Adrian Beltre – On Friday, the Red Sox announced that their power-hitting third baseman will miss the final weekend of the season to be with his pregnant wife. In his first year with Boston, Beltre belted 28 HRs and hit .321/.365/.553 to go along with 102 RBI and 326 Total Bases. While Fenway is one of the friendliest parks for right handed hitters, Beltre actually hit better on the road (.953/.881), which makes me believe he can post similar numbers again next season. One concern is that Beltre enjoyed a .331 BABIP compared to his career mark of .294, so his OBP and batting average should dip in ’11, but he remains a solid option at the hot corner.
Carlos Carrasco – The Indians’ 23-year old right hander makes his final start of 2010 later today against the White Sox. After struggling in 22 innings with the Tribe last season, Carrasco has been much improved in his 38 innings in 2010. He owns a 6.75 K/9, 2.56 BB/9 and 1.16 HR/9. Carrasco has benefited from an unsustainable LOB% of 85% and his FIP is nearly a run above his ERA (4.20 to 3.26). However, because it’s such a small sample, I’m not too concerned about that difference. It’s encouraging to see Carrasco rake up the ground balls to the tune of a 58% GB%, which is 10% higher than in 2009. In 150 minor league innings this season, Carrasco was solid but not spectacular (7.96 K/9, 3.87 FIP). Overall, he’s shown enough at the big league level to be worth a late round flier next season.
C.J. Wilson – C.J. Wilson’s first season as a full-time SP since 2005 has been a rousing success. He enters today’s start against the Angels with a 7.51 K/9, 0.45 HR/9, 3.60 FIP and 3.35 ERA. There are a few concerns, however, that you should consider when determining Wilson’s value for next season’s draft or auction. He posted an unsightly 4.12 BB/9 and enjoyed a likely unsustainable BABIP of .271. It’s also very unlikely that Wilson can finish another season allowing less than half of a homer per game, especially when half his starts are in Texas. Additionally, his xFIP is 4.23 which is nearly a run higher than his ERA. Overall, there are reasons to be apprehensive of Wilson heading into next season but he did show some positive signs that can hopefully be built upon in 2011.
Brian Duensing – Brian Duensing will make his final regular season start of 2010 when he faces the Blue Jays later today. For the season, Duensing owns a 5.37 K/9, 2.22 BB/9 and 0.72 HR/9. Duensing has benefited from an 82% LOB% as well as a .273 BABIP which helps explain the difference between his ERA (2.44) and FIP (.374). One positive sign for Duensing is that he’s increased his GB% from 45% in 84 innings last season to 52% in ’10. Looking toward next season, don’t expect Duensing to increase his strikeout rate by much as he’s never posted high K/9 marks in his minor or major league career. However, if Duensing can continue to generate ground balls, he might be worth a spot in deep leagues. Remember, he’ll get to face plenty of bad offenses next season since the Twins have the Royals and Indians in their division.
Brett Anderson – Brett Anderson toes the rubber for the final time in 2010 later today against the light-hitting Mariners. Anderson’s ERA and FIP are very strong, sitting at 2.91 and 3.32, respectively, in 105 innings this season. He’s posted a 5.50 K/9 and tallied an impressive 55% GB%. Anderson’s also done an excellent job limiting his walks (1.79 BB/9) and HRs (0.51 HR/9) but I’m not convinced he’s able to maintain such low rates moving forward, especially the miniscule number of HRs. It’ll be interesting to see if Anderson can improve his K/9 rate since he did post excellent marks throughout his minor league career. If he can improve his strikeout rate, Anderson’s value will skyrocket. But with such a small sample size of data, it’s hard to tell how well Anderson will perform next season so he’s a bit of a risk in your auction or draft.
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