LA Dodgers
Pitching is expected to be this team’s strong suit, but we’re already seeing a reason why the old adage that “you can never have enough pitching” applies. Vicente Padilla underwent forearm surgery this week and is out until likely sometime in May. Jon Garland has had his first spring start skipped, though the team maintains there is nothing to be concerned about. Well, considering that some reports had other teams scared off Garland this winter due to an MRI on his pitching shoulder, I’d say there actually is some concern. There are few, if any, sub-25 year-old starters I like more than Clayton Kershaw, who dropped his BB/9 to 3.0 after the All-Star break. Top to bottom, it’s one of baseball’s deeper rotations. One kid turning heads in camp is the organization’s minor league pitcher of the year, Rubby De La Rosa. He’s expected to open in Double-A, but after a 2.37 ERA in the minors last year, we could see him in LA at some point this season.
Regarding the open competition for the third OF slot, there’s not clear leader at this point. Tony Gwynn Jr. led off in a split-squad game Saturday, going 0-for-2 with a walk. Marcus Thames was 1-for-3 with a double and run scored, and there wasn’t a Jay Gibbons sighting. I’d love to see Trayvon Robinson step up and win this job, but he needs further seasoning. Robinson has turned tools into production after doing nothing his first four pro seasons. Especially notable is the spike in his plate discipline – 7%, 11%, and 14% BB%’s the past three seasons. He’s yet to show much power, but should develop 15+ HR potential over the next few years to go with 40 SB upside.
San Francisco Giants
Lots has been written about Pablo Sandoval and his conditioning, and so far at least, early returns on a slimmer Panda are positive. In the club’s first spring action Saturday, Sandoval was 2-for-3 with a homer and three RBI against the Dodgers. Granted it was against a guy headed for work at Chevron this year (Oscar Villarreal), but it’s better than an 0-for-3, right? Sandoval is starting to look like a bit of a sleeper in some formats this season. At a minimum, it’s safe to say he won’t be playing for the Fresco Grizzlies come April.
There really isn’t an everyday slot for Mark DeRosa right now, but he’s off to the kind of start that says he is ready for semi-regular playing time at last. DeRosa was 3-for-3 (all singles) with a run and RBI Saturday against the Dodgers. Freddie Sanchez underwent shoulder surgery in December, but maintains he’ll be ready for Opening Day. If not, 2B is DeRosa’s. He’ll also see time in the outfield and perhaps some third base this year when Pablo Sandoval needs a day off. DeRosa tallied just 93 at-bats a year ago due to a wrist injury, and the last season he was fairly healthy, 2009, saw DeRosa’s EYE take a dive to 0.31 with the Cardinals. So at age 36 with a pair of wrist surgeries over the last tow years, DeRosa might be just about done.
Arizona Diamondbacks
At first glance, the Diamondbacks’ situation at the infield corners looks dire. At the hot corner, Melvin Mora turned 39 in February, and though he is coming off a solid .285/.358/.421 season in 316 at-bats with the Rockies, there’s little chance we’re looking at much more than a replacement-level third baseman with Mora. He managed that line as a utility player, a role he’s best-suited for at this point in his long career. When Mora needs a breather, the Dbacks will get to turn to an even worse option, Geoff Blum. Blum somehow snagged a two-year deal in Arizona off last year’s .267/.321/.356 performance in Houston. Maybe he makes a mean stack of blueberry pancakes?
Over at first base, at least you have a handful of intriguing bats – Juan Miranda, Brandon Allen, and Russell Branyan, with Xavier Nady a possibility versus LHP. Cuban defector Miranda is considered the early favorite after coming over from the Yankees in November. He doesn’t offer a ton of power, but did have a .374 OBP in Triple-A last year. Personally, I’m a bit biased towards Allen, who could also factor into the LF picture. I saw plenty of Allen where I live (Reno) last year when he slugged 25 homers in 371 at-bats, albeit at over 4,000 feet of elevation. Kevin Towers knew Miranda from his days as a special assistant to GM Brian Cashman last year, so look for Miranda to get plenty of opportunities to win this job. In fact, Towers has gone for far as to say Miranda’s power grades a 70 on the 20-80 scale despite Miranda topping out at 18 homers in his minor league seasons.
San Diego Padres
Baserunning coach Dave Roberts is confident that Will Venable can steal 40 bases this season now that he’s been given the green light to run more often. Venable swiped 29 last year in 36 attempts while compiling a modest .245/.324/.408 batting line. Venable’s minor league high is 21, so 40 seems like a bit of a stretch at this point. Of course making more frequent contact would help, as Venable’s contact rate was a paltry 67% last season with 128 strikeouts in 131 games. At least this year, Venable’s job security seems rather high with Cameron Maybin, Ryan Ludwick, and other lesser options surrounding him in the outfield.
Not a whole lot of other news out of Padres camp just yet, as the team looks forward to Sunday’s Cactus League opener. One guy we haven’t talked a whole lot about is catcher Nick Hundley. Hundley comes to camp for the first time in his career as the undisputed starter after batting .249/.308/.418 last year while splitting time with Yorvit Torrealba. Hundley has some value in two-catcher and NL-only formats, but don’t go expecting some breakthrough in his age 27 season. He’s never hit for average at any level, doesn’t steal bases, and his power is moderate, particularly considering his home park. If you get .250-15-60 out of Hundley, consider yourself fortunate. The soon-to-be 40 year-old Gregg Zahn is around as insurance, but while Zahn can easily outhit Hundley, figure the at-bats are split 65/35 or so in Hundley’s favor.
Bartolo Colon (SP-NYY) – Well, you can probably write off Colon as a contender for one of the Yankees’ rotation spots. Those slots are likely to go to Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia. Saturday, Colon allowed one run in two innings, but only touched as high as 89 mph with his fastball. Normally that isn’t too alarming considering it’s just February, but Colon pitched in the Winter League, so this may be about all we can expect. Colon last pitched in the majors in 2009, when for the White Sox, he allowed a whopping 13 HR in just 62.1 innings with a mediocre 38:21 K:BB. Consider it penance for stealing Johan Santana’s 2005 AL Cy Young trophy.
Joba Chamberlain (RP-NYY) – Joba reportedly camp to camp looking more like Jabba the Hut than the portly 2010 Joba, but he was hitting 92-94 mph on the radar gun on Saturday, so all is well. With the signing of Rafael Soriano, Chamberlain is set for middle relief this season. It’s curious that the Yankees aren’t stretching him out for a possible starting role, but the decision has apparently already been made that the bullpen is his career path. After a mediocre year in the rotation in 2009 (4.75 ERA), Chamberlain increased his velocity in a relief role last year, recording a 9.7 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. I can see him as trade bait this season in a package for a starting pitcher given the Yankees newfound depth at the back end of the bullpen.
Freddie Freeman (1B-ATL) – Freeman pretty much has first base locked up, but a strong spring would be something we’d love to see. So far so good, as the 21 year-old recorded three doubles in three at-bats in the Braves’ Grapefruit League opener on Saturday. No, they weren’t all liners that barely missed clearing the fence, but we won’t argue with this start. Considering Freeman’s Arizona Fall League stint was cut short due to a thumb injury, this was extra encouraging. Freeman had an .896 OPS in Triple-A as a 20 year-old in 2010, and while we can’t expect big numbers (think .285-15-70) this year, he’s going to be an above-average offensive first baseman for a long time.
Craig Kimbrel (RP-ATL) – Kimbrel is considered the favorite over Jonny Venters for saves this year, but he’d be best-served not taking that job for granted. Saturday, Kimbrel allowed a two-run homer to the Mets’ Fernando Martinez. More alarmingly was that his fastball was in the 89-91 range for the day, this after averaging 95.4 mph a year ago and recording a Marmol-like 17.4 K/9 in his 20.2 big league innings. All the “it’s early” caveats apply here, but a strong second performance would give us far more comfort that we’ll be seeing Kimbrel in the ninth for the Braves this year. Manager Freddie Gonzalez plans to use both in closing situations early in the year until one guy emerges as “the” guy.
Fernando Martinez (OF-NYM) – It seems like Martinez should be 27 by now (who knows, maybe he is), but in reality, he just turned 22 in January. Martinez has been plagued by an assortment of injuries (hamstring/knee in 2010), but he still has some talent. Unfortunately, leg injuries and body growth have forced a move to the OF corners, sapping some of his value as a center fielder. Martinez batted a middling .253/.317/.455. That said, Martinez did homer on Saturday against Atlanta’s Craig Kimbrel. Between injuries, Martinez has racked up 20 home runs in 624 innings, so the power is developing (also witness the .203 ISO last year). What has yet to show a whole lot of progress is his approach at the plate, as Martinez’s EYE in Triple-A last year was just 0.26. The Mets’ outfield is full for the moment, though the Mets seem likely to consider trading Carlos Beltran at some point this year, which could open the door for Martinez if he’s actually healthy at the time.
Eric Young Jr. (2B-COL) – Young is battling for 2B time with Jose Lopez, Mariners cast-off. Young had his 2010 season ended shortened due to a leg injury, but he’s ready to go now and is worth monitoring this spring for one simple reason – stolen bases. Young has 313 minor league stolen bases, a number that translates to 73 per 550 at-bats. He’s a speed demon who also has a career .381 minor league OBP. This could be Young’s last chance at winning a full-time slot given he’s batted just .245/.308/.293 in a few major league stops.
Jose Iglesias (SS-BOS) – We did not have a single entry for Iglesias before this post, so it’s long overdue. After the Red Sox dealt Casey Kelly and Anthony Rizzo to San Diego in the Adrian Gonzalez deal, Iglesias is probably the team’s top remaining prospect. He’s more known for his glove than his bat at this point after a .672 OPS and 0.16 EYE in Double-A last year, but he just turned 21 last month, so there’s still time for his approach at the plate to improve. It’s curious that the Red Sox are pushing him to Triple-A to start this season (according to some reports), as he could probably use another two full years in the minors. Still, the Red Sox already have plenty of offense and seem willing to let Iglesias learn to hit in Boston. He did have two hits in a split-squad game against a college team on Saturday. Marco Scutaro’s contract is up after this year, and Iglesias has passed Jed Lowrie as the team’s shortstop of the future. When he does get called up later this year, don’t expect much in the way of offense.
Ben Francisco (OF-PHI) – It’s fun to peruse box scores no matter the time of year, though here in February, we take what we see with a grain of salt. The Phillies stared Pete Orr, Wilson Valdez, and Jeff Larish alongside Ryan Howard in the infield Saturday, so no, it does not matter who won or lost. Francisco though is a guy to keep an eye on. He tripled, walked, and stole a base Saturday in his two at-bats as he battles for time in the outfield. Francisco batted an impressive .284/.344/.557 versus southpaws last year and just .253/.310/.330 versus RHP’s, though is L/R platoon splits are far less pronounced (50 points of OPS) when you take into account 2008 and 2009 as well. That said, he should see time against most left-handers in place of either Raul Ibanez or rookie Domonic Brown. Should Brown struggle this spring, Francisco could find himself playing nearly every day. Given 400 at-bats (probably on the high side), he could be good for a 15/15 type season.
Aaron Heilman (SP/RP-ARI) – Heilman started Saturday’s game, tossing a pair of scoreless innings as he kicks off the battle for the Dbacks’ final two rotation slots. Following Heilman Saturday was Zach Duke, who allowed one run on five hits in just two innings himself. Heilman is a relative long-shot to win one of the jobs, but so far so far so good. Heilman has been nothing special as a reliever, but durability? For sure. In his five full years as a reliever, Heilman recorded at least 72 innings per year while also improving his command in each of the last two years (BB/9 from 5.5, 4.2, and 3.3 the last three years). We’ll see how this all goes, but I still see Heilman ultimately returning to a relief role this year.
Mark Trumbo (1B-LAA) – Trumbo blasted a two-run homer Saturday off Dodgers’ top pitching prospect Rubby De La Rosa. Not a bad way to start for a guy competing for a spot on the Opening Day roster. Trumbo batted an impressive .299/.366/.575 last year in hitter-friendly Salt Lake with 36 home runs. His 0.46 EYE is nothing special, but he did increase his walk rate from 7% to 10% year over year. There isn’t an obvious place for Trumbo in the everyday lineup, though spelling the rehabbing Kendry Morales at first base earlier in the season is a possibility. It’s too bad he can’t handle third base where this is a gaping hole. More long term, perhaps the Angels consider trading Bobby Abreu or letting him walk, allowing Trumbo and Morales to split 1B/DH duties. Morales also has Scott Boras as his agent, so there’s some risk Morales eventually walks as a free agent.
