Today we’ll tour the NL West sans the Rockies…
Arizona Diamondbacks:
First base: Contenders for this slot include Juan Miranda, Russell Branyan, Xavier Nady, and Brandon Allen. Allen and Nady could also slot in left field if they aren’t selected for first. Branyan/Nady would make for an interesting platoon, but neither offers much to get excited about. Miranda is the darkhorse here. He’s considered by some to be the early front-runner after batting .289/.371/.495 for the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate in Scranton a year ago. The power isn’t what you would want in a first baseman, but he can get on base and he probably feels like he has something to prove after not getting a chance in New York. Allen is also intriguing, as I saw lots of him in Triple-A Reno last season where he homered 25 times in just 371 at-bats while posting a .405 OBP. A strong spring gets Allen regular big league at-bats, and while his skillset is that of a .260ish hitter, he’s also got 30+ HR pop.
Back end of the rotation – The top three slots are set with Joe Saunders, Daniel Hudson, and Ian Kennedy. That leaves a pair of openings for Barry Enright, Zach Duke, Armando Galarraga, and Aaron Heilman, who is supposedly converting to the rotation (good luck there). Thanks to a .251 BABIP, Enright managed to post a 3.91 ERA, but it’s unlikely repeatable given these numbers: 4.5 K/9 and 1.8 HR/9. He’s probably a favorite for one of the slots given his solid minor league track record. It also doesn’t hurt that the competition is what it is. Overall, it’s hard to recommend any of these secondary candidates.
Los Angeles Dodgers:
Left field: The Dodgers’ limited resources are best highlighted by the situation in left field, where the team has gone from Manny Ramirez to a hodgepodge of journeymen and even worse. Contenders for playing time include the likes of lefty-smasher Marcus Thames, Jay Gibbons, Tony Gwynn’s kid, and a handful of rookies that aren’t ready (Jerry Sands, Trayvon Robinson, etc.). Ultimately this should come down to a Thames/Gibbons platoon, as Gwynn’s bat is a bit light to be nice about it. He’s best-served as a late-inning defensive replacement and pinch-runner.
Thames is interesting. We know he can hit southpaws (.838 career OPS), but he also smashed seven homers in 82 at-bats versus right-hand pitching a year ago, so there’s a possibility he could see upwards of 400 at-bats for an offense-starved Dodgers squad. Gibbons went three years between big league at-bats prior to picking up the maple for LA a year ago, but his .819 OPS puts him in contention for further time in 2011. Ultimately Trayvon Robinson is the guy to watch, but he needs further seasoning in the minors.
Closer: Jonathan Broxton gets first crack at this job, but with a 7.13 post-break ERA a year ago, his status is somewhat questionable. More than one analyst has noted that Broxton’s downfall began with a Joe Torre special – a 48-pitch stint in July, though that would be a somewhat simple explanation for Broxton’s struggles. Most important for Broxton is improving upon last year’s 4.0 BB/9, a mark that has increased from 2007’s 2.7 number. Hong-Chih Kuo waits in the wings, though the Dodgers’ LH reliever situation is rather questionable with Ron Mahay and troubled youngster Scott Elbert in the mix. It’s pretty clear Don Mattingly would prefer the flexibility of using Kuo in the seventh or eighth innings.
San Diego Padres:
The Heath Bell situation: Simply, it makes no sense for the Padres to keep or extend Bell’s deal given the recent trades of Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez. From a fantasy perspective, that means keeping an eye on Mike Adams and Luke Gregerson and determining who will be Bell’s successor is critical. Gregerson is my choice – younger and on the upswing coming off a season in which he posted a 10.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. Adams was no slouch himself with 9.9 and 3.1 marks respectively, so the Padres flipping Bell for prospects makes far too much sense for it not to happen.
Job battles: There really aren’t any unless you can bring yourself to get excited about Cory Luebke versus Wade LeBlanc for the No. 5 starter slot. Sure, it’s Petco and who wins that job could have some NL-only relevance, but neither of these guys are going to front any sort of rotation in the near future. Luebke does have some upside as evidenced by an 7.6 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in his minor league career (430 IP), but he’s never going to be a big strikeout guy. LeBlanc? Nice in spurts, but you can do better.
San Francisco Giants:
What happens with Brandon Belt?: Belt is the latest Giants’ prospect du jour, and after
batting .352/.455/.620 with a .94 EYE across three minor league levels a year ago, the 22 year-old is getting a legitimate shot at a big league job this spring. If he impresses, he’s the first baseman and Aubrey Huff moves to left field. If not, Pat Burrell is the everyday left fielder. Belt isn’t a huge power guy, but 25 homers, double-digit stolen bases, and a solid average are his calling cards. Plenty to like here in keeper leagues.
Pablo “The Situation” Sandoval: Predictably, we’re already hearing stories of how great a shape Sandoval is in entering spring training. I tend to discount these types of stories, but Sandoval has a lot to lose here. A year after batting .330/.387/.556 with 25 homers and a legion of fans, Sandoval became a near-afterthought in the Giants’ World Series run. In fact, if there was a fatter guy in the league in 2010, I’d love to meet him. Sandoval has reportedly moved away from the Cap’n Crunch, but where have we heard this before? On the positive side, his BB% (8%) remained unchanged year-over-year as did his CT% (86%), but a 59-point drop in his BABIP (extra poundage didn’t help that metric) resulted in a 62 point drop in his BA. He also had 24 fewer XBH’s in just nine fewer at-bats, so this is a critical year for Sandoval, who could find himself in Triple-A if he has a poor spring and Mark DeRosa is healthy.
Miguel Cabrera (1B-DET) – Cabrera’s struggles with alcohol continued this week with his latest DUI arrest. The situation has to be embarrassing for both Cabrera and the Tigers, but I don’t see much fantasy impact here. He’s not getting suspended, and I’m pretty sure he was pounding the Jack and Cokes last year while batting a healthy .328/.420/.622 while finishing second in the MVP chase. Let’s just hope the club gets him the help he needs before someone gets killed.
Jake Arrieta (SP-BAL) – With Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman in the fold, Arrieta gets somewhat overlooked, but he’s reportedly already done enough to impress new manager Buck Showalter. That could make him a favorite to win one of the three open rotation slots behind Jeremy Guthrie and Matusz. Arrieta was less than impressive last year in his 100.1 big league innings, recording a 52:48 K:BB and 4.66 ERA. Arrieta had a 1.85 ERA in 11 Triple-A starts before joining the Orioles, but a .241 BABIP and 4.2 BB/9 makes such performances unlikely going forward. Look for Arrieta to eventually settle in as a solid No. 4 starter, perhaps as early as this season.
Chris Sale (SP-CHW) – This could change at some point this year, but the White Sox appear set to roll with Sale as a reliever to open 2011. I couldn’t disagree more with the decision despite the White Sox losing J.J. Putz and Bobby Jenks to free agency. Why spend a top-15 pick on a reliever? Sale was drafted in June last year and took all of two months to find himself on the South Side where he struck out 32 batters in just 23.1 innings. We’ll see how this pans out this spring, but for now, consider Sale in competition with Matt Thornton for ninth inning duties.
Julio Borbon (CF-TEX) – Borbon was named the Rangers’ starting center fielder by manager Ron Washington on Thursday. Not a big surprise, though I sort of expected some competition with David Murphy. Borbon is an intriguing fantasy pickup, as he’s stolen 34 bases in 595 career big league at-bats. Borbon’s .327 OBP in that span is a concern, and he’ll likely open as the #9 hitter barring a big spring, so his upside is curtailed quite a bit in that scenario. Factor in below average power and you have a fourth-tier OF. Still, he’s just 25, so there’s room for some growth here.
Jake McGee (RP-TB) – Joe Maddon confirmed this week that McGee will be used out of the bullpen this year despite previous reports having him act as a starter this spring. It’s a move that makes sense given McGee’s status as a recent Tommy John survivor as well as the Rays being stacked in the rotation and lacking in the bullpen due to all the free agent defections this winter. McGee was very impressive in his return last year, putting up a 127:36 K:BB over 105.2 innings between Double-A and Triple-A before a brief, but impressive cup of coffee in Tampa Bay. He’s an early front-runner to close games for the Rays, though Kyle Farnsworth should get consideration as well.
Jose Bautista (3B-TOR) – Bautista finalized a five-year $64 million extension on Thursday, parlaying one great year into a huge payday. Albert Pujols has had 10 great years, so I wonder what sort of deal he’ll end up with? Anyway, I’m not expecting Bautista to fall off the cliff and these Adrian Beltre / Brady Anderson comparisions are ludicrious. Beltre’s big year in 2004 was an outlier and Anderson was hitting the PEDs…allegedly, while Bautista radically changed his swing and also had a huge September the prior year that gets somewhat overlooked. He has his limitations, mainly an overall lack of athleticism and an inability to hit much more than .260. I’ll forecast some drop-off, but I’m also setting the over/under on his homers at 39.
J.P. Arencibia (C-TOR) – I figured the Jays would blow this and sign some bum along the lines of Rod Barajas to stunt Arencibia’s development, but the Dodgers did teams a favor and did that themselves. That leaves Arencibia and Jose Molina as the Toronto backstops, with J.P. likely to get the lion’s share of the playing time. All Arencibia has done in his minor league career is homer once every 19.5 at-bats, a ratio that improved to a Bautista-like 12.2 last year in Triple-A Las Vegas. He’ll probably struggle to hit much more than .260 and his minor league EYE is a paltry 0.27, but he’ll also be a cheap source for 20 home runs in 2011.
Brandon League (RP-SEA) – League should be at or near the top of your non-closer relievers. David Aardsma is expected to miss the first two weeks of the regular season and possibly more, leaving League to closer initially, and if he does well, permanently. Aardsma regressed last year, losing 1.2 on his K/9 ratio and gaining 0.24 on his BB/9 mark. He allowed more homers and probably should have had an ERA above four given a .235 BABIP. He did finish strong, but the hip is concerning. League is no sure bet himself, as his K/9 dropped from 9.2 to 6.4 year-over-year while is walk rate jumped from 2.5 to 3.1. Don’t count out Daniel Cortes and Chris Ray, but this is a great opportunity for League to show he has the talent to close long term.
Carlos Santana (C-CLE) – Don’t panic over reports that Santana is taking ground balls at first base. It’s purely a move to provide Santana with the occasional day off from the catching grind. After all, it’s not like the Indians have Johnny Bench waiting in the wings – the backup catcher is likely going to be the light-hitting Lou Marson. As you know, Santana is a career .290/.401/.499 hitter in the minors, a mark that has only risen the last couple years. It wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see Santana finish as a top-five fantasy catcher as early as this season.
Brandon Webb (SP-TEX) – Webb is reportedly progressing well in his rehab and appears to be on track for a rotation slot come Opening Day. He’s tossed just four innings since the 2008 season. I don’t have a medical degree, so I can’t tell you much about what a “shoulder debridement” is, but I do know than not having a torn labrum is a good thing. Missing two seasons obviously isn’t encouraging and neither is pitching in Texas, but Webb is (was?) an extreme groundball pitcher with great control, so consider him an intriguing sleeper.
