Freddie Freeman – Braves - I am supposed to highlight some of the Braves' position battles as we go along this spring but I am going to start out talking about a player that isn’t in one of them. Freddie Freeman is plan “A” and “B” for the Braves at first base. He’s hoping to follow in the footsteps of his roommate Jason Heyward and his 461 AAA ABs, as one of the International Leagues youngest players, suggests that he has the skill set.
Freddie posted a .319 (with a .351 BHIP%)/.518/.896 slash line with 18 HRs and an 18.2% K rate. That’s heady stuff for a 20 year old with 149 AA ABs under his belt. We are projecting .279/19/76 this year. I am ok with that, although his progression looks like one that could mean some real struggles in the jump to the majors. I could see some rough patches this year and there are lingering questions about whether he’ll develop top-shelf power. But his long-term outlook is the real win here.
He’s 21 for most of this season, and he will likely add 10-15 pounds to his 6-5 frame over the next couple of seasons which is going to bring his power in line with the curve for the position. And the Braves know how to do this. They know how to guide prospects in the last jump. So I believe Freddie spends the year as the Braves. primary starter. There is a lot of ceiling here for Freddie especially if his power comes in. But you may have to sit through an uneven first season.
The Braves will approach the season with righty Craig Kimbrel and lefty Jonny Venters as their 9th inning options. Venters fanned 10.0/9 in 83 IP last year with the Braves, his first in the majors, holding opponents to a .201 OBA. Righties hit just .206 off of him. He also threw groundballs at a 68.4% clip allowing fly balls at a 16.5% rate, averaging 94.6 mph on his fastball …
Right about now you are probably thinking “Craig who?” …
I’d be right there with you too but Craig’s 20.2 IP with the Braves last year was equally impressive with a 0.44 ERA, 17.4 K/9 (the highest ever K/9 for a pitcher with 20+ IP), .125 OBA (with an only slightly favorable BHIP%), while throwing 95.4 mph on average. Craig actually threw fly balls at a 50% clip but none left the yard. He was also helped by a 92.0% LOB% last year because his 7.0/9 BB rate led to a 1.21 WHIP … And oh ya … those 20.2 IP are the extent of his MLB career.
Venters’ punch out ability is a relatively new-found skill. He fanned just 5.7/9 in his last full season in AAA in 2009 (91.1 IP) which allows us to wonder about how soft that rate is. Craig however has some supporting history behind his numbers including, unfortunately, his control issues which are the biggest concern here. I think the Braves see Venters as a hedge for Kimbrel while he screws down his control issues, and they hope Venters’ performance level holds.
Kimbrel is the guy to have in the long run, but that schedule is hard to pin down at this point. For the first half of the season both will contribute in the save column but Kimbrel looks like a pretty good facsimile of a primary at the point. We’ll keep you posted throughout the spring. The value of both of these players could change quite a bit between here and draft day.
Adrian Gonzalez – Red Sox – The Sox said on Monday that Arian Gonzalez has been cleared to hit off a tee following October surgery on his right labrum. He took 20 swings off a tee in Fort Myers, and will continue to hit off a tee for the rest of the week. Gonzalez says he is right on his pre-surgery schedule. The Sox hope to see him taking live BP right around the time when games begin next week. Adrian didn’t feel his aching shoulder was a huge hindrance last year, but admitted the injury did cause a change in his swing that he’s anxious to dump. Of course the big story here is his escape from Petco to Fenway. His slash line split over the last three years is .257/.439/.823 at home vs. .310/.599/.989 on the road. None of that includes Fenway which is as much tailored for him, as Petco works against him. We are looking for big things here and physically his panel is green.
Dustin Pedroia – Red Sox – You won’t get any Dustin Pedroia news from Red Sox camp today as he gets a personal day. No baseball-related issues here and all seems well with this Dirt Dawg’s surgically repaired left paw.
Cliff Lee – Phillies – Lee is downplaying talk of a strained left latissimus dorsi suffered over the winter. He says he has strengthened the area after not throwing for a few days, and all will be well by the end of camp. He should have some idea of how this strain has progressed because he has a history of similar problems that have cost him time in the past. There’s no need for the Phillies or Lee to fraudulently downplay this so we’ll take them at their word. And there’s no need to rush him either so we’ll be patient. Lee’s performance level for 2010 was rock solid. In fact his 1.00 WHIP suggests his 3.31 ERA might have deserved to even be a bit lower. His inhuman 0.8/9 walk rate was better than his 1.4/9 in 08 and his 1.7/9 in 09, but he can afford a slight regression and still be very good. That walk rate becomes important again in Philly as his margin for error shrinks a bit in his new home. His ERA will lift a hair this year but he’ll probably gain 2-4 more wins and turn in a solid payback for what undoubtedly will be a steep price this spring. Cliff qualifies as a low end #1 fantasy starter in deep leagues, you are better off if he’s your #2.
Domonic Brown – Phillies - Domonic Brown has the inside track on the RF job in Philly, but that became evident when the Phillies let Jason Werth walk. The standard view of Brown is that he is an athletic, toolsy speed guy, but I think there might be even more there. His zone command appears to be the governing factor here. But putting his 38% K rate in 62 MLB ABs at the end of the year aside for the moment, he whittled that K rate from 25.2% to 21.5% last year over two ML levels while maintaining a solid walk rate. He’s reining his zone, well into just his second thousand pro ABs.
I see Darryl Strawberry every time I see this kid play. I feel confident Domonic can produce 20/20 this year depending how long he takes to make the level adjustment, and 25/25 isn’t out of the question. In fact he could have a couple of 30/30 seasons in him, especially in Philly where his migration to the middle of the lineup may be slowed by, well, what annually will be a very good lineup. Come to think of it David Wright may be a better career template here. Either way, in terms of freshman you don’t see many players more enticing than Domonic, and on top of that you don’t find too many better bets.
Chien-Ming Wang – Nationals – After meeting with the Nationals coaching staff Wang decided to incorporate a delivery change into the rehabbing of his shoulder. Wang had major surgery last summer and the party line is that everyone is more than please where he is physically. The Nationals staff has changed his arm slot a bit, lowering his elbow. Wang is taking to the change well and incorporating it quickly. The intended result of the slot shift is to bring the sink and action back to his fastball. That’s TBD. It’s important because the Nats rotation is more fluid than the Potomac at this point. By attrition Wang may become a factor at some point. I don’t think that point is draft day however. Follow but do not engage, unless you hear otherwise.
Cole Kimball – Washington Nationals – Bryce Harper turned a lot of heads in the Nationals’ camp yesterday, and we’ll talk about him a lot as the spring goes on, but Cole Kimball is making some waves as well. Last year was the 6-3/225, 25-year-old RHP’s second as a reliever and it ended in AA Harrisburg where he fanned 12.3/9 in 54 IP. Sure, he walked 5.1/9 but when he wasn’t doing that he was holding hitters to a .166 OBA. He went to Arizona in the fall and pitched well, inching another step or two in the Nationals’ picture. Cole is big, physical, and only knows one gear, max effort. There’s nothing subtle about him, but he can be tough to hit. He also has all of his minor league options so he’s unlikely to stick this spring.
Alex White – Indians – Manager Manny Acta wisely ended all the speculation regarding Alex White, saying on Monday that he was not competing for a major league spot. That will allow one of the Tribe’s top prospects to simply learn and progress during camp. The 22-year old had a strong campaign between A and AA last season. He could easily see a few starts with the big club this year but everyone would be better served if he saw 15 minor league starts first. Alex is still installing new mechanics and trying to develop an off speed offering he can rely on, but he’s a bull dog, very coachable and has some drop. He projects, eventually, as a top-half-of-the-rotation guy and may even have a #2 ceiling, but not this year.
Jorge Posada – Yankees – Jorge worked a little with the catchers on Monday but stopped at actually assuming the position behind the plate or making throws to second base. He is still an emergency-only option as a catcher for the Bombers. Make sure you understand your league’s catching eligibility rules as they pertain to Posada.
Mark Teahen - White Sox – Teahen is in a bit of a battle for the third base job with the White Sox. Ozzie Guillen says he wants to make the decision relatively early in camp between Teahen and rookie Brent Morel. In January Guillen said third base was Morel’s job to lose. Monday’s promise of a quick decision fits the theory that any kind of competition is somewhat of a dog and pony show, but no matter how Ozzie feels I am sure he’s going to want to watch a few spring games before he commits.
Morel doesn’t yet project to have even average power for the position but he is a good contact hitter has gap power and can chip in an occasional SB. More importantly to the White Sox he’s a plus defender at third. What that means to you is that his defense is another way he can win the job and stay in the lineup as he finds his MLB feet. He’s also 6-2/220 and he is still 23 until the end of April so there may be some power bloom left.
Teahen is likely headed for diminished playing time. He has some position flexibility so he can find some time at first or in the outfield as well. That doesn’t make him much more viable however.
Derek Lee – Orioles – Buck Showalter says Lee is ahead of schedule with the rehab of the surgically repaired torn ligament in his thumb. Lee had surgery in November. You have to figure in the thumb issue when dealing with Lee’s 2010. Hand injuries, especially thumbs wreak havoc with hitters. The real question is how much was the thumb and how much of his decline was age-related. Hard to tell. His zone command slipped a little last year and his swing percentages inside and outside of the zone each show three-year declines. I think there’s some rebound here based on his health but his skills are clearly declining. So when it’s all added up I think we are looking at a pretty predictable .280/20/90 season.
Carlos Lee – Astros - Lee yesterday blamed his problems in 2010 on … well … luck. "At one point in the season, everything I hit was an out," said Lee. "I hit hard, soft, whatever, it was an out. Overall I made really good contact all year long. I didn't strike out much and just couldn't get any hits. At the end of the year, I know my numbers were down, but I still hit 24 homers and had 90 RBIs. It's not Carlos Lee, but it wasn't bad, though." … All right … now he’s working my side of the street. But is he right? You know what? To an extent he is. Carlos posted an unfavorable .238 BHIP% as opposed to his .286 career rate. His BB% rate slipped to 5.7% which isn’t good but he fanned at 9.8%, this despite a 10% jump in his chase percentage. He certainly made contact. But did he make “really good contact”? That’s less true. His line drive percentage dropped to 15.6%, down from 20.1% in 2009 and 21.2% in 2008. I think Lee’s average rebounds quite a bit, but his power halcyon days are behind him. He’ll likely top his 2010 power totals, but not by much.
Carlos Gonzalez – Diamondbacks – Carlos Gonzalez reported to camp with 22 additional, but intentionally-additional pounds. Gonzalez says he felt worn down at the end of last season and he hopes that his new body will make for a better finish. Just for the record, his second half came in at .363/.598/.1.091 with 17 HRs and 57 RBI.
Jeremy Hellickson – Rays – Jeremy Hellickson was really pleased on Monday with the progress his strained hamstring has made. Jeremy strained his hamstring stretching last week. He played catch for about 10 minutes and continued treatment. Hellickson said he hopes to throw off the mound in the next “two or three days”. This doesn’t yet put him too far off the camp pace.
