15 win mark.

Mike Stanton (OF—Marlins) Mike Stanton will be in the Marlin lineup for the full year in 2011. This is good news from the power perspective as Stanton belted 22 home runs in 359 at-bats. That’s a home run every 16.3 at-bats, far better than the MLB average of 35.8. Projected out for a full season Stanton is looking at 36 home runs for the season so with some improvement, 40 home runs is not out of the questions. Sounds good. So what’s the downside? Well, Stanton also stuck out 123 times last year for an average of a strikeout every 2.9 at-bats. Again, projected out over a full season, that’s 199 K’s. Ouch! With a CT% of just 70.2%, realistically you can’t expect a terribly high average; probably no more than .260. But if you can live with the strikeouts, Stanton will provide great power and solid run production.

Alcides Escobar (SS—Royals) When looking at the Royals and determining whether or not any of them are draft-worthy, especially with Zack Greinke gone, the pickings are slim. Alcides Escobar represents one of those borderline players who could provide some usefulness for a fantasy team but it will require a much better effort than 2010. Escobar took a step back last year batting just .235 in his first full season. This was a 69 point drop from 2009 where he got a small taste of the Major Leagues. Even more disturbing is that he managed only a .288 OBP. The good news is that he is a good contact hitter (85.6%) and has a history of batting well in the minors. Fantasy owners can expect a better average than last year and with that should produce more stolen bases which is really more of his game. Escobar will drop in the lower tier of shortstops on draft day, but with a bounce back from his sophomore season, Escobar could be useful and contribute to a fantasy team for deeper leagues or A.L. only.

Kyle Drabek (SP—Blue Jays) Gotta a hankering to grab a up-and-coming prospect? Well, one that you might want to eyeball is Kyle Drabek. Granted, in just three appearances last year at the end of the season, Drabek went 0-3 but with a FIP of 4.08, he pitched much better than his 4.76 ERA would indicate. Drabek will more than likely produce a good strikeout rate, but this may not come immediately until some seasoning on the MLB level. However, he is a pitcher that will be able to keep in the ball in the park as his minor league career has produced a HR/9 of 0.7. He’s worth a grab in later rounds that could help to round out your staff. For keeper leagues, he is a must-have and should be picked up as a top pitching prospect.

Chris Carpenter (SP—Cardinals) The Cardinals dodged a bullet on Tuesday as their ace (now that Adam Wainwright is out) left the field with a tweaked hamstring. The injury doesn’t appear to be serious and carpenter should be OK with some rest. Carpenter, once again, produced solid numbers in 2010 with 3.22 ERA and 16 wins. His FIP of 3.69 was also a half a run higher, indicating that Carpenter may not have pitched as effectively as it seemed. His BHIP of .287 was also almost 20 points lower than his career norm, so Carpenter may have some leveling off this season. He is in a contract year so he has something to play for however. He remains a solid starting pitcher choice despite some indicators that he may slip a little in 2011.

Jay Bruce (OF—Reds) If post All-Star break is any indication of what Jay Bruce is capable of, he could be in line for a terrific season. From July 16th, covering 186 at-bats, Bruce hit .306 with 15 home runs and a .951 OPS. Yes, there were more than a fair share of strikeouts at 53, but his home run pace the second half would have produced 42 home runs over the course of a season. Some caution should be taken as Bruce had a very high BHIP of .334 which is about 44 points higher than his career average. His average .281 average last year may take a dip but he should provide power and solid run production and may drop to the middle rounds which could turn out to be a bargain. Look for Bruce to break the 30 home run barrier this season.

Pedro Alvarez (3B—Pirates) The hot corner has been cooling down over the years and has not been offering the depth it once did. But Pedro Alvarez represents a bright spot despite playing for the perennial non-contending Pirates. Alvarez hit 16 home runs last season which would have projected over the course of a full season to 27 home runs. His 34.3% strikeout rate is an issue and until he is able to hit left-handed pitching with more consistency, he will not make it to the top tier of third basemen. Two home runs and .228 batting average against southpaws is simply not going to cut it. Nevertheless, Alvarez is an up-and-comer and is a solid middle round draft pick that could reach the 30 home run plateau.

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