Dodgers
Last week I highlighted the obvious situations to watch – closer and left field. This week we’ll dig a bit deeper and focus on third base and what we can expect from Don Mattingly in terms of a lineup.
Third base: Casey Blake is obviously the incumbent here, but even the 37 year-old Blake has acknowledged that he’s best-suited for less than full time duty. He did hit 17 homers last year, but a .248/.320/.407 batting line is far from ideal for a corner infielder, as Blake’s contact rate clocked in at a career-low 73% and he drew fewer walks. Blake did hit a very good .314/.388/.507 versus southpaws, but the Dodgers don’t have a platoon partner for him at this point. If I had to guess, he’ll play in around 120 games this year, with Juan Uribe and Ivan DeJesus Jr. filling in the gaps.
Lineup: If it were me, I’d use this lineup versus RHP: Furcal, Loney, Kemp, Ethier, Uribe, Gibbons, Blake, Barajas. Versus LHP I’d go: Furcal, Blake, Kemp, Uribe, Thames, Ethier, Barajas, Loney. Blake, as we discussed earlier, probably needs to be in a platoon/part-time role these days, but he should play against all LHP. Loney and Ethier really need to turn things around versus southpaws this year or they are headed for semi-platoons as well. All in all it’s an unspectacular lineup, with Don Mattingly crossing his fingers that Kemp and Loney turn around poor 2010’s and Ethier take his game up a notch.
Giants
The Pen: Brian Wilson arrived in camp with a bit of back pain, but it’s not expected to be something that will delay him at all. Anytime you talk about a sore back with a guy that throws that hard it’s something worth monitoring, but Wilson should again be among the league’s top closers this season. Wilson has increased his strikeout rate (9.7, 10.3, 11.2) and lowered his walk rate (4.0, 3.4, 3.1) in each of the last two seasons. The Giants’ bullpen is a bit underrated, as though Jeremy Affeldt took a step back last year, Sergio Romo was dynamite (2.18 ERA, 10.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9).
1B/LF: It’s too early to tell what the Giants do with Brandon Belt, but this is THE situation to watch in camp. As we discussed last week, the 22 year-old Belt slugged an impressive .352/.455/.620 with a .94 EYE across three minor league levels a year ago and is now competing for a big league spot. Scouts credit Belt’s huge year to a swing that was overhauled prior to the year, so don’t discount these numbers as flukes. If I had to guess, Pat Burrell opens as the left fielder with Aubrey Huff occupying first base, but a huge spring from Belt puts him right in the mix. Of course the Giants could delay arbitration eligibility / free agency by keeping him in Triple-A for a couple months a la Buster Posey. Posey hit .315/.351/.444 last spring and would up spending a couple months in Triple-A anyway.
Padres
The Chase Headley Situation: It’s time yet again for a “best shape of their life” story. This week’s focus will be on Chase Headley. Headley has been a disappointment for the Padres and fantasy owners, batting a paltry .264/.327/.375 a year ago. He reportedly put on 20 pounds over the winter, and it’s been described as a “good” 20, meaning I guess that he’s stronger. For his big league career, Headley has homered just once every 47 at-bats, so a bit more strength is certainly welcome. Keep in mind though that last year’s 17 stolen bases could trend down with the additional weight. Headley is 27, so time may be running out on his seizing a long-term starting role, but on the plus side, he did improve his contact rate to 77% last year. Now we just need 20 homers.
The return of Kyle Blanks: Kyle Blanks isn’t expected to be ready to play in games until May or June, as he’s recovering from Tommy John surgery. Keep him in mind though in deeper keeper leagues, as Blanks was a 20+ homer guy in the minors for three straight seasons while also making very good contact for a guy listed at 6’6” 270 lbs. For now, the Padres are going with the Hawpe/Cantu 1B platoon, but for a team that is probably in transition mode post-Agone, Blanks will get a look at some point this year.
Diamondbacks
Willy Freaking Mo: You probably are best-served filing this one under “meaningless”, but Wily Mo Pena was the talk of Dbacks camp on Wednesday, reportedly homering on eight of nine swings. Of course doing so off 80 mph fastballs right down the middle are a bit different than repeating the accomplishment against the likes of Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw, but hey, what else are we going to talk about BEFORE the spring games even start? Pena has a good shot at a bench job, and with left field currently occupied by the likes of Xavier Nady, Brandon Allen, and Gerardo Parra, who knows? Before getting too excited however, Pena last spent time in the big leagues in 2008, a year in which he posted a .502 OPS (no misprint).
First base: Chase Field is a pretty good place for home-run hitters, so keep Russell Branyan on your radar. He was signed to a minor league deal this month and will compete with Juan Miranda and others for time at first base. Branyan homered 25 times in 376 at-bats last year in Cleveland and Seattle, so the power is still clearly there. He’s pretty much a one-category fantasy player however, so make sure you have high average guys elsewhere to compensate. \
Jacob McGee (RP-TB) – McGee said Wednesday that he wants to be the Rays’ closer this year. Of course Joel Peralta and Kyle Farnsworth probably “want” to as well, but it’s good to see the kid with that sort of confidence. McGee missed all of 2009 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but he returned better than expected in 2010, posing a 10.2 K/9 in 88.1 Double-A innings before thoroughly dominating in a 17.1 innings stint in Triple-A (27:3 K:BB) while getting a cup of coffee in Tampa Bay in September. This year he’ll be expected to approach 70 innings with the Rays, a number that could result in 80+ strikeouts given his stuff. I’m not sure there are really any “sleepers” in fantasy baseball anymore given the increasing access to information, but he’s an intriguing pick nonetheless.
Anthony Reyes (SP-CLE) – Reyes was reportedly throwing 90-96 mph with his fastball in Instructional League this fall, and according to manager Manny Acta, Reyes could win a rotation spot with a strong spring. As a former top prospect with the Cardinals, Reyes has been a disappointment, and already has one recent Tommy John surgery to his credit. That said, the Cleveland rotation is wide open and Reyes does have a solid prospect pedigree, so put him on your spring watch list.
Conor Jackson (OF/1B-OAK) – It’s been a long road back from Valley Fever, but Jackson has added 20 pounds this winter and is now back to his normal playing weight. His career has been disappointing, but Jackson WAS a first-round pick, and there’s still some talent here. Jackson hasn’t been fantasy-relevant since 2008, and though he’ll never be a big power source, he does have a .92 career EYE. Daric Barton will play first base and the outfield is full, but Jackson could get enough at-bats to be AL-only worthy at some point this year.
Ryan Ludwick (OF-SD) – Ludwick’s days in San Diego are clearly numbered, as first he’s a making more than six figures. Second, Ludwick posted just a .631 OPS for the Padres after coming over via trade last year, and with the club in a youth movement mode, he’s a poor fit. He doesn’t have a lot in the way of competition for a starting OF spot, but once Kyle Blanks is ready to return from Tommy John surgery or the Padres decide to go with a guy like Aaron Cunningham or Chris Denorfia, Ludwick will likely be let go.
Jordan Walden (RP-LAA) – Most prognosticators figure Fernando Rodney is going to lose the closer job at some point this year, so it’s natural to speculate on who will replace him. Most of the speculation I’ve seen centers around Scott Downs and Kevin Jepsen, but don’t discount Walden. Former top draft pick and prospect. Throws in the upper 90s. Struck out 23 batters in 15.1 impressive big league innings (13.5 K/9) a year ago. He also has a very good slider and seems to have found a home in the bullpen, so look for the Angels to groom him for the job this year. When he takes over is anyone’s guess, but I’d say July.
Freddie Freeman (1B-ATL) – You’ll see much written about Freeman, who has been handed the Atlanta first base job despite being all of 21. Of course you can point to a success story in Jason Heyward, who batted .277/.393/.456 in his age 20 season in 2010. Freeman doesn’t have quite the upside of a Heyward, but he should have no problem being at least an average first baseman this year. Average being in the .280/.350/.460 range. There’s still room for a bit more power growth, but we’ve never going to see much more than 25 homers. It will eventually come with a .300 average and plenty of doubles, so we won’t complain.
Adrian Gonzalez (1B-BOS) – We all know which ballpark, Petco or Fenway, is better for hitters, so we won’t go there. The only real concern about Gonzalez relates to his offseason shoulder surgery, but after taking 30 swings off the batting tee on Tuesday, he appears on track to be ready by Opening Day. It’s not a concern at this point that he’s a little behind the other hitters. For a guy coming off four consecutive 30+ homer seasons in a ballpark where flyballs go to die, I wouldn’t laugh if anyone predicted 50 from Gonzalez this year. Playing in the AL East, he also won’t have to face the likes of Lincecum, Kershaw, and Jimenez.
Michael Brantley (OF-CLE) – Brantley reportedly struggled with his mechanics at the plate last season saying that he had a hard time “seeing the ball”. While the question “why couldn’t anyone figure that out last year?” comes to mind, perhaps it’s partly relevant to his batting just .246 for the Tribe in 2010. Brantley has a track record of walking more than he strikes out in the minors, but had just a 0.58 EYE in Cleveland last year. He’s currently slotted in left field, and while there’s limited power potential in his bat, there’s 40 SB potential in his legs if he can get his swing straightened out.
Joe Mauer (C-MIN) – It may be premature to discuss, but I have to wonder if Mauer’s transition to 3B or the outfield is going to come quicker than expected. Mauer received an injection in his knee this week, the same knee that was scoped in December. Much of his $23 million a year salary lies in his ability to stay behind the plate, so don’t look for a move any time soon, but long-term keeper leaguers will want to keep this in mind. There simply isn’t precedent for a guy his size being able to handle 140 games a year behind the plate for too long. It’s too early to tell whether he’s hit his HR peak (28 in 2009), as I see last year’s nine as an aberration, but a modest rise to 15 wouldn’t be too surprising.
Mark Trumbo (1B-LAA) – I’ve seen Trumbo play “live” on a handful of occasions, with the last being in Reno where he hit a pair of long home runs and nearly decapitated the third baseman with a line drive. Salt Lake is a hitter’s paradise (as is the PCL), but a .299/.366/.575 batting line is impressive nonetheless. He strikes out a bit, but a 76% CT% is acceptable given his power and 10% BB%. It’s unfortunate that the Angels no longer view him as a third baseman (he’s huge), so that leaves first base, corner OF, and DH. Those are all occupied, though Trumbo could see some DH at-bats vs. LHP and perhaps spell Kendry Morales on occasion, particularly early in the year. Either way, he’s going to have to beat out Brandon Wood for a spot on the 25-man, and that could be troublesome considering Wood is out of options.
