James Shields - James Shields is a popular bounceback candidate in 2011, a sentiment that I'm willing to go along with to a point. Shields' ERA and winning percentage have deteriorated significantly the past two seasons, and it's worth examining the how and why to determine just what we should expect this year. Shields has always been a flyball pitcher with excellent control, but last year the primary source of his poor performance was a HR rate that has now jumped 0.50/9 since 2008. Shields did allow 5% fewer ground balls last season, and his HR/FB rate jumped as well, so certainly some of the ERA spike was warranted. Shields also managed a career high in K/9, and a BABIP that jumped 33 points despite a nearly identical LD% to 2009. What ratio to use when applying blame to luck or poor design is anyone's guess, but it seems clear to me that Shields is miscast as an ace-level pitcher, but is a perfectly acceptable alternative in the middle of a rotation. Expecting 12-15 wins, a solid WHIP, and a mid-4.00's ERA with a passel of K's sounds reasonable.
Reid Brignac - Where has Reid Brignac's power gone? This is a guy that hit 41 homers between A and AA at the ages of 20 and 21 (with 15 SB's each year as well), but hasn't managed to do a whole lot since. Brignac clearly has some contact issues, but a potential 15/15 guy at a very weak AL SS position is hard to ignore. I'd certainly feel comfortable taking the over on our power and speed projections with Brignac, and settling for a bit of AVG degradation.
Phil Coke - I try not to be so horribly negative about teams trying something different, but with Phil Coke moving into the Tiger rotation I just can't see it differently. Coke was reasonably successful in the Tiger bullpen last year, but with a BB/9 rate in the mid-3.00's and a HR rate of under 0.3 despite only allowing 35% GB's, I can't help but think an ERA closer to 5.00 than 4.00 is in the offing. His K rate is likely to drop into the 6.00 range as well, giving him very little to offer as a starter in most formats. I'd prefer to stay away and let someone take this risk.
Alex Avila - Alex Avila is a bit under the radar after a very poor 2010, and I'd feel very comfortable slotting the 24 year old in as my 2nd catcher. Last year's struggles were due partly to an expected return to average power, but also due to a BABIP that finished the season about 65 points below expectations. Avila's solid BB rate will certainly help in OBP-based formats, which when combined with a likely luck-based average boost from last year will return his performance to near backstop-average, with the requisite amount of upside that you'd expect from a 24 year old.
Tsuyoshi Nishioka - Nishioka is the likely starter somewhere in the middle of the infield for the Twins (probably at 2B), and from early reports the 26 year old could be a reasonable regular in the middle infield, offering modest assistance across the board. I've seen projections all over the place for Nishioka thus far, but his translated stats seem to paint a 265/345/390 sort of a picture, with likely high single-digit HR's and perhaps 15-20 steals. All in all, a reasonable guy to have around, particularly if he ends up logging time at both middle infield spots.
Danny Valencia - I'm a bit surprised at the positive vibes on Danny Valencia, especially since his debut was fueled by a BABIP about 30-35 points above expectations. To be fair, Valencia has consistently posted high BABIP's throughout his minor league career, so perhaps that will stick....leaving him as a 300/340/430 guy with no speed. Sure, that has some value, but I see very little upside potential here. He isn't likely to get any luckier AVG-wise, he's probably maxed out around 15 homers, and he won't get faster. At best he's slightly above average, and in my mind it's more likely that he's going to be below-average.
Logan Morrison - I'm irrationally excited about Logan Morrison's first full year with the Fish, as I see him being the type of player that everyone thinks Dustin Ackley will become: a #2 or #3 hitter performing in the 300/400/475 range. He is yet another player that is more valuable in OBP-based formats to be sure, but even in traditional leagues I expect him to offer positive value as an OF this season.
Clint Barmes - Mired in the middle of quite possibly the worst team in baseball, Clint Barmes still appears to be a reasonable candidate to bounce back in 2011. The 31 year old has had two straight years of severely unfortunate BABIP's, and last year his power and speed completely disappeared as well. It's possible that he's just done....the sudden spike in walk rate combined with the drop in everything else is sometimes indicative of a guy just taking pitches because he can't drive them anymore, but at 31 I would be willing to take a late-game flier on him. There's little competition for him at SS, and the upside (perhaps 270/325/425 with 10-15 HR and SB) is reasonable given the likely cost.
Wilson Ramos - Predicting when a perpetual incumbent will be unseated is tricky business, but with Pudge Rodriguez getting close to the rocking chair, Wilson Ramos has the opportunity to provide some value in deeper formats as early as this year. The word is right now that Ramos will get the majority of the playing time, and while I'm skeptical of that right off the bat I do think that the 23 year old has enough potential to warrant a 2nd catcher spot in NL-only leagues that don't value OBP immediately. His peak is likely to be solidly average in both the contact and power areas, but his major issue will be that Derek Norris will be just a few years behind him and is potentially a much better hitter. Still, Ramos probably has a few years of solid 2nd-catcher value in him.
Matt LaPorta - LaPorta is someone that was anticipated ever since he began his minor league career with 12 HR's in 30 games in 2007. He had been moderately productive on his way up the ladder until last year, which was basically an unmitigated disaster at the big-league level. A hip injury is a possible culprit....a lack of ability to make enough contact is another. I'd bet a bit more on the former than the latter, a guess that our projection of 256-21-75 seems to agree with. He's a reasonable later-round choice in AL-only formats if you can load up elsewhere.
James McDonald - I'm a huge proponent of boosting K/9 over most other stats in analyzing pitchers, so obviously I like James McDonald as much as the next guy. His FIP ERA of 3.12 last year is elite-level, and the 8.54 K/9 is fantastic. I do think that McDonald could be solid this year, but with an offense that is only half-constructed and an HR rate (0.50) that belies his flyball tendencies, I think expectations should be tempered just a bit. He'll probably be the Pirates' best starter, and he'll probably provide value in most formats. That's about as far as I'll go.
Brad Emaus - We're heading into deep sleeper category here, but Brad Emaus seems to have a legitimate shot to win the 2B job in Flushing, and coming off a 298/395/495 season (albeit in environmentally-friendly Vegas) he's likely to provide more value than Luis Castillo if that comes to pass.....and frankly, even if it doesn't. Emaus' peak performance would probably be something like 260/350/420 with a handful of steals, something that might be acceptable to a single-league player but is likely only worth a bench spot in most mixed leagues. Still, they call them deep sleepers for a reason.
Xavier Nady - It appears that Xavier Nady is going to get regular, consistent PT for the first time since 2008, and being that that PT will come in Arizona he immediately warrants some interest. Asking him to return to 50+ XBH is probably too tall of an order, but he should provide enough value in traditional formats (i.e. - not OBP-driven styles) that he merits rostering in the majority of them.
Kila Ka'aihue - Cheap power. That's what you'll get here. Ka'aihue has sandwiched 38 and 32 HR years around a disappointing 17 in 2009, so I guess it'd be reasonable to use 15-20 as a minimum standard for expectations for him for 2011. The main issues with Kila are contact rate, which seems somewhat manageable, and opportunity. With he, Butler, and Hosmer gunning for two jobs going forward, he isn't likely to have a lot of leash. For now he's a good cheap power source, but I wouldn't expect more than 1 year out of him in this situation.
Justin Smoak - I really like this kid....I'd like him a lot more if there were going to be any runners on base for him to drive in. 218/307/371 isn't much for a rookie line, but the 24 year old had a BABIP that was over 100 points under expectations. Turn that line into, say, 270/360/430 and it starts to look a little more promising. Add a little growth, and you've got yourself a bonafide 1B sleeper in AL-only and deeper mixed formats.
