Vance Worley shut down a desperate Braves offense for 5 shutout innings on Saturday allowing just a lone hit and two walks while striking out 3. Worley is 1-1 in 5 appearances and 2 starts, with a 1.38 ERA, and 0.92 WHIP. There’s a little bit of good fortune at work here. His .179 OBA is partially the result of a very favorable .221 OBHIP% and his 1.38 ERA is built in large part on a highly favorable 94.3% LOB% … and he’s walking 2.7/9. His current rate of performance is unsustainable, which is not to say he’s not pitching well. I want to see more but he might be a slightly sub-4.00 NL starter when he settles in. Let’s keep in mind he only had 45.1 AAA IP under his belt when promoted. But a more reasonable OBHIP% and LOB% will make him look like an entirely different pitcher.
Homer Bailey struck out a career-high 10 on Saturday but he only got 15 outs before being asked to leave. He needed 120 pitches to get those 15 outs because he allowed 6 hits and three walks. Bailey has pitched pretty well since returning from shoulder issues but he may have just pitched himself out of the ALDS. He finishes 4-3 with a 4.59 ERA but he was 3-1, 3.71 over his last 9 starts. That may be more in line with what Homer is right now. He’s thrown 117.1 IP over two seasons with 38 starts and he should be just about ready to assume his role with the big club. I like that he cut his BB rate nearly a full walk/9 this year to 3.2 and upped his K rate nearly a full K to 7.79 I’m calling 2011 a breakout year . I believe 13-15 wins and a sub-4.00 ERA is well with his capabilities.
Alejandro Sanabia was pulled from yesterday’s scheduled start with a stiff elbow and he is likely done for the season. He post a very nice debut campaign going 5-3 in 15 appearances, 12 starts, and 72.1 IP, with a 3.73 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and a slightly favorable 72.1% LOB%. He held opponents to a .266 OBA with a slightly unfavorable .302 OBHIP%. Alejandro limited his walks (1.9/9) and kept the ball in the ballpark (0.7 HR/9) but posted a sub-6 K/9 (5.85). That’s not a deal breaker by any means but it helps define his projectable ceiling. He also throw a few more fly balls than you’d like to see (and 0.78 GB/FB) and was a bit lucky with a 5.7% HR/FB. All in all his first 70+ IP in the majors were pretty good. Still his low K rate and his good fortune in his HR/FB% indicates there’s just as much reason to believe 2011 won’t be as good as there is that he’ll get better. His low K rate also keeps him from being a top shelf pitching prospect. He was at 6.9 in AA this season over 84.1 IP. If he could inch closer to that at the MLB level, you’d be talking about a very good prospect at that point.
Livan Hernandez had had considerable success this year against this afternoon’s opponent, the Mets. Hernandez is 1-1 over 4 appearances good for 26.2 IP with a crisp 2.03 ERA. He has allowed 22 hits and 8 walks in that span giving him at 1.12 WHIP, which in turn suggests an ERA closer to 3.50, so Livan has had some luck against the Mets as well. Carlos Beltran has hit .323 off Livan in 31 career ABs with a pair of HRs. David Wright has hit .286 off of Hernandez in 42 career ABs with a .643 SLG% including 4 HRs
Wandy Rodriguez will not make his final scheduled start today due to a stiff back. He finishes 11-12 with a 3.60 ERA, and 1.29 WHIP which pretty much suggest his ERA due to a neutral 69.4% LOB%. Opponents hit .250 with a slightly unfavorable .310 BHIP% which indicates he could have been a bit luckier there but overall, what you see if what you get. His 3.09 ERA in 2009 was mainly the product of his very favorable 79.4% LOB%. Otherwise his 2009 looks a lot like his 2010 and his 2008. With all the usual disclaimers, there’s every reason to expect something very similar to this year next year.
Nationals manager Jim Riggleman says he’d be comfortable with Danny Espinosa as his second baseman next year. He’s also prepared to ride out n extended MLB learning curve for Espinosa the way the Red Sox did with Dustin Pedroia in his coming out and the way the White Sox have with Gordon Beckham who has hit .310 in the second half after hitting over 100 points less in the first half of the year. That’s probably good because Espinosa has been hot and cold and he sits with a .226 AVG (although with an unfavorable .246 BHIP%), a borderline 7.9% BB rate, and a scary 28.0% K rate. Still, Riggleman is right, this seems to be one reasonable approach to developing middle infielders. Toss them in the deep end and as long as they play decent defense, allow them to take their time developing their offense. Even Danny’s middle infield partner Ian Desmond has followed a similar path. In June Desmond’s BA dropped to a low of .248 but he’s hot .292 after the break.
