Kansas City Royals
Billy Butler 1B – How much will the power develop?
Billy Butler is an intriguing fantasy option once again this year. He is an incredibly talented hitter, but he plays on an awful offensive club and had his power numbers take a disappointing step backwards last season. What we know: Kansas City doesn’t have much immediate offensive help around them, so the RS/RBI numbers will continue to be down for Butler. What we don’t know: Does he breakout and hit 30 homers or leave owners feeling empty (after all how many young, big 1B hit .318 like Butler and only produce the counting numbers he did last season) yet again?
Well, entering the season at age 25, it would be foolish to suggest there is no hope for Butler to develop more power. Due to Butler just starting to enter his peak power years now and the fact that his plate discipline was greatly improved (EYE went from .56 to .88, BB% has increased by more than 1.5% each of past two seasons), there’s a good chance Butler sets a career high in homers this year. Don’t forget, even though his dip from 21 to 15 long balls was disappointing, Butler was a doubles machine in 2010 (hitting 45 of them) just as he was in 2009 (51 doubles). That’s the good news. The bad news: For those of you thinking Butler could have a BIG power breakout, it ain’t gunna happen. There are too many things working against Butler for that to occur this season. First off, he doesn’t get enough loft on his swing. His FB%’s the past four seasons (32.6/34.6/34.6/34.0) are a tad low for a power hitter, and their straight line trend doesn’t indicate improvement is on the way. On top of that Butler doesn’t generate enough raw power: his HR/FB% the last 4 seasons are 8.9/8.2/11.9/8.4. Once again, those numbers are too low for a power hitter and are not trending upwards. On top of this, Butler’s home park doesn’t do him any favors. Fantistics gives Kauffman Field a ballpark factor of 92 for hitters, which is below average, and ESPN HR park factors has it ranked 19th. With all this information in mind, we should expect an improvement from Butler. Fantistics projects him to do just that with 25 HR, 86 RBI and 80 RS, all up from last season. Still, he is just outside the top ten, and should be drafted accordingly. There is just too much for Butler to overcome (team around him, loft issues, raw power issues and a pitcher’s park) to warrant him being picked as a sure fire top 10 1B.
Mike Moustakas 3B – Instant Fantasy Contributor or Alex Gordon repeat?
In 2007, Alex Gordon entered the year as a can’t miss 3B. Well, he missed. So, with KC’s next hot prospect at the hot corner expected to make his debut this season, should we expect him to be an instant fantasy contributor? Or should we expect him to flop like Alex Gordon? Well, Fantistics expects the former, projecting Mike Moustakas to hit .272 with 24 HR and 70+ in both RBI’s and RS. This is tremendous value at the back end of the draft; those numbers have Moustakas ranked just inside the top 15 3B. He’s not Alex Gordon, people. Gordon played just 1 minor league season before being given a starting job the next Spring. Also, Gordon was “the chosen one”. Moustakas shouldn’t have to deal with that amount of pressure as he’s one of a bunch of highly touted Royals’ prospects. When Moustakas makes his debut, he’ll have nearly three times as many professional plate appearances (1660 heading into Spring Training) as Gordon had (576) when he made his debut. Moustakas posted an ISO of .340 in 298 AA appearances last season and an ISO of .271 in 236 AAA appearances, a level that Gordon never saw before turning in his rookie status. My point is it’s foolish to stay away from Moustakas based on the failure of Alex Gordon. Evaluate Moustakas based on Mike Moustakas and you come up with a guy toting immense power potential; he hit 36 HR in just 118 games between AA and AAA last year and that came with strikeout percentages of 16.2 and 11.1 respectively, which are not bad at all for a power hitter.
There is certainly some risk here. Some project Moustakas to strike out too much early in his career, which is certainly possible, and it’s also unclear at what level he will start the season. Moustakas may have a hot Spring and start with the club, or the Royals may wait a couple of months to call Moustakas up to the majors due to salary/contract reasons that would benefit the team by going this route. Either way Moustakas is worth the risk at the back end of the draft due to the power potential we discussed and the general upside he offers. You can always pair him with Mike Aviles or Wilson Betemit to ensure you don’t miss at bats early in the season should Moustakas not break camp a part of the Royals’ Opening Day roster.
Toronto Blue Jays
Frank Francisco, Jason Frasor, Jon Rauch or Octavio Dotel RP’s – Who will close?
Early on in camp, it appears that Frank Francisco has the early lead in the competition for the Jays’ closer job. Manager John Farrell likes that Francisco can get lefties out, and low and behold he is much more adept at that than two of the other three candidates: Jason Frasor and Octavio Dotel. Last season, Francisco had an FIP of 2.98 and xFIP of 4.58 against lefties. Frasor posted marks of 4.16 and 4.68 in those respective categories, while Dotel’s marks were 5.09 and 5.89 respectively. Jon Rauch, one could argue, was equally, perhaps more, effective than Francisco with an FIP of 3.62 and xFIP of 3.99 against left handed hitters.
If Francisco does indeed enter the season as the closer, I think he has the skills to keep the job. Despite losing his job last season, Francisco still pitched well. His GB% was a career best 39.1%, and he struck out 10.25 batters per 9 while maintaining a 3.33 K/BB ratio. It was Francisco’s third straight season with a 3+ K/BB ratio (3.19 in ’08 and 3.80 in ’09). His ERA wasn’t all that great at 3.76, but it was inflated by a BABIP 33 points above his career average. Fantistics projects Francisco to rebound in the ERA and WHIP categories to post respectively solid marks of 3.26 and a 1.20.
The risk here is that, while Francisco should be solid, he is not dominant and a bad start could get him yanked with three other options with closing experience waiting in the wings. Ruach, Frasor and Dotel combined for 47 saves last season, and all have decent skills. Rauch has the best control of the group with a 2.18 BB/9 but is by far the least dominant with a 7.18 K/9. Don’t expect a repeat of his 3.12 ERA, as Rauch’s 3.17 HR/FB% from last season is far from sustainable, particularly now that he is pitching in the Rogers Centre, which was extremely homer happy in ‘10. Frasor and Dotel have nice K rates. Frasor struck out 9.19 per 9 last season, Dotel 10.55 (but was a bit wild). As I said before, Francisco has the skills to keep the job and is probably the best reliever of the bunch. However, he’s not that much better. With four relievers bunched together in terms of skill, this is a tricky situation to read and one I would avoid on draft day or at least until all the other closers with clear cut roles are already chosen.
Brandon Morrow – This year’s breakout pitcher?
Let’s get this out of the way: Yes, Brandon Morrow comes with some risk. He’s had some arm trouble in the past, and he is historically wild (career 5.08 BB/9). But man, the upside is HUGE. Morrow struck out a whopping 10.95 batters per 9 over 26 games started (146.1 IP). No one else with 140 IP even sniffed that. Tim Lincecum was second with a 9.79 mark. On top of Morrow’s dominance, we saw some improvements elsewhere in his game, particularly on the types of balls he allowed into play. In 2009, with time split between starting and relief duty with the Mariners, Morrow allowed a LD% of 20.1 and FB% of 42.6. Those numbers dipped to 17.8 and 41.8 respectively. It was the third year in a row Morrow’s FB% dropped, and also the third year in a row his HR/FB% dropped. The control was the best of Morrow’s career as he walked a still high 4.06 batters per 9. But hey, that gave him a 2.70 K/BB ratio which you’ll certainly take from someone with Morrow’s dominance. If we delve closer, though, we get a glimpse at just how high Morrow’s potential is. After a shaky first couple of months, Morrow was brilliant from June on. In 89.1 IP from June until the end of the season, Morrow struck out 11.28 batters per 9 while walking 3.5 per 9, good for a K/BB ratio of 3.22. WOW! Consider me sold. The best part is Morrow’s ERA was unlucky last season, keeping his market value down headed into drafts this year. It sat at 4.49, but Morrow experienced a BABIP that was 41 points above his career average and a LOB% that was 4.3 points below his career average. His FIP (3.16) and xFIP (3.63) are better indicators of how Morrow actually pitched. As I said before, the potential here is unbelievable. He’s no lock to be great by any means (not a lot of experience, mishandled early in his career, wild in terms of control), but I don’t remember the last time a pitcher with Morrow’s K potential, let alone all around potential, was available in the mid-late double digit rounds of a draft.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Joel Hanrahan named closer
The Pirates have named Joel Hanrahan their closer. The 29 YO reliever is intriguing. There are certainly some good signs. His FIP has dropped three consecutive seasons (6.08/3.84/3.19/2.62). Not surprisingly his huge growth in K/9 is the catalyst for this trend (7.59/9.92/10.13/12.92), and his control is improving at the same time (BB/9 of 6.71/4.48/4.78/3.36). These positive trends seem to point towards Hanrahan becoming a solid closer, and there’s certainly some upside here as indicated by his 2.62 FIP and 2.77 xFIP in 2010. I’m inclined to think that 2010 was a career year for Hanrahan so to speak and that he regresses this season. Fantistics does indeed project Hanrahan to regress, calling for his peripherals to take a step back (11.3 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9). These numbers would still leave Hanrahan with good enough peripherals to hold the job down for the season, but aside from his K’s, his ERA and WHIP will be below average. Also, there’s a chance for an early season blow up if Hanrahan’s pre 2010 control issues rear their ugly head in April. Draft him as a low end closer (bottom 10), but he’s near the top of that list due to the possibility that he could recreate his 2010 campaign.
Should Hanrahan lose his job, Evan Meek would likely step in. Meek does not have the usual closer makeup. His K/9 is a bit low for a reliever at 7.88, and his control is just okay leading to an average 2.26 K/BB ratio. Unlike most closers, though, Meek is not FB risky. In fact, he’s just the opposite, having obtained groundball percentages of 52.1 and 56.7 the past two seasons. As a result, he’s given up only 7 homers in 127 IP over the past two seasons. At the end of the day, Meek is just okay, and I’d rather have a closer with a better K rate. If he takes over the job, it’ll be more a result of a Hanrahan blow up than it will be Meek wowing people, barring an unforeseen improvement in his peripherals. Please keep in mind that Meek will not repeat last season’s 2.14 ERA or 1.05 WHIP. That mark was very lucky as it was aided by a 77.8% LOB% (a career high for Meek and not in line for a pitcher with his K rate) and a very low .225 BABIP. As a result, Fantistics has Meek’s ERA and WHIP heavily stepping back to marks of 3.21 and 1.31. The only way I’m drafting him is as insurance in slow drafts or draft champions’ leagues (ones with no free agency). Otherwise, I’ll keep my eye on him as a free agent and speculatively add him based on the respective performances of him and Hanrahan.
How will the youngsters fare?
Last season, a couple of young hitters made their debuts for the Pirates; both caught the attention of onlookers in different ways. Third baseman Pedro Alvarez flashed some power by hitting 16 HR in 95 games while outfielder Jose Tabata showed some skills on the basepaths by swiping 19 bases in 102 games while hitting .299. So what should fantasy owners expect from these sophomores in 2011?
Well, Pedro Alvarez’s power is for real. Fantistics projects the 24 YO 3B to hit 27 homers and drive in 91 runs. This isn’t just because of Alvarez’s 16 homers last season; he has always shown serious power. In three different minor league stops (high A, AA, and AAA) over the past three seasons, Alvarez posted respective ISO’s of .239/.257/.256. So, the .205 ISO he posted as a rookie last season in the majors can be improved upon. Be aware that Alvarez does come with some batting average risk, though. He has always struck out a lot (28.8 K%/26.6/28.1 during his A+/AA/AAA time the past two seasons), and not surprisingly that weakness was magnified during his first go around against major league pitching as he struck out 34.3% of the time. On top of that, despite Alvarez’s power, he doesn’t always make the greatest of contact. Don’t expect Alvarez to overcome his K issues and contact issues (14.8 LD% last season) in just one year; Fantistics has him pegged for a .267 batting average.
Jose Tabata appears to be the yin to Alvarez’s yang. While Alvarez hit for power and lacked speed and a good batting average, Tabata was just the opposite. Tabata is a speedster who knows to put the ball on the ground. His 59.4 GB% led way to 29 combined infield and bunt hits for Tabata, comprising almost a full quarter of all of his hits. On top of that, Tabata puts the ball in play (85.9% contact rate). Tabata may not hit .300 like he nearly did last season, but fantasy owners should take comfort in knowing that the bottom is unlikely to fall out on him in the BA department due to his skill set. Plus, there’s room for Tabata’s walk rate to grow. It was just 6.3% after he was called up last season, but it was 9.1% in 53 games at AAA prior to his call up. All this adds up as good news for a base stealer. We currently have Tabata projected to hit .284 with 87 runs and 32 SB’s, but there’s some upside to those numbers if Tabata (only 22 YO) can make good on his potential to increase his walk rate and extra base hit percentage.
Austin Jackson OF (DET) - Don’t just look at Austin Jackson’s high BABIP last season and dismiss him as a fluke. Yes, his .335 singles average was high, and we expect to see some correction in his batting average (.294 to .280) as a result, but don’t let that hide his skills. Part of the reason Jackson was able to sustain such a high singles average, and thus a high overall batting average, is his ability to make good contact and his speed. Jackson had a crazy high LD% of 24.2 last season. He also put the ball on the ground a lot (48.4%), which is perfect for this speedster as he reached on 29 combined infield and bunt hits. Those things will help Jackson to maintain a decent BA despite a poor EYE (.28), which should rise in his second season. On top of this, Jackson should see a slight bump in his power numbers. As our projection notes state, he has tremendous bat speed which should allow the 24 YO to see a jump in his HR, ISO and RBI’s this year and even more so in years to come.
Justin Verlander SP (DET) - Although Verlander has already established himself as a top flight fantasy SP, he still comes with some upside. For starters, he has gotten batters to chase pitches outside of the zone more and more with each passing season. Here are batters outside swing percentages against Verlander from ’05-’10: 15.4/22.8/23.2/24.5/29.4/31.9. Also, last season his first strike rate and swinging strike percentages were the second best of his career. It’s not unthinkable that Verlander’s K rate could go back to what it was in 2009 when he struck out 10.09 batters per 9.
Jason Heyward OF (ATL) - We have Heyward pegged for a 9 homer increase during his second season and for good reason. The 21 YO has some underlying peripherals that indicate he could develop into an elite power hitter in time: a 14.6 BB% and 16.8 HR/FB%. The high walk rate shows Heyward is a very patient hitter, remarkably so in fact for someone his age, and that is often indicative of a power hitter. The 16.8 HR/FB% shows Heyward’s raw power. That is a solid number, and it should only grow as Heyward is just 21 YO. With those two skills at work Heyward should easily obtain our 27 homer projection as long as he increases the loft in his swing slightly (55.1 GB% in 2010). Look for him to put the ball in the air a bit more in April; if he does, it’ll be a good sign he’s going to reward owners with some hefty power numbers.
Alexi Casilla SS (MIN) - With SS extremely weak this year and basically a crapshoot following the top 7 off the board, why not load up on other positions (assuming you miss out on any of the top tier SS) and take a gamble on someone like Casilla way late? Casilla, the favorite to start at SS for the Twins, made some tremendous strides at the plate last year. His EYE was a career best .76, and not surprisingly that led to a career best ISO of .118. The improvement in plate discipline and pop put Casilla in line for a decent batting average. This is good news for a successful base stealer; Casilla is 35 for 39 in stolen base attempts over his career.
Lance Berkman 1B/OF (STL) - Yes Berkman (35) is getting up there, but his poor season last year was more a result of injuries than age related decline. If that had been the case, I don’t think we would have seen Berkman’s EYE remain a stellar .91 and right in line with his career mark of .93. His chase percentage of 20.9% is right in line with his past four years, and also indicates that Berkman’s plate discipline did not wane. He’s well worth his current 25th round ADP (assuming 12 team league) as we have him projected for a nice bounce back.
Ricky Nolasco SP (FLA) - Admittedly, I swung and missed on Nolasco last season; he posted a subpar ERA for the second straight season. With an ADP of 21.02 in 12 team leagues, though, I like him once again this season. At that price there is very little risk. Although he is FB risky, Nolasco’s sparkling K/BB ratios indicate a breakout season is possible. He has posted K/BB ratios of 4.43/4.43/4.45 the past three seasons, which is incredibly consistent and much higher than that of any other pitcher going after the first 20 rounds.
Leo Nunez RP (FLA) - Nunez is another Florida pitcher I like to rebound. His surface stats might not indicate it, but Nunez was incredibly improved last season. His GB% grew from 41.1% to 54%, while his K/9 rose and BB/9 lowered leading to a much improved 3.38 K/BB ratio (2.22 last season). Both Nunez’s FIP and xFIP were sub-3, but an unlucky BABIP that was 32 points higher than his career average added points to Nunez’s ERA and WHIP. He’s currently a steal as the most up to date ADP’s have him as the 34th relief pitcher off the board!
John Lackey SP (BOS) - Look for John Lackey to bounce back a bit this season. His BABIP last year was .319 (his worst since 2005 and 13 points above his career average), and his LOB% was 69.3% (the lowest of his career and 3.2 percentage points below his career average). Along with the normalization of his BABIP and LOB%, Lackey should adjust in his second season facing the AL East and with Fenway Park as his home park. Still, his current ADP does not leave too much room for error.
Chris Ray RP (SEA) - Looking for a saves sleeper? Chris Ray may factor into the equation early on in the season. Ray is supposedly fully healthy and was once considered a closer on the rise for the Orioles. David Aardsma, the incumbent closer, underwent hip surgery in December and will miss the beginning of the season. The early favorite to fill the role is Brandon League, but he has a low K/9 and consistently high HR/FB%. If Ray is sharp this Spring, he could get some save chances come April.
Homer Bailey SP (CIN) - Looking for a SP deep in the draft with some upside? How about Homer Bailey? The former 1st round draft pick was once the organization’s top prospect but struggled at the major league level. However, Bailey (25) returned from an injury in August last season and appeared to turn a corner. He missed a lot of bats, striking out just over a batter an inning in his last ten starts of the season. Getting whiffs was something Bailey had previously struggled with at the ML level, posting K/9 of 5.56/4.46/6.83 in his first three seasons.
